UFC Atlantic City Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Luque vs Buckley, Njokuani vs McKee & More (Saturday, March 30)

Check out the latest UFC odds with our best bets for the Saturday event in Atlantic City, which features Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot and Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley, among other bouts.

UFC Atlantic City takes place at Boardwalk Hall in New Jersey. The preliminary card airs on ESPN2 at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) with the main card kicking off on ESPN at 10 p.m. ET. The entire fight card is also available on ESPN+.

The latest UFC odds show a number of tightly contested bouts among the 13-fight lineup. Although our UFC best bets don't include picks for the main event, you can check out Sean Zerillo's betting angles in our Blanchfield vs. Fiorot breakdown. However, our UFC best bets for tonight do include some other featured bouts.

So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and six picks on Saturday’s ESPN card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below.

UFC odds for matchups as of Saturday evening and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC Atlantic City with our FanDuel promo code. 

(Note: UFC officials canceled the Viktoriia Dudakova vs. Melissa Gatto prelim fight just prior to walkouts due to a reported medical issue for Dudakova.)

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

UFC Odds & Predictions for Atlantic City

Tony Sartori: Andre Petroski vs. Jacob Malkoun

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:20 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC prelims features a bout between unranked middleweights with Andre Petroski (+200) vs. Jacob Malkoun (-245). These are two wrestlers, and whenever you get a matchup between two large wrestlers, the odds of the fight going to decision increase.

Oddsmakers agree for this bout as the Fight Goes to Decision prop is currently listed as wide as -165. So, assuming this fight goes to a decision, who has the edge?

I would say Malkoun, and so do oddsmakers; he is currently laying north of two dollars on the moneyline.

Malkoun is a takedown machine, landing an average of 7.2 per 15 minutes since joining the UFC. Once he garners control on the mat, he racks up control time in an effort to win on the judges' scorecards. This game plan is how he won all three of his bouts in the UFC over the likes of Abdul Razak Alhassan, AJ Dobson and Nick Maximov.

I believe this game plan will work once again against Petroski. First, Malkoun is stockier/denser, which is almost always an advantage in a wrestling-heavy fight as he can use that size and power to keep Petroski down.

Additionally, in a close fight in which not much is happening on the mat, judges will likely look to takedowns to separate the fighters in each round. And that edge is likely going to go to Malkoun every time, considering he is way more tenacious and active with his takedown attempts than Petroski.

The way I think Petroski could win this fight if he can't keep up with the constant takedown pressure is by submission during an exchange on the mat. However, Malkoun has never tapped in 10 professional and two amateur fights. Therefore, I think Malkoun will take care of business as a heavy favorite, utilizing his typical game plan.

The Pick: Jacob Malkoun by decision (+120 at BetRivers)

Billy Ward: Ibo Aslan vs. Anton Turkalj

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:20 p.m. ET

Ibo Aslan is a 12-1 UFC debutant who’s picked up knockouts in all 12 of his wins. While they mostly were early in fights, at least one came in the third round – which is a good sign for his cardio.

Aslan (-124) fighting Anton Turkalj (+106) on Saturday. "The Pleasure Man" is 0-3 in his UFC career with two first-round stoppages and a unanimous decision in which he failed to win a single round. Nothing about any of his performances so far gives any indication that he’s a UFC-level competitor.

So why is this line so close? That’s because the lone loss on Aslan’s pro record was against … The Pleasure Man. In 2020, they squared off under the Brave FC banner with Turkalj winning by second-round rear-naked choke.

Typically prior winners have an edge in rematches (even relative to the market), but I’m not seeing it this time. Aslan was winning most of the first matchup before taking an ill-advised shot, and he seems to have gotten much better since then. There’s sufficient evidence from Turkalj that his earlier victory was something of a fluke at this point.

In fact, Turkalj would probably already be off the UFC roster if not for this rematch popping up considering he’s lost three straight. Another loss to Aslan will likely send him packing. While I’ll miss the opportunity to write “The Pleasure Man,” I’ll dry my tears with a winning ticket on Aslan.

The Pick: Ibo Aslan (-125 at DraftKings)

Sean Zerillo: Rhys McKee vs. Chidi Njokuani

Senior Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET

Chidi Njokuani surprisingly made weight on Friday. The 35-year-old kickboxer hasn't fought at welterweight since 2016 and subsequently missed weight multiple times – and permanently damaged his vocal cords in the process – before going up to middleweight.

Njokuani (-148) should be bigger and stronger than Rhys McKee (+126), and he's the more technical and dangerous kickboxer. Still, he won't have as much size advantage (one-inch taller, two-inch reach advantage) against McKee – who is large for the division – as he would against an average-sized welterweight.

McKee is a durable striker and typically loses when opponents force him to grapple. Njokuani will keep this fight standing, but McKee should offer vastly superior cardio; Chidi showed declining stamina throughout his middleweight run. If anything, McKee should attempt to grapple in Round 1.

Njokuani will be dangerous early in the fight, and McKee is very hittable (44% striking defense). As a result, even though I see value in McKee pre-fight (projected fair odds -108), you may find a better live price after he absorbs damage but potentially survives a tough opening frame.

I'd still take McKee's moneyline pre-fight at plus money, in addition to his props to win in Rounds 2 (+750) or Rounds 3 (+1000); "Skeletor" has shown a tendency for attritional finishes in Cage Warriors and should have an opportunity to outlast Njokuani if he survives the early exchanges.

The Picks: Rhys McKee (+124 at DraftKings) | McKee in Round 2 (+750 at FanDuel) | McKee in Round 3 (+1200 at FanDuel)

Dann Stupp: Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET

There comes a point in MMA in which the younger generation eventually catches and then quickly surpasses the older vets.

Saturday's UFC Atlantic City co-main event between welterweights Vicente Luque (-116) and Joaquin Buckley (-102) seems like just such a crossroads fight.

However, as money has steadily trickled on the opening underdog and the younger Buckley, I think we've seen too much disrespect for Luque in the betting markets. As a result, now's the time to pounce.

A recent two-fight skid, a brain issue, and the wear and tear of a 15-year pro career surely give bettors rightful reason to pause on 32-year-old Luque. However, as much as 29-year-old, 10-year-pro Buckley has improved in the past few years, he's still prone to mistakes.

Buckley's power, takedowns and overall athleticism make him a pretty complete fighter. But he's not above the occasional mental lapse, and Luque is the type of crafty vet who can find those openings during the fight – and especially in scrambles and on the mat. Would you really be surprised to see Luque snatch a lightning-quick choke out of his back pocket at some point during this fight?

However, as Dan Tom mentioned in his Luque vs. Buckley preview, rather than a submission-dominant game plan, don't be surprised if Luque decides to trade firepower – and perhaps even get the better of it, as he has against many other southpaws.

Additionally, Luque has the type of durability and late-fight output (with eight fight-night bonuses) to sway judges and secure rounds on the scorecards if this one drags out. At pick'em odds, I'm willing to take one more ride with the vet.

The Pick: Vicente Luque (-112 at DraftKings)