UFC 294 Luck Ratings: 3 Undervalued Fighters on Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 Fight Card (Saturday, October 21)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC bantamweight Sedriques Dumas
Let’s look into some mispriced betting lines for UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 on Saturday afternoon and see which of the pay-per-view event's fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued.
UFC 294 takes place in Abu Dhabi and airs live in the U.S. on Saturday afternoon. The prelims stream on regular ESPN+ starting at 10 a.m. ET (7 a.m. PT) with the five-fight main card commencing at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV ($79.99).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
* Odds as of Monday and via FanDuel
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UFC 294 Odds and Bets
Islam Makhachev (-250) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (+205)
UFC 294 got thrown a major curveball early last week when the planned lightweight title fight between champ Islam Makhachev and Charles Oliveira was scrapped due to a cut suffered by "Do Bronx" in training.
Instead, Makhachev gets a different rematch – this time with featherweight kingpin Alexander Volkanovski, the last man to challenge Makhachev for the title.
That bout was just the second career loss for Volkanovski, and the first since 2013, when he was fighting at welterweight on the regional Australian scene. It was an intensely competitive bout despite the unanimous decision for Makhachev – with one judge giving four rounds to Makhachev and the other two awarding him three in the five-round fight.
Volkanovski made Makhachev look beatable, dropping him in the fifth round and outstriking him by 13 significant strikes over the course of the bout. The grappling was largely controlled by Makhachev, who landed four takedowns and 7:37 of control time throughout the fight.
There's certainly a case to be made that the fight could've gone to Volkanovski, especially since Makhachev was largely ineffective from top position and damage is theoretically rewarded over control.
Either way, Volkanovski certainly performed better than a +205 'dog. The bigger question is about his preparedness for this fight – which he took on just 11 days' notice.
Volkanovski is also coming off elbow surgery shortly after his last fight in July – a featherweight title defense over Yair Rodriguez. His best chance at an upset here is probably through his legendary cardio, which could be a bit behind what we've come to expect from him.
My lean is that Volkanovski wouldn't have taken this fight were he not in fight shape, knowing that it's likely his last chance to become a two-division champion. I also have a suspicion that he's been preparing for Makhachev for quite some time, even when booked to fight other opponents. For Makachev, it's a drastically different fight than he was originally booked for – even if he's theoretically in title-fight shape.
All things considered, I like the underdog here and expect this line to tighten up throughout the week. However, I'll be waiting for DraftKings to drop its point spread lines before making a bet. If "Volkanovski +5.5" is still plus money, that's my preferred way to go. The Australian is virtually un-finishable, and he covered this spread in their first bout.
Verdict: Alexander Volkanovski Undervalued
Khamzat Chimaev (-295) vs. Kamaru Usman (+220)
The UFC 294 co-main event also had an unexpected turn last week.
This card marks the long-awaited return of Khamzat Chimaev to the UFC octagon after his bad weight miss forced the reshuffling of the UFC 279 card. Chimaev has been out of action for more than a year ahead of his middleweight return, and he was originally slated to fight Paulo Costa.
Costa unfortunately had surgery to address some kind of infection just a few weeks ago, and he openly discussed it while not realizing he'd be unable to fight. Apparently the "secret juice" doesn't prevent infections.
Regardless, the UFC found another long-time champion of a lighter-weight division willing to step up and save the fight: former long-reigning welterweight champ Kamaru Usman.
A massive welterweight, Usman had been publicly toying with the idea of moving up to 185 pounds following two losses to Leon Edwards. This appears to be a permanent move with the winner reportedly promised the next title shot against Sean Strickland – a juicy matchup for both grapplers.
The size shouldn't be a huge factor here as both fighters were most recently fighting at welterweight.
Khamzat should be somewhat bigger and stronger with more than a year to prepare for his weight class jump, but not enough to be what decides the fight. The short-notice nature for Usman is interesting, but with this being just a three-round fight, I suspect his cardio will be fine. Like Volkanovski, he's always had an indefatigable gas tank.
However, there's some concern that Usman might just be washed. He's 36, and his second fight against Edwards was a fairly poor performance all around. Of course, maybe Edwards is just that good.
I see this fight as either an early stoppage for Khamzat or a close fight that Usman slowly takes over if he survives the initial blitz.
The one knock on Chimaev has been his cardio, and it's tough to say whether the lack of weight class will improve that, or carrying the extra muscle will make it worse. Either way, a long fight still probably helps Usman.
Broadly speaking I'd say the moneyline odds are fair. I'll be betting some combination of Chimaev early (possibly with an Under 1.5 same-game parlay or just in the first round) with Usman late or live, depending on how all of those props shake out.
Verdict: Fairly Valued Overall
Sedriques Dumas (-178) vs. Abu Azaitar (+138)
This is about to take a bit of a weird turn for the Luck Ratings, but bear with me.
After Abu Azaitar won his UFC debut in 2018, it was nearly three years before we saw him fight again. He was finished by Marc-Andre Barriault in his 2021 return, and he then took another two-plus years off before being booked at UFC 294.
Which begs the question: What has he been doing with his time (or for a living) since then?
Well, apparently he and his brother have spent the better part of the last few years partying with the king of Morocco. His brother Ottman is 0-2 with two first-round defeats during roughly the timeframe that they've spent jetting around with the king.
A 37-year-old fighter going missing from competition for more than two years is concerning in and of itself, but particularly when it doesn't appear he's spent that time improving his skills.
Compare that to Dumas, a hungry 28-year-old with plenty of physical tools. He showed massive improvements between his first two UFC fights, and it's fairly plausible that was the first time he was able to train full-time without holding down another job.
I'm anticipating a continued growth in his skills heading into his first numbered-card appearance.
Books that opened a bit before FanDuel had him around -160 but have quickly adjusted to -180 or so, with FanDuel offering the best line at -178. I'm happy to lock that one in now as it will probably finish closer to -200.
Verdict: Sedriques Dumas Undervalued
Victoria Dudakova (-400) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+285)
This fight wasn't made because the UFC wants to be in the Jinh Yu Frey business. The 38-year-old is riding a three-fight losing skid with a 2-5 record in the UFC overall.
Victoria Dudakova is a 24-year-old Russian former world amateur MMA champion with a perfect 7-0 record with six stoppages.
Except Dudakova hasn't really fought anybody. Her UFC debut came against 6-4 Istela Nunes and was over in just 34 seconds when Nunes posted her arm awkwardly defending a takedown and dislocated it, ending the bout.
While that's not "luck" since she had to execute the throw, it is a somewhat fluky outcome that doesn't tell us much about her skills. Outside of that and her Contender Series fight against Maria Silva, she's fought almost exclusively lower-level competition.
Frey is a seasoned UFC vet who is also 0-1 in split decisions for the promotion. While she's no world-beater, Frey is a major step up in competition for Dudakova. I'm not comfortable laying -400 to find out if a fighter is as good as she's promoted to be – and I'm happy taking close to three-to-one on the chance that she isn't.
Dudakova is certainly a deserving favorite here, but not to the extent the betting line implies.
However, it's continued to shift in her direction since opening, so there's no urgency to make the bet anytime soon. I'll be hoping for +300 or better on Frey, at which point I'd take a small sprinkle.
Verdict: Victoria Dudakova Overvalued
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