UFC Fight Night Marcin Tybura vs. Greg Hardy Odds & Picks: Can Hardy Survive Deep Waters?
Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: Greg Hardy.
- Greg Hardy has moved to the favorite in his matchup with Marcin Tybura, but is he being overvalued?
- Sean Zerillo details why there's value on the dog in this heavyweight UFC Fight Night matchup.
Marcin Tybura vs. Greg Hardy Odds
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Greg Hardy has slowly but steadily established himself as a solid fighter in the heavyweight division and will open Saturday night's UFC Fight Night card with a matchup against Marcin Tybura in the last 2020 card at the UFC APEX. Hardy will likely close as the favorite after his dominant win over Maurice Greene just 49 days ago. Tybura has gone from the favorite at open to a slight underdog despite having 21 more days of rest.
So where's the betting value in the fight? I'll break down the matchup and betting odds below, but you can find my full breakdown of Saturday's card here.
Tale of the Tape
| Tybura | Hardy | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-6 | 7-2 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:03 | 5:53 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 249 lbs. | 265 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 80" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/9/85 | 7/28/88 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.60 | 4.77 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.13 | 2.78 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.63 | 0.24 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 33% |
| TD Def | 82% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Tybura vs. Hardy Betting Pick
This fight is essentially a pick'em on paper, but either man could look like a significant favorite in hindsight, given the relative strengths, weaknesses, and question marks surrounding both men.
Hardy continues to make improvements at Heavyweight – looking incredibly composed in his victory over Maurice Greene – but Tybura presents his first real test against a true grappler (1.63 takedowns per 15 minutes, 47% accuracy) who could potentially wear him down early, empty his gas tank, and drag him to deep waters.
Whether Tybura has the strength to hold down the former All-Pro defensive lineman is the biggest mystery surrounding how this fight plays out.
Tybura is more technical on the feet, but Hardy has landed a higher volume of strikes (+1.17 per minute) with superior efficiency ( +1.99 to +0.47 strike differential) throughout his short career, and he certainly packs more power than his opponent.
Tybura is much more well-rounded than any of Hardy's previous opponents. However, he also has significantly more experience than all of those fighters except for Alexander Volkov.
Tybura opened as a -135 favorite and has become a slight underdog as of writing, but I like the value on his odds to win by decision (projected +192) given the stylistic nature of this matchup. You can bet that prop small to +200.
This is a good litmus test for the level of Hardy's skills and the impact of his overall physicality at this stage of his career.
Pick: Marcin Tybura wins by Decision (+200)
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