UFC Fight Night Bets, Predictions & Picks: Our Best Bets for Allen vs. Daukaus and Lins vs. Boser

UFC Fight Night Bets, Predictions & Picks: Our Best Bets for Allen vs. Daukaus and Lins vs. Boser article feature image
Credit:

Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Philipe Lins of Brazil (blue gloves).

  • With six bouts on Saturday's UFC Fight Night main card, there are plenty of options to find some betting value.
  • Our MMA experts are looking to bet two specific matchups: Philipe Lins (-121 betting favorite) vs. Tanner Boser (-104 underdog) and Brendan Allen (-305 favorite) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+235 underdog).
  • Check out their picks for tonight, along with breakdowns for each fight.

The UFC’s last fight at the APEX in Las Vegas — before going to the mysterious Fight Island in two weeks — should be a good one with 10 solid bouts up and down the card. The four preliminary bouts will start at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+ followed by six main card fights at 8 p.m. ET.

Our UFC experts have pinpointed two fights on the main card that they are looking to bet. You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.


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Dann Stupp: Philipe Lins vs. Tanner Boser

UFC Contributor at The Action Network

The first of the card’s two heavyweight fights features former PFL tournament winner and Brazilian vet Philipe Lins against “The Bulldozer” from Canada, Tanner Boser.

In his recent UFC debut just six weeks ago, Lins (14-4) dropped a unanimous decision to ex-champ Andrei Arlovski. However, since he left the bout relatively healthy – and because UFC officials love ’em some heavyweight slobberknockers – the heavy-handed big man got booked to fight fellow headhunter Boser (17-6-1) on fairly short notice.

In this near-pick’em of a fight, I give the edge to Lins, who has the volume, power and versatility to emerge victorious more often than not.

As with other recent UFC events at the Apex facility in Las Vegas, UFC officials are employing the smaller 25-foot cage. That could work against Bose, who relied heavily on leg kicks during his lone UFC win – a 2019 decision victory over Daniel Spitz. In the smaller cage, the 28-year-old could struggle to find the room he needs to employ an effective low-kick assault. It also gives Lins ample opportunity to chuck some of his patented overhand rights – or wrangle the fight to the mat, where the 34-year-old’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt should give him a noticeable edge if they hit the mat.

Although Boser posted six knockout wins in his first nine career wins, six of his past eight victories have gone to the judges’ scorecards. He’s a high-output, lower-power striker (among fellow heavyweights, anyway), and against Lins’ multi-faceted game and fight-stopping power, it just won’t be enough.

Pick: Philipe Lins (-115)

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Sean Zerillo: Brendan Allen vs. Kyle Daukaus

Betting Analyst, The Action Network

Kyle Daukaus didn’t sign with the UFC until mid-June, so he technically qualifies both as a UFC newcomer (43% win rate) and a late replacement (37% win rate) against the talented Brendan Allen, in what looks like a competitive grappling affair.

Allen should have the more bottomless gas tank — having fought five rounds four times already in his career, and Daukaus is much more accomplished with top control than at takedown defense or getting back to his feet.

Daukaus has a strong submission game and is equally likely to win by decision (+600) or submission (+600).

Allen, by submission (+150), is favored in the winning method market, and the crowdsourced projection sets Allen’s submission odds at +140, KO/TKO at +614, and decision at +241.

The Allen decision prop (+300), therefore, offers the most betting value.

But the crowd thinks that the fight should only be +212 (32.1%) to go the distance – so there isn’t any value there compared to the listed odds at +175.

I’m cautious in going entirely against Daukaus, a talented, undefeated prospect who is a substantial addition to the UFC roster. But Allen is currently the more skilled fighter in all aspects, and this is his fight to lose. I plan on using Allen’s moneyline odds as a parlay piece.

Pick: Brendan Allen by decision +300

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