UFC 316 Odds, Predictions: Expert Picks, Previews for All 13 Fights

MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski

Projection: MarQuel Mederos (55.8%)

MarQuel Mederos was supposed to compete on last week's UFC APEX card against Bolaki Oki but pulled out on fight week due to a "severe illness" that left him "unable to train, fight, or eat." Mederos was the final fighter to weigh in on Friday; a concerning sign considering the cross-country flight, additional weight cut, and recovery from his illness over the past week.

He'll face UFC newcomer Mark Choinski, an undefeated 8-0 prospect and former three-time Division III All-American wrestler. Choinski is aggressive on the feet and can effectively check leg kicks, but he doesn't move his head well. To upset Mederos, he'll need to wrestle and grapple successfully.

Choinski was booked for a regional fight next week in Anthony Pettis FC – where he's the Lightweight champion – so he was in camp preparing for a fight anyway. He also trains at Roufusport MMA in Wisconsin alongside the Pettis brothers, Christian Rodriguez, Raufeon Stots, Emmanuel Sanchez, and other high-caliber MMA fighters. While he's faced relatively low-level competition, Choniski does seem like a decent prospect, but he's already 29 years old and could struggle if he can't secure takedowns against Mederos.

Mederos is a better boxer than Choinski, but may struggle to land leg kicks against a more skilled wrestler who is adept at both catching and checking them. Additionally, Mederos spent half of his last fight getting outwrestled and controlled by Austin Hubbard, ultimately winning a narrow but deserved split decision. I suspect that he's coming into this fight less than 100%, given the recent illness, travel, and weight-cutting complications; and if Choinski can push an early grappling pace, it could drain his gas tank.

I projected Choinski's moneyline around +126, and would bet him down to +135. I also show value on the fight to go to decision (projected -179, listed -155) and correlated value on Choinski to win by decision (projected +344, listed +440).

Bets

• Mark Choniski (+155, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +135)

Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz

Projection: Quillan Salkilld (82.3%)

Quillian Salkilld is much bigger than Yanal Ashmouz (3" taller, 6" reach advantage) at distance and should be able to mix in takedowns whenever he wants to in this fight, driving his substantial favoritism.

Ashmouz is an aggressive striker with immense power, but leaves himself open to reactive takedowns, so I'd expect Salkilld to spend a substantial amount of time in this fight in top position or threatening to win by submission.

I projected the Aussie as a -466 favorite, and don't show value on either side of the moneyline.

I do project a slight edge on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -104, listed +108) and on Salkilld to win inside the distance (projected +135, listed +165). You can bet the former to +105, and the latter to +150.

However, both fighters are in their physical prime, and neither has shown significant durability or cardio concerns. As a result, I do personally think that Salkilld may win a boring, control-based decision here, so I would either play those violence props small or save them for round-robin tickets.

Bets

• Quillan Salkilld wins Inside the Distance (0.15u, +180) at ESPNBet (bet to +150)

Jeka Saragih vs. Yoo Joo-sang

Projection: Yoo Joo-sang (80.6%)

Jeka Saragih has confounded the betting markets during his UFC tenure, losing to Anshul Jubli in his debut as a -140 favorite, before upsetting Lucas Alexander as a +430 underdog, and then losing to Westin Wilson as a -350 favorite.

He enters Saturday's bout against "Zombie Jr." Joosang Yoo as a significant underdog (as high as +425 as of writing). He will look to pull a significant upset against a UFC debutant.

Yoo is the bigger man (2" reach advantage) and the more technical fighter, but he does have a tendency to get after opponents and brawl, and if Saragih can lure him into a swinging match, he has the power to close the show.

I expect Yoo to struggle against more decorated grapplers as he ascends the Featherweight ladder. Still, Saragih seems unlikely to expose that part of his skillset, and Yoo seems like the far more durable fighter, with a deeper gas tank.

I show value on Yoo to win by KO/TKO (projected +164, listed +190) and my colleague, Billy Ward, likes him to win in Rounds 1 or 2 (-125), as opposed to his odds to win in Round 1 (+200) or the Under 1.5 Rounds (+102).

I do think his inside the distance odds (projected -129, listed -165) are a bit steep; however, an SGP (same-game Parlay) with Yoo and the Under 2.5 Rounds is only -130, compared to his odds to win in Rounds 1-2 at -125; both at DraftKings.

I'll save Yoo by KO for round-robin tickets.

Bets

• SGP: Joo-sang Yoo and Under 2.5 Rounds (-130, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to -135)

Ariane Da Silva vs. Wang Cong

Projection: Cong Wang (83.4%)

Ariana da Silva (nee Lipski) missed weight by six pounds on Friday and was fined 30% of her purse.

While this fight sets up as a potentially violent matchup between two dangerous strikers, we are getting a reasonable price on the fight to go the distance, compared to the divisional average of 68% in three-round fights.

I projected this bout to reach a decision 56% of the time (-130 implied odds) and would bet the distance prop up to -120.

Da Silva. She has good offensive submission skills, but lacks excellent wrestling skills and may struggle with the physicality of Cong. Moreover, while she was knocked out on her feet by Priscila Cachoeira, Da Silva has struggled more with her bottom game, and Cong seems unlikely to grapple proactively in this fight; even if she does, I don't think she has the submission skills to finish a superior grappler on the mat.

I'm certainly less confident in the read following Da Silva's dramatic weight miss, however, since she has shown cardio concerns in past fights. As a result, I'd keep any staking here small.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Dccision (+100, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to -120)

Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson

Projection: Khaos Williams (62.8%)

Andreas Gustafsson was supposed to debut on last week's APEX card, but he had separate bouts against Jeremiah Wells and Trevin Giles canceled.

As a result, Gustafsson had to fly across the country and cut weight for the second time in a week, and will now take on a larger and more powerful striker in Khaos Williams, compared to his recently cancelled bookings.

Fighting in the smaller APEX cage relps Gustafsson's clinch-heavy, cage-push style, but fighting in the larger octagon, at a 4" reach disadvantage, against a fighter with massive power for the division, is a significant downgrade for his chances.

Williams hasn't faced many grappling threats at the UFC level, and did prove the ability to scramble back to his feet and get his back off the cage in bouts against Michel Pereira and Randy Brown, but was recently taken down four times on five attempts before losing via D'Arce against Gabriel Bonfim.

Khaos is the more technical striker, but both men are hittable (Williams has a 43% striking defense). Khaos needs to stay on his bike and avoid getting cornered against the fence, where Gustafssson does his best work.

Ultimately, I don't project value on either side of the moneyline or the total. I'd be inclined to bet Gustafsson in the smaller confines of the APEX, but I'll pass on his debut in the 30-foot cage.

Bets

• Pass

Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Projection: Serghei Spivac (59.9%)

I projected Serghei Spivac to win this matchup nearly 60% of the time and am comfortable laying his moneyline at that price point, around -150.

However, I'd prefer to bet Spivac to win either by submission (projected +195, listed +360) or inside the distance (projected +111, listed +180), given the potential grappling mismatch between these Heavyweights.

Spivac has faced a significantly higher level of competition within the division, including Jailton Almeida, Marcin Tybura, Ciryl Gane, Derrick Lewis, Tom Aspinall, and Tai Tuivasa. At the same time, Cortes-Acosta has run up a 7-1 record against mostly unranked fighters.

Aside from his win 45-year-old former champion Andrei Arlovski – whom "Salsa Boy" potentially robbed in a decision (out-struck 58-48); the third of four consecutive losses for Arlovski – actual Heavyweights opponents that Waldo have faced in the UFC have a combined record of 8-25; and he also defeated former Light Heavyweight Ryan Spann.

Additionally, Waldo has only faced one actual grappling test, which he failed against Marcos Rogerio de Lima (permitted three of seven takedowns, 5:01 control time). He's also more of a volume point fighter than a power puncher.

Spivac has struggled against more physical opponents, but I'd expect him to bully Cortes-Acosta, control his wrists, and take him for a ride (66% takedown accuracy; attempts 4.9 per five minutes at distance, 70% control rate).

While Waldo showed decent offensive grappling in his win over Taekwondo medalist Robelis Despaigne, I'm sure that, at age 33, three years Spivac's senior, his defensive grappling remains a liability.

Lastly, I show value on this fight to end inside the distance (projected -245, listed -196) but I do view Spivac as the likelier finisher threat of the pair, and prefer his props at plus money rather than laying juice.

Bets

• Serghei Spivac wins Inside the Distance (+185, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to +125)
• Serghei Spivac wins by Submission (+350, 0.1u) at BetRivers (bet to +225)

Azamat Murzankanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Projection: Azamat Murzakanov (83.6%)

Azamat "The Professional" Murzakanov will look to extend his unbeaten run on Saturday against Brendson Ribeiro, who I would argue is a significant step down in competition relative to his recent opponents, Dustin Jacoby and Alonzo Menifield.

Murakanov is an overly patient but vicious and dynamic counter striker, who can get lulled into boring fights and drop minutes on the scorecards. Still, he has finished 11 of his 14 career wins, including five of six under the promotional banner.

Muzakanov doesn't look particularly athletic (being kind) and at 5"10" he is small for the Light Heavyweight division (Ribeiro is 5" tall with a 10" reach advantage). Still, he is a very educated striker and well-rounded fighter, and he remains an intriguing contender in the division despite his advanced age (36).

Ribeiro seems like a potential highlight reel win in the making; however, he resembles a Bond villain, but has been knocked out four times in the first round and submitted in the second round twice, in just 24 career fights.

Unfortunately, the lines on the fight to end inside the distance (-700), Murzakanov to win inside the distance (-340), or his odds to win in Round 1 (+125) are not playable. And while the Under 1.5 Rounds (-159) is tempting, Murzkanov is very patient and happy to wait for the right opportunity.

I'd imagine he will be cautious early, given the 10-inch reach discrepancy. And I could even see Murzkanov mixing in some grappling.

Apart from Murzakanov winning by submission (projected +1028, listed +1600), I'm not interested in betting on this matchup. And while he has completed two takedowns in the UFC, he hasn't attempted a submission. His lone win via submission came by way of a neck crank, which isn't very repeatable. Murzkanov can wrestle, but I'm uncertain that he has a deeper jiu-jitsu game to go along with it.

Bets

• Pass

Bruno Silva vs. Joshua Van

Projection: Joshua Van (82.1%)

Bruno Silva enters his matchup with Joshua Van as a more significant underdog than he was in his last fight against Manel Kape (closed +350), who might be the best Flyweight in the world.

As a result, I certainly think he's worth considering – and betting small – at odds of +500 or higher (projected +458) in Saturday's featured prelim.

Josh Van fights at a ridiculous pace, landing 8.1 significant strikes per minute. Still, he has proven hittable and was knocked out by Charles Johnson, who has below-average power for the division.

Silva – an extremely well-rounded fighter and formerly the chief training partner for both Henry Cejudo and Patricio Freire – has been underrated since his 0-3 start in the UFC, finishing four straight opponents before his loss to Kape.

Despite getting outclassed in that fight, he pressed forward and ultimately forced a finish. Still, it was a valiant effort, and he's now taking a significant step down in competition against Van.

Still, Van is the much younger man (an 11-year age gap), and he typically starts slowly and builds momentum the longer his fights last. As a result, you can live bet Van after Round 1, if his price improves.

Still, from a pre-fight perspective, it's Silva or pass – and I think his submission prop (projected +1836, listed +2000) is live against an opponent who has shown a grappling deficiency.

Bets

• Wait for +500 on Bruno Silva
• Joshua Van Live after Round 1

Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland

Projection: Kevin Holland (75.9%)

Vicente Luque won his last fight against Themba as a +145 underdog; a fight that he would have been -400 (maybe even -900) in just a couple of years ago.

Still, Luque has suffered from a brain bleed in the past and looked like a slower, less durable version of himself following his brutal knockout loss against Geoff Neal.

He entered the Gorimbo fight as an underdog because, just before that, he turtled awkwardly and accepted a TKO finish on his back against Joaquin Buckley, seemingly out of nowhere.

Luque's durability remains a significant concern, given his extensive experience in numerous wars throughout his career.

And I expect him to struggle with the size and physicality of Kevin Holland – a very different fighter at Welterweight than he is at Middleweight. Holland carries significantly more power and offers better takedown defense at 170 pounds, and he'll make the most out of his length (4" taller, 6" reach advantage) at striking distance.

While Luque could have a path via grappling, as my colleague Billy Ward pointed out, all of his submission wins have come when opponents have tried to ake him down – via anaconda or D'arce – and Holland will look to keep this fight standing – where he's the far mroe efficient striker (+1.5 to +0.2 strike differential per minute).

I would consider Holland as a parlay piece up to -300 (projected -315), but I prefer his odds to win by KO/TKO (projected +127, listed +155) or even by Round 1 KO/TKO (+480) if Luque is entirely shot.

Bets

• Kevin Holland wins by KO/TKO (+150, 0.25u) at BallyBet (bet to +135)

Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix

Projection: Patchy Mix (55%)

Former Bellator Bantamweight champion Patchy Mix will make his UFC debut on Saturday. With a 20-1 career record, he could be in line for a quick title shot in arguably the sport's deepest division.

Mix is bigger than Mario Bautista (2" taller, 1" reach advantage) and the better grappler in the matchup. Still, Bautista is the better striker and offers superior cardio in the second and third rounds.

Mix has finished 15 of his 20 career wins (13 by submission) but recently earned a controversial split decision over Magomed Magomedov for the Bellator title; more than 80% of fans thought Magomedov won the first four rounds.

Moreover, my concern with Mix has always been his gas tank. He's a powerful athlete, but needs a submission or extended control time to impose his style effectively and justify his pricetag.

Bautista is an excellent scrambler, with a seemingly bottomless gas tank. I'd expect him to get taken down early, but to work his way back into the fight and take over with output down the stretch.

The longer that Bautista can stay upright, the better his chances of winning this matchup.

I projected his pre-fight moneyline at +122; bet that down to +135, and consider adding more live after Round 1.

Additionally, I project value on Bautista to win by decision (projected +232, listed +260), which will be on my round robin tickets.

Bets

• Mario Bautista (+160, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +135)
• Mario Bautista Live after Round 1

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

Projection: Joe Pyfer (79.6%)

This bout was rescheduled after Pyfer pulled out with an illness before their UFC Fight Night bout in Mexico City. Pyfer, who is a powerful, fast starter – and the bigger man (5" taller, 4" reach advantage) figured to struggle with cardio while fighting at elevation in Mexico City. Still, they should look more formidable at sea level, in his home state of New Jersey.

While Pyfer carries significant power for the Middleweight division, Gastelum is one of the more durable fighters in the history of the sport, and he's shown excellent recoverability in the fights where he has been knocked down (against Israel Adesanya and Jared Cannonier).

I think Pyfer is likelier to submit Gastelum than knock him out; Pyfer has shown a sneaky offensive grappling game, submitting Abdul Razak Alhassan via arm triangle (Gastelum lost by the same method against Chris Weidman); and Gastelum tends to lose focus on the ground; his heel hook loss against Jack Hermansson was due to poor Fight IQ.

Still, while Pyfer should be dangerous early, Gastelum should be able to work his way back into the fight as Pyfer's explosiveness wanes in the second and third rounds, and Kelvin is likely a sharp live bet after five minutes.

I do project an edge on this fight to reach a decision, setting the line at 57% (-130 implied) compared to a division average of 45% (+122 implied). Still, Gastelum isn't a potent finisher (9 of his 14 UFC wins have come via decision), and both men have exceptional durability.

Bet the GTD prop at +105 to -120 – and wait for a live entry on Gastelum.

I also show correlated value on either fighter to win by decision, setting Gastelum at +527 and Pyfer at +147 compared to listed odds of +650 and +170, respectively.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (+104, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -120)
• Kelvin Gastelum Live after Round 1

Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison

Projection: Kayla Harrison (84.8%)

For additional information on Saturday's co-main event and women's Bantamweight title bout, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

Peña will enter this fight at the second-highest underdog odds for a sitting champion in UFC history; Nicco Montano lost as a +925 underdog against Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 228. Harrison – a two-time Olympic gold medalist in Judo – is the much better athlete, and should have a significant grappling edge against Peña, who has denied just 23% of takedown attempts in her UFC career (prevented just two of eight takedown attempts and ceded 11:50 of control time in her rematch loss against Amanda Nunes.).

Still, Harrison – a former 155er in PFL who would compete at Featherweight if the UFC still had a 145-pound division- cuts a ton of weight to make 135; and this will be her first potential five-round test at Bantamweight. She slowed a bit in the third round of her fight against Ketlen Vieira. If she cannot finish Peña, who is both highly durable and has excellent cardio, Harrison could run into trouble in the championship rounds.

I project an edge on the fight to go to decision (projected 44%, +130) compared to the divisional average of 61% in three-round fights, and nearly 80% in five-round fights. And I show correlated value on either fighter to win by decision, setting Harrison at +188 and Peña at +1033, compared to listed odds as high as +240 and +1400, respectively.

Given the price discrepancy, I'd rather play the Over 3.5 Rounds (+110) or bet the goes to decision prop (down to +140) rather than betting Harrison by decision; but I would search for a live bet on Peña, either way, after Round 3.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (+192, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to +150)
• Julianna Peña Live after Round 3

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley

Projection: Merab Dvalishili (64%)

For additional information on Saturday's main event and Welterweight title bout, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out my full fight preview.

In short, the perception in the betting market has essentially flipped between these fighters relative to the first matchup; public predictions were taking O'Malley to win the first fight between 65-70% of the time, despite odds near 50% implied, but the public is only picking him 25% of the time in this rematch, despite odds near 31%.

I projected Dvalishvili as a slight favorite (52.1%) in the first fight, and made him 64% (-178 implied) in the rematch.

And after betting Merab in the first fight, I show an actionable edge on O'Malley's moneyline in the rematch, at +195 (33.9% implied) or better, at just over a two percent edge compared to my projection (36%).

However, given the cardio dynamic between these fighters, you can look for a live entry on Dvalishvili at any price point better than his pre-fight moneyline.

Bets

• Sean O'Malley (+250, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to +195)
• Merab Dvalishvili Live after Round 1

Sean Zerillo's UFC 316 Picks & Predictions

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Moneyline Bets

• Mark Choniski (+155, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +135)
• Mario Bautista (+160, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +135)
• Sean O'Malley (+250, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to +195)

Prop Bets and Totals

• Quillan Salkilld wins Inside the Distance (0.15u, +180) at ESPNBet (bet to +150)
• Da Silva/Cong, Fight Goes to Decision (+100, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to -120)
• Serghei Spivac wins Inside the Distance (+185, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to +125)
• Serghei Spivac wins by Submission (+350, 0.1u) at BetRivers (bet to +225)
• Kevin Holland wins by KO/TKO (+150, 0.25u) at BallyBet (bet to +135)
• Pyfer/Gastelum, Fight Goes to Decision (+104, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -120)
• Peña/Harrison, Fight Goes to Decision (+192, 0.25u) at FanDuel(bet to +150)

Parlays

• SGP: Joo-sang Yoo and Under 2.5 Rounds (-130, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to -135)

Live Bets

• Joshua Van Live after Round 1
• Mario Bautista Live after Round 1
• Kelvin Gastelum Live after Round 1
• Julianna Peña Live after Round 3
• Merab Dvalishvili Live after Round 1