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UFC 282 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley: Play These Distance Props (Saturday, December 10)

UFC 282 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley: Play These Distance Props (Saturday, December 10) article feature image
Credit:

Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Chris Curtis

  • The ESPN2 preliminary card for UFC 282 kicks off with middleweights Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley.
  • Oddsmakers expect Buckley to win a quick fight, but our own Sean Zerillo disagrees.
  • Below, he details the various ways he's betting this potential action-packed bout.

Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley Odds

Curtis Odds
+145
Buckley Odds
-170
Over/Under
1.5 (-180 / +145)
Venue
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
Time
8 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN2
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

After recently snapping an eight-fight winning streak, Chris Curtis looks to start anew when he meets fellow middleweight Joaquin Buckley on Saturday’s UFC 282 preliminary card.

Curtis is the underdog as he takes on hard-hitting Buckley, who has 11 knockouts in 15 career wins.

Check out the breakdown for the matchup below.

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Buckley
Record 29-9 15-5
Avg. Fight Time 10:36 9:41
Height 5’10” 5’10”
Weight (pounds) 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach (inches) 75″ 76″
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Date of birth 7/15/1987 4/27/1994
Sig Strikes Per Min 6.00 3.61
SS Accuracy 58% 32%
SS Absorbed Per Min 6.39 3.42
SS Defense 52% 54%
Take Down Avg 0.00 1.35
TD Acc 0% 30%
TD Def 100% 66%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.0

I’m surprised to see both the under and inside-the-distance props so heavily juiced for this middleweight scrap; both Joaquin Buckley and Chris Curtis are more welterweight in statute, and neither cuts a ton of weight to make 185.

Curtis is an excellent pocket boxer who is generally conscious of minute-winning and where he stands in his fight.

He doesn’t load up for power on any individual shot but mixes strikes to the head and body and wears down opponents with attritional damage.

Buckley is the more powerful but less accurate striker (32%). He should land the more impactful shots – and create more damage with each successful strike relative to Curtis. Still, I expect “Action Man” to move forward, applying more pressure and landing more volume with a more measured game plan.

While Buckley is flashy – and he still owns one of the coolest knockouts in the history of combat sports – I would rate his power closer to average than elite for the middleweight division.

And while Buckley may be the more well-rounded fighter, I doubt he’ll be able to change levels and take Curtis (100% takedown defense) down to the mat.

Curtis vs. Buckley Pick

Of the two fighters, I view Curtis as the more durable man, so I’m not sure that Buckley should be favored because of his perceived finishing upside.

I’ll back Curtis on the moneyline at a small edge at +140 or better but see a significantly larger edge on the fight to go to a decision (projected +115, listed +178 at FanDuel) or Curtis to win by decision (projected +322, listed +480 at Rivers).

The distance or decision prop should be much closer to the welterweight decision average (47.2%) than the middleweight average (40.4%).

The Picks:

  • Fight goes to Decision (+178, 0.75u at FanDuel)
  • Chris Curtis (+145, 0.25u at DraftKings)
  • Chris Curtis wins by Decision (+475, 0.1u at Rivers)

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