UFC Odds, Props & Picks: Betting Rothwell vs. de Lima, More Early Finishes (Saturday, November 13)
Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC fighter Ben Rothwell.
- We've got another UFC Fight Night card in store this Saturday and nine of the 11 UFC bouts are projected to end by decision.
- Our MMA analyst, Erich Richter, still see value on two UFC finishing props in two matchups: Sean Woodson vs. Collin Anglin and Ben Rothwell vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima.
- Find his analysis and top bets on those fights below.
After one of the best pay-per-view events of the year at Madison Square Garden, the UFC returns to Las Vegas this weekend for more action. The card features 11 fights starting with the prelims at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and the main card starting around 4 p.m. ET.
DraftKings is projecting nine of the 11 scheduled fights to go the distance this weekend. Typically, this would make it a bit tougher than usual to find value in fights to end in a finish, however, I see some value here.
Expecting that many decisions is usually a bad bet in the UFC. With that, I am featuring my favorite finishing bets that include a wily veteran and a budding prospect. Below I preview the two best finishing props for this weekend’s action.
UFC Fight Night Prop Bets
Sean Woodson vs. Collin Anglin
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (-190) / No (+140)
Woodson is a big favorite this weekend — well above -300 at every book — entering this fight. Anglin lost his UFC debut by knockout to Melsik Baghdasaryan and Woodson is expected to coast in this fight and dominate Anglin with his striking. Woodson struggles on the ground, so if Anglin wants a shot to win this fight he will want to get Woodson to the ground.
Anglin was knocked out in his last fight against a worse striker, so Woodson should be able to get Anglin out of there within the first two rounds. Unfortunately, there is little value on Woodson in Rounds 1 or 2 at +275, so I will take inside the distance at +225 at DraftKings in case he needs more time to close the show. I would bet this UFC prop down to +180.
Prop bet: Sean Woodson Inside the Distance +225
Ben Rothwell vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (+165) / No (-225)
This might be one of the more uninspiring fights in the heavyweight division. Somehow de Lima won a full 15-minute decision against Maurice Greene in May while only landing 14 significant strikes. In the past, he has shown to have bad cardio and poor defensive grappling.
Ben Rothwell has four wins by submission in the UFC, including one in May of this year. He is likely to have the grappling advantage against de Lima whose five losses have all come by submission. Rothwell could easily win this fight on the ground with a Kimura lock or a front headlock that he has mastered.
Rothwell by submission is +420 on FanDuel, which I would bet down to +350 this weekend.
Prop bet: Ben Rothwell by submission +420