UFC 291 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Gabriel Bonfim vs. Trevin Giles: Wait for This Target Price (Saturday, July 29)

UFC 291 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Gabriel Bonfim vs. Trevin Giles: Wait for This Target Price (Saturday, July 29) article feature image

Buda Mendes/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC welterweight Gabriel Bonfim of Brazil

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Trevin Giles Odds

Bonfim Odds
Giles Odds
1.5 rounds (+120 / -150)
Delta Center in Salt Lake City
Start Time
9:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings

Can Gabriel Bonfim keep his perfect record – and finishing rate – intact when he meets fellow welterweight Trevin Giles in the featured UFC 291 preliminary card bout on Saturday?

The betting market overwhelmingly thinks so, with Bonfim a substantial favorite over the streaky Giles, who quietly looks for this third straight victory.

Does either 170-pounder offer value from a betting perspective? Let's dig in.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time2:3111:40
Weight (pounds)170 lbs.170 lbs.
Reach (inches)72"74"
Date of birth8/20/19978/6/1992
Sig Strikes Per Min6.952.99
SS Accuracy38%54%
SS Absorbed Per Min5.762.09
SS Defense65%59%
Take Down Avg2.981.29
TD Acc100%55%
TD Def100%73%
Submission Avg6.00.3

The younger Bonfim, Gabriel, enters his second UFC fight as a significant favorite against the experienced Giles.

Gabriel Bonfim has finished both wins under the UFC banner by first-round submission, but we successfully bet against his brother, Ismael, as a significant favorite earlier this month.

Of the two brothers, I am higher on Gabriel, who has smooth boxing, underrated power, and a slick, opportunistic submission game.

Giles is the longer fighter (two-inch reach advantage), but Bonfim should have him covered everywhere, skill for skill.

Bonfim should also have the advantages in cardio and durability too.

Bonfim vs. Giles Pick

I projected Bonfim as a -330 favorite – in line with the lower end of the betting market – and I don't see value on either side of this fight.

However, I will be using Bonfim aggressively in DFS, and if his moneyline price drops to -315 or better, I'll consider finding a way to bet him.

I don't see any value concerning the total or the prop market either. Bonfim's potential win condition is appropriately split between his knockout and submission props, and a potential club and sub is always in play against Giles.

Unfortunately, we'll have to wait for a more reasonable line on Bonfim in the future or hope he becomes overhyped after another quick finish and look for a more appropriate spot to bet against him. For now, there are better options.

The Pick: Pass

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