UFC Predictions: 9 Juicy Prop Picks for Atlantic City (Saturday, March 30)
Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty. Pictured: UFC middleweight Chris Weidman
Check out our UFC predictions with our top prop bets for UFC Atlantic City on Saturday, March 30.
UFC Atlantic City takes place tonight at Boardwalk Hall in New Jersey. The preliminary card airs on ESPN2 at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT), and the main card airs on ESPN beginning at 10 p.m. ET. The entire UFC Atlantic City event is also available on ESPN+.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of UFC predictions from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +15.3 units and a +4.3% ROI per bet to date.
With 13 fights in all, the Squad had lots to choose from on tonight's fight card. Check out all of their UFC predictions and top props below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Predictions & Prop Picks for Atlantic City
Liam Heslin: Caolon Loughran by Submission (+750) | Fight Ends by Submission (+600)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Let's get right to the math and explain why these numbers don't add up to me.
Caolon Loughran is 2-0 career to the submission prop as a professional (both rear-naked chokes) accounting for 25% of his eight professional victories.
His UFC Atlantic City opponent in the night's curtain-jerker, Angel Pacheco, is 3-0 to the submission prop in his pro tenure, accounting for 43% of his professional victories.
Both of these guys have shown themselves to be willing to pursue submission finishes. Pacheco is cutting down to the bantamweight class, and it could have adverse effects on his cardio and durability. We have also seen Pacheco secure opportunistic submissions of his own after hurting his opponents standing.
Three-round UFC bantamweight fights have ended via submission 18.9% (+429 expected odds) of the time since 2015 and 18.3% (+446 expected odds) of the time since 2022. To get either fighter to win via submission at +600 (14.3% implied odds) feels like a great price in this fight when sharp sportsbooks such as Circa are hanging +400 on Loughran to win by submission as an individual proposition.
Further market support was demonstrated when FanDuel opened a +750 (11.8%) number on a Loughran submission and +500 (16.7%) on the fight prop of the bout ending via submission before getting cracked to +500 (16.7%) and +390 (20.4%), respectively.
Loughran took on a much more tough and seasoned opponent in his UFC debut, and I think his grappling game translates in his sophomore appearance.
The Picks: Caolon Loughran by Submission (+750 at BetRivers) | Loughran vs. Pacheco Ends by Submission (+600 at BetMGM)
Billy Ward: Herbert Burns in Round 1 (+850)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
I don’t think Herbert Burns is going to win his fight against Julio Arce on Saturday. But if he does, it will almost certainly be in the first round.
Burns, the younger brother of UFC welterweight Gilbert Burns, has some of the worst cardio I’ve ever seen from a non-heavyweight. His last loss came in the second round via “exhaustion from damage” against Bill Algeo, a method of victory I can’t recall ever seeing before.
For right around five minutes, though? He’s a man on a mission. Like his brother, he’s a high-level BJJ black belt with an extensive resume in elite submission grappling competition. Not coincidentally, those matches happen to be just one round.
As an MMA fighter, seven of his 11 pro wins have been in the first frame, including all three on UFC-affiliated events. He falls off a cliff after that, though, with both UFC losses coming in Round 2. He had some success in the early minutes of those fights as well, but he was unable to find a finish.
(If Burns is unable to get his finish but has some big moments, this is also an ideal live-betting spot on Arce, so keep your eye on the live lines.)
The Pick: Herbert Burns in Round 1 (+850 at FanDuel)
Dan Tom: Nate Landwehr in Round 2 (+1100) | Landwehr in Round 3 (+1400)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target some "hot rounds" in a featured preliminary bout between Nate Landwehr and Jamall Emmers.
Whenever I refer to the term "hot rounds," I'm typically referring to rounds in which there is serious potential for a particular party to finish.
In this case, I'm taking some flier on a 'dog who will fight for your money in Landwehr.
Moreover, Landwehr finds himself in a matchup with Emmers, who has a quietly long history of making poor in-fight decisions in victory or defeat.
Whether Emmers is opting to grapple with submission specialists or is giving up position going for head-and-arm throws, the Miami-born fighter has continued to make mental hiccups while arguably underperforming throughout his career.
Add in the stressors of a roaring live crowd and a marauding Landwehr, and I can't help but take a flier on "The Train" at plus money.
If you're not confident enough to hammer Landwehr's moneyline, then I suggest looking at the Clarksville native to finish in either Rounds 2 (+1100) or 3 (+1800) given the numbers they're going off at.
The Picks: Nate Landwehr in Round 2 (+1100 at FanDuel) | Landwehr in Round 3 (+1400 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Rhys McKee by Submission (+1300)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
Kicking off Saturday's UFC Atlantic City main card is a bout between unranked welterweights Chidi Njokuani and Rhys McKee. The UFC loves to start their main card with fights that are likely to end in a finish, and that is exactly the case once again on Saturday as oddsmakers have this fight to "Not Go the Distance" as wide as -550.
It is extremely likely we get a finish in this fight, and if McKee is to pull off the upset as a short underdog, then I believe 13/1 is too long of a price to pass up on his submission prop. McKee is certainly more of a striker, but he can mix it up on the mat and has claimed three submission victories across his 13 professional wins.
Only three out of the 13 is why this prop is as long as +1300, but four of McKee's five amateur wins also came by submission. Of those seven total submission victories, three came by rear-naked choke.
I mention this because Njokuani has a problem of giving up the neck, and both of his past two submission losses also came by rear-naked choke. Another reason why I like this flier is that I believe McKee should attempt to bring this fight to the mat.
Whether he does or not remains to be seen, but the idea will have at least been considered in camp considering that Njokuani boasts a one-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. You take away those advantages by closing the distance and either going into the clinch or shooting for takedowns, both of which can lead to submission opportunities.
If McKee does this, then a submission possibility could absolutely present itself. So, given the aforementioned trends with the rear-naked choke, I think 13/1 is worth a flier.
The Pick: Rhys McKee by Submission (+1300 at BetRivers)
Clint MacLean: Chris Weidman by Submission (+750)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET
It may seem a little insane to bet on Chris Weidman in 2024, but here we are. The UFC legend is looking to go out on top, and the UFC seems to have booked him very favorably to do so against Bruno Silva in a UFC Atlantic City main-card bout.
Weidman didn't win his comeback fight against Brad Tavares. However, Tavares has elite takedown defense, and the Weidman camp admittedly came with a bad game plan.
Silva has seven pro losses by finish, and all seven were by submission. While Bruno is a monster on the feet and is a danger to land a KO at any time, he is not the biggest 185-pounder in the division and has a notable weakness on the mat.
Weidman is an All-American wrestler and a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who knows exactly where he has the advantage in a fight he desperately wants to win. I'll bet on him to follow the blueprint here.
The Pick: Chris Weidman by Submission (+750 at Betfred)
Bryan Fonseca: Joaquin Buckley by Round 1 KO (+850) | by Round 2 KO (+1100)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
Joaquin Buckley is one of these dudes who are fun to bet on because of the explosiveness.
He's up against Vicente Luque in Saturday's UFC Atlantic City co-main event. It's a stiff test, but I like Buckley as a long shot to get a stoppage in virtually any matchup he's in if the odds are +500 or greater.
Why not?
Buckley is 9-4 in his last 13 fights, and of the nine wins, eight are by knockout or technical knockout with six coming in the first two rounds. This includes his head-kick stoppage win over Andre Fialho in Round 2 this past May.
Luque's versatility makes him a deserved favorite, but he's two fights removed from being knocked out by Geoff Neal in Round 3 of their August 2022 bout. Of his nine losses, it's his only one by stoppage, and that includes a checkered resume of former champions such as Tyron Woodley and contenders including Stephen Thompson and Bilal Muhammad.
Buckley's explosion, offensive creativity and athleticism are overlooked problems heading into this fight – one I'll sprinkle on for him to get another stoppage.
The Picks: Joaquin Buckley by Round 1 KO (+850 at DraftKings) | Buckley by Round 2 KO (+1100 at FanDuel)
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