UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield: How to Bet These Expected Fireworks (Saturday, February 11)

UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield: How to Bet These Expected Fireworks (Saturday, February 11) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Alonzo Menifield

  • Saturday's UFC 284 pay-per-view main card kicks off with light heavyweights Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield.
  • The bout has drawn a lot of betting interest, largely due to the fighters' potential for a quick finish.
  • Below, Billy Ward breaks down the matchup and offers a bet for the fight.

Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield Odds

Crute Odds-190
Menifield Odds+160
Over/Under1.5 (+115 / -145)
VenueRAC Arena in Perth, Australia
Time10 p.m. ET
ChannelESPN+ Pay-per-view
Odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings.

Two exciting light heavyweights, Jimmy Crute and Alonzo Menifield, square off in a bout that promises fireworks on the UFC 284 main card.

The fighters have 10 UFC victories between them. Nine of those have been finishes, with eight occurring in the opening frame.

Both men are aggressive fighters looking to hunt for finishes – and both have considerable defensive flaws in their games.

This is an important fight for Crute, who was very recently regarded as a rising prospect at light heavyweight but has since lost two in a row to top contenders.

He'll need to get through game veteran Menifield to begin his climb back to the top of the division.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time4:376:12
Weight (pounds)205 lbs.205 lbs.
Reach (inches)74"76"
Date of birth3/4/199610/18/1987
Sig Strikes Per Min4.333.91
SS Accuracy56%56%
SS Absorbed Per Min2.763.24
SS Defense50%52%
Take Down Avg4.870.81
TD Acc75%30%
TD Def60%85%
Submission Avg2.00.2

Crute is very impressive from a raw-skills standpoint. He's willing to trade strikes at times, with solid power in his hands and an aggressive kicking game. He's also a talented grappler, racking up takedowns when needed while setting up submissions from top control.

His striking style is all offense. He frequently leads with rear leg kicks, mixing up the strikes at all levels.

WHAT A RIGHT HAND 😳@CruteJim brought the boom at #UFCFightIsland6pic.twitter.com/8ppYRw0YuE

β€” ESPN MMA (@espnmma) October 18, 2020

While he is able to score with those kicks, his inability or unwillingness to disguise them with punches makes them easier for his opponents to defend.

He also has a bad habit of dropping his hands while kicking and throwing power shots. While he's been able to rely on his range and chin to make up for that, his fight against Jamahal Hill exposed the flaw in that method of attack. Hill was able to catch him with lead right hooks twice in the opening minute, with the second shot putting Crute out.

His grappling is well adapted for MMA, looking to establish top position first, do damage second, and hunt submissions third. He wisely looks for submissions – namely the kimura and arm triangle – that don't involve sacrificing position.

However, much of his grappling relies on pure strength in order to work. When fighting off his back, he uses power to create space and get to his feet. Kimuras largely depend on being able to out-muscle your opponent as well. Notably, he was able to submit Paul Craig with one, but in the third round. Crute had the kimura set up on multiple occasions prior to that, but he was able to finish it only once Craig had tired out.

That element of his grappling game matches up very poorly with Menifield. "Atomic" is built like an NFL defensive end, and he is quite possibly the strongest man in the division.

Any reliance on pure strength will be exposed quickly against Menifield.

Menifield is less technically developed than Crute, but he has strong defensive grappling (85% takedown defense) and heavy hands.

SERIOUS power πŸ‘Š @AlonzoMenifield

[ #UFC265 | SaturdayΒ  | LIVE on E+ PPV: https://t.co/s0hnQ0rnOT ] pic.twitter.com/IF2WHlA5e9

β€” UFC (@ufc) August 5, 2021

Working against Menifield is his tendency to throw one or two heavy shots, rather than setting up combinations.

Crute showed poor head movement and reactions in the Anothony Smith fight, getting picked apart with jabs.

Menifield would be well served to test the waters with straight shots before looking to land his trademark bombs.

Crute vs. Menifield Pick

This fight is a near-perfect example of the "shorter height but longer reach" trend that I often reference.

Menifield is two inches shorter – but with a two-inch reach advantage. The shorter frame allows him to carry (considerably) more muscle than Crute while simultaneously being able to control the range.

Beyond just the strength discrepancy, Menifield is an overall better athlete than Crute. Crute has below-average speed and reactions by UFC standards, while Menifield is extremely explosive – at least in short bursts.

If this one goes long, though, Crute has the edge. His top control and leg kicks will both pay dividends as the fight goes on. Against someone like Menifield with questionable-at-best cardio, it gives Crute an edge deep into the fight.

That leaves a few ways to bet this one. I want some combination of Menifield early and Crute late. On the one side, I'll take Menifield to win in under 1.5 rounds on DraftKings at +370. (Make sure you enable the same game parlay: that gives you +370 odds, compared to the +300 on DraftKings' prebuilt "fight parlays" tab.)

For Crute, parlaying his moneyline and over 4.5 minutes (effectively Crute in Round 2 or later) is +160. That's how I'd play it if I weren't planning on watching this one live.

However, I prefer to roll the dice on the live lines – which could swing heavily against Crute if Menifield opens strong.

The Picks: Menifield and Over 1.5 SGP (+370 at DraftKings) | Crute live after Round 1 (at plus money)

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