UFC 287 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Chris Curtis vs. Kelvin Gastelum: +150 Play for Featured Prelim (Saturday, April 9)

Chris Curtis vs. Kelvin Gastelum Odds

Kelvin Gastelum and Chris Curtis took very different paths to get to the UFC.

Gastelum was one of the hottest prospects in the sport, winning The Ultimate Fighter 17 reality series in 2013 at just 21 years old. He's a one-time middleweight title challenger who's looking to work his way back into another shot following a 1-5 skid.

Curtis, meanwhile, had 34 fights under his belt before getting a shot in the UFC, where he ultimately upset Phil Hawes as a last-minute replacement in 2021. Since then "The Action Man" has lived up to his nickname with three knockout wins and a 4-1 UFC record.

This is a must-win fight for Gastelum, but it's certainly not an easy one against a dangerous power puncher in Curtis.

Tale of the Tape

A string of injuries has kept Gastelum out of competition for more than a year and a half, and that layoff followed a rough 1-5 stretch. It wasn't long ago, though, that Gastelum was giving Israel Adesanya a run for his money. Plus, his losing skid came against top competition.

Gasteulum is a solid boxer who mixes in solid kicks, primarily to the legs. His inside leg kicks are a big weapon, especially against orthodox fighters. He makes up for his short reach for the division by swarming with punches from the inside, mixing attacks to the head and body well.

He needs to push a frenetic pace to win minutes on the scorecards, though, as he tends to get picked apart from the outside. That's less of a concern against Curtis – who's also a former welterweight and on the smaller side for the division – but Gastelum is still giving up four inches in reach.

Gastelum is also a strong wrestler, though he doesn't use it as much as I'd like. It could come into play against Curtis, who has 100% takedown defense in the UFC but could be vulnerable to being taken down if he's convinced this fight will be a boxing match.

Curtis is one of the best pure boxers in the UFC, with power in both hands and a willingness to stay in the pocket and trade.

His significant strike defense is a bit misleading; he utilizes a "Philly Shell" style defense that allows him to mitigate damage even when being hit.

Much of the strikes he's taken have technically landed, by Curtis doesn't tend to take a lot of damage.

That defensive style should in theory leave him open to takedowns, though. Fighting out of a more bladed boxing stance makes defending shots difficult, and he's fought in more of a wrestling stance at times. Gastelum should at the very least use the threat of a takedown to force Curtis to change his approach.

Curtis struggles against fighters unwilling to engage with him, though, as Jack Hermansson was able to dance around the outside and frustrate him the entire fight. He also struggled against Joaquin Buckley, getting picked apart at range before turning the tables with a big knockout.

That's hard to do against Gastelum, though, whose never been knocked out in 26 professional fights. He's been dropped, but he always manages to pop right back up as if nothing happened.

While I'd rather a fighter be so defensively sound we don't know how good his chin is, at least we have evidence that it can hold up to some damage.

Curtis vs. Gastelum Pick

What game plan both fighters use here will be crucial to this fight. Curtis isn't a great minute-winner, but if he pushes too hard for a knockout, Gastelum could put him on his back.

Gastelum also desperately needs a win, and he could follow the blueprint laid out by Hermansson in frustrating Curtis. While Gastelum's lack of reach makes that a bit of a challenge, his excellent leg kicks open the door for that possibility.

Ultimately, this one likely comes down to Curtis' power against Gasteulm's chin. I don't see Curtis winning a decision without badly hurting Gastelum, as Curtis usually gets outstruck volume-wise in his fights. Gastelum also has all the grappling upside here, which could win him some minutes if need be.

I'm willing to bet on Gastelum's chin until proven otherwise, and he's the more skilled overall fighter. The -130 at DraftKings is a fair moneyline price to pay, and I'd take it down to about -140. However, Gastelum by decision is the likeliest winning condition here, and that's +150, making it my preferred outcome.

The Pick: Gastlum to win by decision (+150 at DraftKings)