UFC 282 PrizePicks: Top Prop Options for 18-year-old Raul Rosas Jr., Magomed Ankalaev, Paddy Pimblett, More
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Raul Rosas Jr.
The last UFC pay-per-view event of the year is here. After a fair number of shakeups, we're left with Saturday's 12-fight card (6:30 p.m. ET), featuring a light heavyweight title fight between Magomed Ankalaev and former champion Jan Blachowicz.
If you're looking to get in some action from a state without legal sports betting, PrizePicks has you covered. The site allows player-prop style bets on UFC fights.
Read on for my favorite UFC 282 parlay of the weekend, with two additional lines to juice the payouts if you're so inclined.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC 282 PrizePicks Parlay
Raul Rosas Jr. Under 45.5 Significant Strikes
Raul Rosas Jr. will officially become the youngest fighter in the UFC on Saturday when he makes his promotional debut just two months after his 18th birthday. Rosas punched his UFC ticket with a win on the Contender Series while just 17.
However, that win saw him land just 20 significant strikes in what was primarily a grappling match against Mando Gutierrez. This time he's taking on Jay Perrin, who is likely to be less of a threat stylistically to Rosas.
Rosas is a grappling prodigy with heavily underdeveloped striking. Look for him to lean on his strengths here and turn this into a grappling match as well. Perrin also likes to look for takedowns, so don't expect much standup action.
We'll be relying on the official scorer a bit here, as some strikes on the ground count as significant while others do not. Still, Rosas would need to more than double his rate from his debut to clear this line, even in a 15-minute fight.
When you factor in the odds of this one ending early (essentially 50% at -115), that's a fairly comfortable edge on his significant strikes.
Joaquin Buckley Over 40.5 Significant Strikes
Joaquin Buckley has cleared 40 significant strikes in three of his last four fights, and five of his eight total UFC bouts. That's not quite enough of an edge in and of itself. Nor is his projection, which I currently have at just over 48.
However, stylistically this one has all the makings of a firefight. Buckley is taking on "The Action Man" Chris Curtis, with both fighters generally willing to stand and trade.
Curtis has absorbed more than six significant strikes per minute in the UFC, without attempting a single takedown. Given his style, you'd think there would be some knockout concern – but Curtis has been stopped by strikes just once in 38 professional fights.
Buckley's power is certainly a concern here, though, making the over 80.5 fantasy points a solid choice as well. He'd clear that one with a finish in either of the first two rounds even if he fell short of the strikes prop.
However, I'm willing to hitch my wagon to the durability of Curtis here. At worst, he should be able to last long enough to go over this line.
- Magomed Ankalaev Fight Time Under 17.5 Minutes: The weighted average of all the round props in this fight gives me just under 15 minutes of fight time, and the under 3.5 rounds is favored at DraftKings. This isn't a huge edge, but the under is certainly the sharper side here.
- Paddy Pimblett Fight Time Under 11.0 Minutes: "The Baddy" hasn't seen a third round yet in the UFC. His ultra-aggressive style probably doesn't lend itself well to deeper fights, nor does his habit of getting extremely out of shape between fights. If he doesn't pick up a finish in the first round, I expect Jared Gordon to land one in the second.