UFC 291 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima: Use This Heavyweight Parlay Piece (Saturday, July 29)

UFC 291 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima: Use This Heavyweight Parlay Piece (Saturday, July 29) article feature image

Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC heavyweight Derrick Lewis

Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima Odds

Lewis Odds
Lima Odds
1.5 (+170 / -210)
Delta Center in Salt Lake City
11 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings

In the lone heavyweight clash at UFC 291, fan favorite Derrick Lewis enters as the underdog against the steadily rising Marcos Rogerio de Lima.

This could be former title challenger Lewis' last chance to reclaim contender status after dropping three straight fights – all via stoppage.

Is Lewis a live dog on Saturday night, or is Lima going to take another step up the ladder?

Let's break down the big men, who were promoted to the UFC 291 main card on the eve of the event.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time8:486:32
Weight (pounds)263.5 lbs.262 lbs.
Reach (inches)79"75"
Date of birth2/7/19856/25/1985
Sig Strikes Per Min2.543.62
SS Accuracy50%56%
SS Absorbed Per Min2.592.83
SS Defense41%51%
Take Down Avg0.591.34
TD Acc28%47%
TD Def52%59%
Submission Avg0.00.5

At age 38, after 38 professional fights, Derrick Lewis might be on his way out of the UFC. He's a loser of four of his past five bouts, all by finish. His durability is seemingly slipping.

Lewis was never a highly skilled MMA fighter. He's a historic power puncher with an incredible ability to stand up against wrestlers and scare strikers into low-volume staring contests.

While he's taking a step down in competition here, Lewis' level of opposition has never mattered as much as those opponents' ability to take a punch.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima seems like a potential nightmare matchup for Lewis. He can hammer Lewis with low kicks – something Lewis, with his relatively skinny legs, has shown disdain for in the past.

Alternatively, Lima can choose to grapple and see if he can keep a man with a career 41% defensive takedown rate on his back. The Brazilian has some underrated submission skills, and I think his submission price (projected +485) is likely undervalued – and an excellent round-robin booster.

Lima has six finish losses on his record, but not because he can't take a punch. He tends to tire the longer his fights extend and has never finished an opponent after the opening frame.

Lewis vs. Lima Pick

Both fighters tend to have seven to 10 minutes of gas in a regular fight; in Utah, they may only have one round, and this fight could get extremely sloppy if it extends beyond the halfway point.

I expect this fight to end 87% of the time (-645 implied odds).

For Lewis vs Lima, I would use the ends inside the distance or "ITD" prop in a parlay, up to -615.

Otherwise, sit back and enjoy the violence.

The Pick: Parlay (-144, 0.5u) at Caesars: Lewis vs. Lima Ends Inside the Distance (-550) & Justin Gaethje vs. Dustin Poirier Ends Inside the Distance (-230)

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