UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill: Take Underdog in Main Event (Saturday, January 21)
Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Glover Teixeira of Brazil
- A new UFC light heavyweight champion will be crowned on Saturday following the Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill main event.
- Former champ and longtime vet Teixeira is an underdog to fast-rising contender Hill.
- Sean Zerillo breaks down the PPV headliner and shares his plus-money bet for the fight below.
Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill Odds
UFC light heavyweight gold is on the line on Saturday night in Brazil as former champion Glover Teixeira hopes to reclaim his belt when he meets first-time title challenger Jamahal Hill in the UFC 283 main event.
Hill, a 31-year-old Michigan native, owns a 5-1-1 record in the UFC and enters on a three-fight winning streak (all by KO/TKO), including a fourth-round stoppage over Thiago Santos in August.
Teixeira, who will make his 23rd walk to the UFC octagon on Saturday, will hope to rebound from his final-minute loss to Jiri Prochazka at UFC 275. At the time of the stoppage (4:32 of the fifth round), Teixeira led on the judges’ scorecards.
Below, I’ll provide my analysis and projections for the fight card finale (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ pay-per-view) and utilize those factors to bet on the UFC 283 main event of Jamahal Hill vs. Glover Teixeira for the vacant belt.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||9:46||7:16|
|Weight (pounds)||205 lbs.||205 lbs.|
|Date of birth||10/28/1979||5/19/1991|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||3.80||6.46|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||3.93||3.51|
|Take Down Avg||2.20||0.00|
Hill is the superior athlete and the taller and longer fighter (two-inch height advantage and a three-inch reach advantage).
Moreover, he is a much younger man. As a reminder, when there is at least a 10-year age gap between UFC opponents, the younger fighter has won 71.3% of the time (264-106) at average odds closer to -149, or 59.8%.
While that trend can’t be applied equally across divisions – heavyweights age differently than flyweights, for example – it speaks to the market’s inability to accurately price well-known fighters against rising talents.
Hill should have a severe speed advantage in the striking exchanges. Teixeira can keep things competitive on the feet; his boxing is highly underrated for someone with such exemplary grappling skills. Still, Hill’s speed and length should cause him to connect with Teixeira, whose striking defense (52%) and chin rank are among his most outstanding deficiencies.
Teixeira seemingly gets hurt at some point, or multiple points, in each of his fights, and it seems inevitable that – if the two strike it out for an extended period – Hill will put Glover on skates at some point too.
Still, it’s challenging to envision Hill having enough success landing and winning minutes in the fight without finishing his much older opponent.
As a result, I tend to feel that Hill’s knockout prop or inside-the-distance prop should be priced closer to his moneyline than it currently is.
Conversely, Teixeira has more ways to win the matchup and retains all the grappling upside in the fight.
Typically, the fighter with a definitive grappling advantage is lined as the favorite in an MMA fight. However, the prospect of betting on a chinny, 43-year-old Teixeira against a young, hungry and powerful finisher is petrifying,
Still, if Teixeira can get Hill to the mat, he will look like a dominant favorite – and put himself completely out of harm’s way. He may finish the fight with one takedown; Teixeira is as good at passing and finishing from the top position as anyone in MMA.
Hill is a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. It’s possible that he can survive a round with Teixeira on top of him. Still, I would have to imagine that – eventually – the Brazilian breaks through Hill’s defenses and finishes Hill from the top with either ground and pound or an arm triangle, or he takes the back as Hill tries to stand and locks in a rear-naked choke.
And even if he can’t secure the finish, Teixeira should be able to rack up control time, as well as a commanding significant strike advantage, by landing one takedown in each round.
Hill’s takedown defense (65% career) looked strong in the early going against Thiago Santos. Still, he permitted five takedowns in the third round (3:50 of control time) and trailed on the scorecards before securing a fourth-round finish. In his UFC debut in 2020, Hill also permitted six takedowns (2:19 of control time) in a victory.
While it’s impressive that he was able to win those fights despite the takedowns, it speaks to my confidence that Teixeira can put Hill on his back early and often if a striker like Santos had success wrestling.
Teixeira’s technique isn’t aesthetic – like an American wrestler – but it is effective (2.2 takedowns per 15 minutes, 37% accuracy). The Brazilian seemingly collides with or falls into his opponents, snatches a single leg, and makes them tumble over with him on top.
It’s not fair to say that if the fight stays standing, it’s Hill’s to lose or that if it hits the mat, Teixeira should run away with it. Still, Teixeira should be more competitive in the striking than Hill is in the grappling.
Teixeira is the best grappler Hill has ever faced – but Hill is far from the best striker whom Teixeira has seen. For that reason alone, it isn’t easy to put Teixeira below 50% in this matchup, regardless of his age and physical attributes.
Even if the bet doesn’t work out in this one instance, you’ll likely come out ahead if you consistently bet on fighters with all the grappling upside in pick’em spots, never mind at plus money.
Teixeira vs. Hill Pick
I projected Glover Teixeira as a slight underdog (48.5%, +106 implied odds) in this matchup, and I would bet his moneyline down to +115 (46.5%) at a 2% edge compared to my number.
In the winning method market, I see slight value on Teixeira’s submission prop (projected +243, listed +275 at BetRivers) and his inside-the-distance or finish prop (projected +158, listed +175 at DraftKings). However, I would prefer to bet his moneyline at a similar edge.
While I would lean toward the Unders or the inside-the-distance prop, that market is far too juiced for my liking.
I expect the bout to end by finish around 85% of the time (-573 implied), but you have to lay at least -550 (Caesars) to place that bet, and both the Under 2.5 (-220) and 3.5 (-340) are equally juiced beyond playability.
The Pick: Glover Teixeira (+120 at DraftKings, bet to +115)