UFC 295 Parlays: A Crafty +600 Same Game Parlay for Co-Main Event (Saturday, November 11)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC heavyweight Tom Aspinall of England
For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 295 parlay bet or two to sweat.
Thankfully, Saturday's pay-per-view event in New York City provides plenty of betting opportunities, including parlays.
UFC 295 takes place tonight at Madison Square Garden. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and then ESPNews (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 295 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET ($79.99).
With 13 fights in all, we had ample UFC 295 parlay betting options to choose from this week. And I've put together a traditional parlay, as well as a same-game parlay (SGP), for Saturday's big UFC 295 pay-per-view card.
Let's dig into those parlays for the Prochazka vs. Pereira pay-per-view event.
UFC 295 Parlay
UFC 295 is undoubtedly one of the best cards of the year from top to bottom.
As always, I've searched for three fights in which I expect a level of violence that leads to the judges being rendered unnecessary.
The three spots below represent the best values among the card's fighters to win inside the distance.
Parlay Leg 1: Mateusz Rebecki by Finish (-175)
Roosevelt Roberts will step in on short notice to try to derail the freight train that is Mateusz Rebecki.
Rebecki isn’t going to wow you with his distance management or sharp stand-up attack, but he will maul you by moving forward constantly until he can get the fight where he wants it.
Rebecki has a 66% takedown accuracy rate in the UFC, and he averages 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. It is no surprise that this will be the game plan, and it is going to be the path of least resistance against a polished striker in Roberts.
Rebecki will get the fight to the mat early and often, and eventually, I expect him to find a finish either by unleashing ground and pound or by submission.
Parlay Leg 2: Benoit Saint-Denis by Finish (-150)
Benoit Saint-Denis is must-see TV at this point. He will push a pace that very few fighters will willingly sign up to square off against.
Saint-Denis is going to move forward, attack your body with kicks, and tire you out one way or another with immense pressure. His takedown accuracy is only 36% in the UFC, but his cardio and aggressiveness are such that he has still been able to land multiple takedowns in four of his five UFC fights.
Saint-Denis' UFC 295 opponent, Matt Frevola, does have solid movement skills, which he displayed in his win over Drew Dober. But even if the fight remains standing, he is not out of harm’s way; he's been knocked out twice during his UFC career.
Whether it is Frevola’s 42% takedown defense that leads to his demise or his suspect chin failing him, Saint-Denis is going to find his fifth straight finish in as many fights.
Parlay Leg 3: Mackenzie Dern by Finish (+100)
I do not see a path for Jessica Andrade winning this fight outside of an early knockout victory. It’s been six fights since Andrade’s fight-ending power has really come to fruition, and she has actually been the one getting finished in each of her last three bouts.
Dern is such a dangerous submission grappler that it may take only one defensive error by Andrade to lead to the eventual submission.
Dern has greatly improved her standup, and she should be able to hold her own for as long as the fight plays out while standing. However, I do not expect Dern to take that risk as she will force the clinch and test Andrade’s defensive grappling and cardio.
The trajectory of these women's careers is going in opposite directions, so I will gladly side with the ascending fighter to get the stoppage against Andrade’s waning durability.
UFC 295 All-Violence Parlay Odds: +423 at DraftKings
UFC 295 Same Game Parlay
Same-game parlays can be a great way to correlate fight results to extract the most value from a specific bout.
DraftKings is one of the few sportsbooks that currently offer this type of wager. Thus, I’ve scoured DraftKings' offerings to find the best way to attack one of these fights on Saturday night. Let’s dive into the UFC 295 co-main event for the interim heavyweight championship.
Tom Aspinall is currently listed at +350 to win by submission, but I’ve found a way to nearly double the payout on this specific prop.
Aspinall has advantages in this heavyweight matchup that cannot be ignored. And when you are taking on somebody with the power of Sergei Pavlovich, it is all but guaranteed Aspinall’s camp will implore him to use all of the tools at his disposal.
Aspinall has a speed advantage, but more importantly, he also has a sizable athleticism and grappling edge. His movement skills and footwork, especially early on in the fight, will be critical as he cannot allow Pavlovich to cut off the cage.
I will be surprised if there is not a feeling-out process at distance as both fighters look for openings. Thus, I have added Over 3.5 minutes to the parlay.
Aspinall will stay out of harm's way until Pavlovich overcommits on an attack. I expect him eventually to land a takedown to get the fight to the mat. Aspinall landing a takedown does not increase this payout, but it is the path in which I expect him to tax Pavlovich’s cardio and drain his power.
If this is successful, Aspinall has a massive edge in the submission grappling department, and thus, he should be hunting for submissions whenever any opportunity presents itself. If he can tire out Pavlovich, I highly doubt we will see the start of Round 4.
My UFC 295 same-game parlay includes:
- Tom Aspinall – moneyline (3-way)
- Over 3.5 – total minutes
- Under 14.5 – total minutes
- Submission – exact method of victory
UFC 295 SGP with Tom Aspinall: +600 at DraftKings
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