UFC 295 Luck Ratings: 5 Undervalued Fighters for New York City (Saturday, November 11)
Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich of Russia
Let's identify some UFC 295 betting angles by assessing the UFC Luck Ratings for Saturday's pay-per-view event in New York City.
The UFC is finishing 2023 strong with a pair of massive PPV cards, and each one features multiple championship fights – the first of which is UFC 295, which goes down live from Madison Square Garden on Saturday night.
Original headliner Jon Jones was scratched from the card due to an injury, but the UFC pivoted to an interim heavyweight title fight – as the co-main event. The main event, meanwhile, now features former middleweight champion Alex Pereira taking on Jiri Prochazka for the vacant light heavyweight belt, a title Prozchaka never lost in the cage.
UC 295 prelims are available on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPNews (8 p.m. ET) before the ESPN+ PPV main card kicks off at 10 p.m. ET ($79.99).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
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At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient.
The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings
UFC 295 Luck Ratings
Alex Pereira (-125) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+105)
As is often the case, main event lines – especially title fights – are released early enough that by fight week, they've had a chance to be bet into shape by early bettors. That generally means less line movement throughout the week, making the hunt for closing-line value a bit trickier.
That's the case here, with this line flipping from Jiri Prochazka as a slight favorite to a slight underdog. It's not a big movement in terms of implied probability, but anytime the favorite flips, it's worth noting.
These two have combined for 43 professional MMA fights with each of them having just one decision.
For Pereira, it was a split decision over Jan Blachowicz. That win secured him his title shot. While the correct fighter had his hand raised, it wasn't exactly a confidence-inspiring performance from Pereira, who was taken down in every round. Still, the Brazilian was building as the fight went on while Blachowicz seemed to be tiring.
Prochazka's lone decision came way back in 2016 for a regional promotion, so it's hard to say that has impacted the line. He's just 3-0 in the UFC, but he's fought top competition for Rizin FF before joining the promotion.
The biggest "luck" factor in Prochazka's recent results is his come-from-behind win over Glover Teixeira to claim UFC gold. Prochazka was down on two of three scorecards heading into the final frame before securing an improbable submission win.
Of course, the biggest unknown here is Prochazka's time off due to a severe shoulder injury. It's been a 17-month layoff since he last stepped in the cage, which prompts significant concern about both ring rust and health.
That explains the line movement as Prochazka is probably the better overall mixed martial artist – if he's at full strength. It wouldn't shock me to see the line slide a bit more toward Pereira, but broadly speaking, it's about right as of this writing on Monday.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Tom Aspinall (-118) vs. Sergei Pavlovich (-102)
This UFC 295 makeshift heavyweight title fight is coming together on just a couple weeks' notice. While this is technically an interim title, it seems likely that Jon Jones will try to make the Stipe Miocic fight upon his return, leading to the winner here being the de facto champion for some time.
Sergei Pavlovich was slated as the backup in the original pairing, though he presumably would've replaced only Miocic based on the changes we've seen. It's somewhat reasonable to assume he was already preparing to fight on this card while Aspinall had nothing on the books.
Neither fighter has seen the judges' scorecards in the UFC, and Aspinall hasn't ever. They each have one UFC loss – Pavlovich in his debut against Alistair Overeem, and Aspinall due to a freak knee injury against Curtis Blaydes.
Only one of their 14 combined UFC fights has left the first round: Aspinall's win over Andrei Arlovski at 1:09 in the second round. All things considered, not much "luck" at play on either record, barring Aspinall's knee injury.
This is a fairly binary fight with Aspinall having the grappling edge and Pavlovich having power/striking. I tend to lean toward the fighter who doesn't need takedowns in longer fights – but this one probably doesn't last all that long.
My early lean at these lines is Pavlovich is a bit undervalued as he hasn't been taken down since his debut and is theoretically more prepared for this fight. It's not a strong enough read that I'll bet it without digging deeper into the tape, though.
Verdict: Sergei Pavlovich Slightly Undervalued
Pat Sabatini (-120) vs. Diego Lopes (+100)
One fighter in this matchup has a 5-1 UFC record with the lone loss coming to an (at the time) ranked featherweight on a three-fight winning streak. That loss, while not "unlucky," was somewhat fluky: a 69-second TKO following a head kick right at the opening bell.
The other fighter is 1-1 in the UFC and got into the promotion as a last-second replacement following a loss on the Contender Series.
With that information, how heavy of a favorite would you make Fighter A? More than -120, I'm guessing, which is the current line on Pat Sabatini.
While that description doesn't paint the full picture – Diego Lopes' loss was an extremely close fight against Movsar Evloev – it's still a good way to view this one.
Sabatini is the more experienced fighter, and he excels in the area where Lopes is strong (submission grappling). I'd make Sabatini somewhere around -150 here, making the current line a strong value.
It's actually drifted toward Lopes since opening, so you might be able to get a better line later, but I'm fine with laying the slight juice on Monday.
Verdict: Pat Sabatini Undervalued
Jared Gordon (-185) vs. Mark Madsen (+154)
New York's own Jared Gordon is defending home turf at UFC 295 as he takes on Olympic wrestler Mark Madsen.
Gordon has been the definition of bad luck over the last year or so.
It started with his fight against Paddy Pimblett that he pretty clearly won – but was somehow scored for Pimblett.
His follow-up fight came against Bobby Green, who dropped him with an (accidental) headbutt that led to a knockout and a no-contest.
Then, he was supposed to fight Jim Miller as a late replacement before everybody remembered they'd just seen him get knocked out by a headbutt less than six weeks prior. The fight was ultimately scrapped.
Now he draws Madsen, who made his UFC debut in 2019 at age 35. He picked up a first-round finish over an outmatched opponent there before winning three decisions and dropping a submission loss to Grant Dawson.
Now 39, Madsen's athletic peak is firmly in the rear-view mirror. He also had some close calls with the judges during his string of three decisions, with two of them at least debatable as going to the wrong fighter.
Crucially, he was also a Greco-Roman wrestler, not freestyle. In Greco-Roman, the takedowns have to come from the clinch by rule – wrestlers aren't allowed to "shoot" at their opponent's legs. That doesn't translate as well to MMA, especially not in the larger cage the UFC uses for PPV events.
All things considered, I expect Gordon to both look like and close as a bigger favorite than he's currently lined.
Verdict: Jared Gordon Undervalued
Tabatha Ricci (+140) vs. Lupita Godinez (-166)
After suffering a TKO loss to Manon Fiorot – now 6-0 in the UFC – Tabatha Ricci has since rattled off four straight victories while declaring that the "Baby Shark era" is upon us.
That loss came on short notice to a top contender at flyweight while Ricci is a smallish strawweight.
"Loopy" Lupita Godinez is riding three straight victories of her own: two decisions and a submission. However, those wins were against fairly light competition with none of them having a winning UFC record.
Additionally, the split-decision win over Cynthia Calvillo was a bit of a gift with Calvillo out-striking Godinez in two rounds while landing a takedown in the other.
Ricci has just one win over a fighter with a winning UFC record, but it was a fairly dominant decision over Gillian Robertson, who's 9-6 in the UFC. None of her nine career wins has been via split decision.
Which isn't to say Ricci should be a big favorite here – just that it's hard to see why she's priced as the underdog. She was priced as high as +160 at open, so jump on this one before it moves.
Verdict: Tabatha Ricci Undervalued
Steve Erceg (-148) vs. Alessandro Costa (+124)
The UFC 295 opener kicks off with two fighters who have just three UFC bouts between them.
Steve Erceg made his debut at UFC 289, where he handed David Dvorak his third straight loss as a late replacement.
Alessandro Costa is 1-1 in the UFC, also having debuted as a late replacement in his fight against Amir Albazi. He suffered a third-round TKO loss to the top contender, who's 5-0 in the UFC.
Costa followed that up with a TKO victory of his own over Jimmy Flick.
Part of this line is based on the fact that Costa is taking this fight on somewhat short notice with Erceg originally booked against vet Matt Schnell. Still, that's not enough for me on Erceg, who wasn't especially impressive in beating one of the UFC's worst flyweights.
There's been movement both ways on this line since it opened this past weekend, depending on when and at what number the books started at.
The +135 at BetMGM is too long on Costa, though, and probably won't be there much longer.
If you have an account there, I'd bet it now. Otherwise, it could be worth waiting to see if other books come up to around that line.
Verdict: Alessandro Costa Undervalued
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