UFC 296 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington: Easy Pick for PPV Main Event (Saturday, December 16)

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Odds

The UFC wraps up its 2023 events schedule with a welterweight title fight between reigning champion Leon Edwards and multiple-time challenger Colby Covington in Saturday night's UFC 296 main event on pay-per-view.

This will be the first title defense for Edwards against anyone other than Kamaru Usman, the man he took the belt from.

For Covington, it's likely his last shot at the title after two previous bids against then-champ Usman were unsuccessful.

As insufferable as his trash-talking may be, "Chaos" is still a legitimate threat to Edwards inside the cage. Can he end 2023 with gold around his waist? We'll find out this weekend.

Let's break it down with the Edwards vs. Covington odds, prediction and betting pick for Saturday, Dec. 16.

Tale of the Tape

Covington has long been a favorite of company president Dana White and the UFC.

Why? It's primarily due to his over-the-top persona and ability to hype (and thus, sell) fights.

That favoritism of White has seen Covington granted some less-than-deserved title fights in his tenure at the top of the division, and this weekend is arguably no different.

It's been more than five years since Covington beat anybody coming off a win, as I noted this week in my UFC 296 Luck Ratings. He's been inactive since a March 2022 win over Jorge Masvidal, who has since retired from the sport.

In his defense, Covington has just one non-Usman loss in his professional career, and he fought Usman far closer than any other title challengers until Edwards' victories over him.

A former JUCO national champion in wrestling and Division I All-American, Covington's best attribute is his relentless pace. While he hasn't finished a fight via submission since 2016, he's also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu with underrated submission skills.

Covington looks to overwhelm opponents with extreme output in both striking and grappling, throwing flurries of punches from a southpaw stance to set up his wrestling. While he lacks power with his strikes, his extreme volume tends to play well to the judges.

Covington's also extremely durable, with his only knockout loss coming somewhat-controversially to Usman in their first meeting. He's never been knocked down by any other fighter.

Of course, Covington's now on the wrong side of 35 years old, hasn't fought in 21 months, and he left his former camp due to high-profile fallingouts with Masvidal and Dustin Poirier. None of those is a great sign.

On the other hand, Edwards is at the top of his game. After winning the welterweight title with a Hail Mary head-kick KO of Usman in the fifth round, he went on to dominate the all-time great in the rematch.

A tall, rangy striker, Edwards has made huge improvements to his overall game to become the first fighter to take down Usman in the UFC.

His defensive grappling has also been a major focus. While Edwards' 69% takedown defense is good but not great, he rarely stays down for long. That will be a key point against Covington as judges are unlikely to give the round to Covington based on takedowns alone.

Edwards should have a big edge on Covington in the striking department, thanks largely to his power. His knockdown rate is roughly five times that of Covington's, and he's the far more precise striker.

The larger pay-per-view cage also benefits Edwards, who can use his kicks and footwork to stay out of wrestling range.

Edwards vs. Covington Pick

This strikes me as a fight made more because of Covington's ability to sell it than his ability to win it. At his best, he'd have a reasonable shot against Edwards.

Covington should have the edge in cardio, and he could – in theory – push a high enough pace to take over in the later rounds.

Unfortunately, Covington's best days seem to be behind him. Switching from a well-regarded camp where he's pushed on a daily basis to a gym built around him isn't a great sign, nor is the extended layoff from a fighter his age.

Edwards has big edges in size, power and overall athleticism, which should be evident while on the feet. Given the modern judging criteria that reward damage, Edwards can win rounds with one or two big shots whereas Covington needs to control the entirety of a round to have much of a chance.

Edwards' recent performance against Usman sold me on the Brit's grappling ability since Usman is every bit the wrestling threat of Covington. Edwards should be able to keep this on the feet long enough to work his superior striking game.

Bets have pushed the line on Edwards down to from the odds available early in the week, but I'm more than happy laying -155 on the current moneyline as of this writing on Thursday.

If you want to get greedy, FanDuel has Edwards to win in Rounds 4, 5, or by decision at +115, which is also a viable option. I'd pivot to that if his moneyline gets past -170 or so before fight time.

The Pick: Leon Edwards (-155 at DraftKings)