Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks: Can the UFC Vet End His Recent Spiral?

Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks: Can the UFC Vet End His Recent Spiral? article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Jose Aldo.

  • Jose Aldo hasn't won a fight in the octagon in nearly two years and faces Marlon Vera, who is known to go for the finish when its there.
  • Sean Zerillo explains why the betting value in Saturday's UFC co-main is on the total instead of the fighters.

Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera Odds

Aldo odds
-150 [BET NOW]
Vera odds
+120 [BET NOW]
Over/Under
2.5 (-230/+165) [BET NOW]
Venue
UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Time
Approx. 8:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN+

Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


In the co-main event of Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night event, No. 7-ranked Bantamweight challenger Jose Aldo will square off against No. 15-ranked challenger Marlon Vera. Aldo is seeking to snap his three-fight losing streak, the longest of his impressive career. Vera is coming off a huge August win and has been in a groove over the past two years, winning six of his past seven fights.

So which fighter has the edge in this matchup? I’ll break down the matchup and betting odds below, but you can find my full breakdown of Saturday’s card here.

Tale of the Tape

Aldo Vera
Record 28-7 16-6-1
Avg. Fight Time 13:39 10:30
Height 5’7″ 5’8″
Weight (pounds) 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach (inches) 70″ 70″
Stance Orthodox Switch
Date of birth 9/9/86 12/2/92
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.48 3.70
SS Accuracy 44% 48%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.55 4.05
SS Defense 62% 52%
Take Down Avg 0.60 0.86
TD Acc 61% 42%
TD Def 90% 69%
Submission Avg 0.1 1.2

Aldo vs. Vera Betting Pick

For all of the controversy surrounding the late stoppage – as Petr Yan brutalized Jose Aldo in the fifth round of their July 12 Bantamweight title fight – it’s easy to forget how close that bout was in the early stages.

Aldo won the second round, pulling the live odds to a pick’em heading into Round 3 before the 34-year-old legend began to wear down and absorb more damage than he was giving back.

It was a potential life-changing beating for Aldo, who will try to break a three-fight losing streak on Saturday night against rising contender Marlon Vera – who capitalized on Sean O’Malley’s foot injury in their Aug. 15 contest.

Historically, “Chito” Vera is an extremely slow starter. Still, he has also never been finished. While Aldo (a BJJ blackbelt) is rarely tested on the ground (90% takedown defense) – Chito is more of an opportunistic grappler who seizes upon moments in the fight rather than attacking takedowns (0.86 landed per 15 minutes, 42% accuracy) or submissions (1.2 attempted per 15 minutes).

As a result, I expect Vera to lose the first round against an in-form Aldo, who should begin to tire out in the second half of the fight. However, it’s difficult to envision Vera (52% striking defense, -0.35 differential) winning a standup battle against Aldo (62% striking defense, -0.07 differential) unless he repeatedly works the body, so I can’t necessarily recommend placing a live wager.

Aldo needs to rely on early volume to win the first two rounds, and Chito will likely be searching for a late finish against a tiring opponent.

This is the first step down in competition for Aldo in some time – his first fight against an opponent ranked outside of the top five since UFC 129 – and I don’t think “Chito” has ascended to the top of that food chain quite yet.

I see some value in this fight to go the distance (projected 66%), and I’ll take a small stab on the Over 2.5 rounds at -200 or better.

Pick: Aldo/Vera, Over 2.5 Rounds (-200)

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