Read our UFC 327 predictions for this live event on Saturday from the Kaseya Center in Miami. As is the new normal, the prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with a 9:00 p.m. main card also airing on CBS.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
The first fight on Saturday's card features a significant age gap, as 23-year-old Argentine Francisco Prado meets 35-year-old American Charles Radtke.
When there is at least a decade between MMA opponents, the younger fighter has won 71% of the time at average odds of -131 (56.8% implied), nearly 15% above expectation.
Prado is well-trained, working at American Top Team in South Florida, and given his age, athleticism and training situation, should continue to improve as an MMA fighter, despite a 1-4 record in the promotion. He has arguably faced the tougher UFC competition than Radtke, too.
Chuck Buffalo is the more well-rounded fighter and has a 3" reach advantage, but Prado can close the distance as the more durable man; he hits just as hard (if not harder), and has improved his grappling to the point where he should be able to keep the fight standing and engage in a 50/50 striking battle.
Prado can get countered as he tries to close the distance, but if he forces a pocket brawl, you're betting a coin flip at a near 40% expectation.
Bet Prado's moneyline to +120 (projected +111), and consider his odds to win by decision (projected +446, listed +900 at DraftKings) despite projecting him as the likelier of the pair to finish the fight.
For however long it lasts, the UFC 327 main card fight between Johnny Walker and Dominick Reyes should be fun.
The two are both what we describe as "glass cannons," or fighters with tremendous power but limited durability. They have 27 combined fights in the UFC, and 20 of those have ended with somebody unconscious. They both have identical 6-4 UFC records in fights that end via KO, with their records inflated by 3-0 starts that have since cooled off.
They're also both in their mid-30s, with Reyes being 36 while Walker is 34. Although that's not especially old for light heavyweight, it's around the point in the age curve where things like chin strength and defensive reflexes begin to fall off — but power remains intact.
None of this is news to the betting market, which has this fight around -450 to end by knockout. While I'm a bit surprised that Walker is a clear underdog (+125 or so) on the moneyline, I would project that as just a slight edge.
What I'm more surprised about is the discrepancy between both fighters' knockout lines — both compared to each other and as a percentage of their implied win probability.
Reyes is -105 to win by knockout at DraftKings, which represents more than 85% of his win condition. On the other hand, Walker is +215 to win by knockout, which accounts for "just" 70% or so of his +124 moneyline. Reyes has been knocked out in a larger proportion of his losses, so this feels off to me.
I used DraftKings for comparison purposes, but you can actually get Walker's knockout prop as high as +240 on FanDuel. That's way too long for his likeliest win condition, and I'd play it down to +200.
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