UFC 279 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jake Collier vs. Chris Barnett: How to Get Big Favorite at +700 (Saturday, September 10)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC heavyweight Jake Collier
- Jake Collier and Chris Barnett kick off UFC 279's regular prelims on ESPNews.
- Collier is a sizable favorite over Barnett, who missed weight for the heavyweight bout.
- Sean Zerillo explains why he's targeting the total in this fight.
Jake Collier vs. Chris Barnett Odds
Heavyweights will kick off the televised portion of the UFC 279 preliminary card when Jake Collier meets Chris Barnett.
Barnett is a deceivingly athletic big man, but after his struggles on the scale for this fight, he faces even longer odds when he meets heavy favorite Collier, who's alternated wins and losses during his current 12-fight streak of inconsistency.
Who ultimately wins this one? Let's look at the matchup.
Tale of the Tape
| Collier | Barnett | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-7 | 22-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:06 | 8:43 |
| Height | 6'3" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 230 lbs. | 265 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/25/1988 | 6/14/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.67 | 3.60 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.65 | 5.59 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 37% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.81 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 0% |
| TD Def | 67% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0 |
Barnett missed weight on Friday, coming in 1.5 pounds over the heavyweight limit, making him the second heavyweight in UFC history to miss weight.
Neither Collier nor Barnett has a heavyweight frame. Still, Collier is the much bigger man in this matchup (4 inches taller, three-inch reach advantage), and he seemingly has Barnett covered skill for skill.
Moreover, Collier fights at a higher pace (+2.07 strikes landed per minute) and has substantially superior cardio. Barnett tends to wilt halfway through his fights, and his conditioning won’t improve for Saturday, considering the weight miss.
Aside from landing a stunning knockout – as he did against Gian Villante – it’s difficult to envision Barnett winning this fight.
Chris Barnett fight week!! #UFC279pic.twitter.com/2Aadntp8uL
— Pure Finishes (@PureKnockouts) September 4, 2022
Collier should control the minute-winning with relative ease and seemingly has a substantial grappling advantage if the fight hits the mat.
Collier has looked to wrestle more in his recent matchups against heavyweights, which is an encouraging sign for his Fight IQ.
Collier vs. Barnett Pick
While I don’t see value on either side of the moneyline or the total for this matchup, Collier to win by submission (projected +544, listed +700 at FanDuel) is one of my favorite prop bets on Saturday.
If he pursues takedowns, Collier may cut right through Barnett, as he did with Chase Sherman.
The Pick: Jake Collier Wins by Submission (+700, 0.15 at FanDuel)
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