Max Holloway vs. Chan Sung Jung Odds
On Saturday the UFC returns to Singapore for the first time since UFC 275, when Jiri Prochazka defeated Glover Teixeira by fifth-round submission in one of the most exciting title bouts in UFC history.
Saturday's UFC Singapore headliner features a pair of featherweight legends in Max "Blessed" Holloway and "The Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung ("TKZ"), who will cap a 13-fight card that starts early on Saturday morning in the U.S. (5 a.m. ET, ESPN+).
With impressive wins in recent years over Arnold Allen, Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez, Holloway – the former champion – has proven that there is a tier between him and the other 145-pound contenders despite a trio of losses to the current champion and potential No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter Alexander Volkanovski.
Jung enters UFC Singapore this weekend off a fourth-round knockout loss to Volkanovski in April 2022 at UFC 273. Many expected him to retire after that one-sided defeat, and he may ultimately call it quits if he loses again on Saturday.
This fight will mark the Zombie's 10th consecutive main event and five-round fight, which might be a UFC record for a non-champion.
This should be an exciting striking affair between two UFC fan favorites.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections and utilize those factors to bet on the UFC Singapore main event between Max Holloway and Chan Sung Jung.
Tale of the Tape
| Holloway | Jung | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-7 | 17-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:08 | 12:29 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 146 pounds | 146 pounds |
| Reach | 69 inches | 72 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/4/1991 | 3/17/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 7.16 | 3.97 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 4.79 | 4.35 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 52% |
| Take Down Average | 0.28 | 0.74 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 47% |
| TD Def | 84% | 72% |
| Submission Average | 0.3 | 0.7 |
Max Holloway is one of the best boxers in the UFC, and he has a significant hand speed advantage in this fight, which should be enough to overcome a three-inch reach discrepancy despite standing four inches taller.
TKZ likely carries the power advantage, but Holloway is one of the most durable fighters in MMA history, getting knocked down once (in the third fight against Volkanovski) across his entire career.
Still, the Hawaiian has seemed a touch more fragile of late, getting wobbled in various moments by both Allen and Rodriguez on either side of that recent loss to Volk, in which he allowed more strikes (199) than ever before.
Holloway's chin may be starting to crack after absorbing an average of 135 strikes over his past nine fights (all since December 2018).
While TKZ is an extremely one-dimensional striker, rarely mixing up targets to the body or legs, he might find opportunities to counter and crack an extremely hittable and often overzealous Holloway.
However, the Korean might need that sequence to finish the job if he wants to see his hand raised.
Unless he wobbles Holloway in multiple rounds, it's challenging to imagine TKZ winning enough minutes to secure scorecards in a pure kickboxing match; Holloway has a significant output edge (15 vs. 9.4 strike attempts per minute) and is the much more efficient and technical striker (+2.37 vs. -0.38 strikes landed per minute).
And while Jung is accustomed to 25-minute battles, Holloway combines his elite durability with some of the best stamina in the sport; he can maintain a breakneck pace for the duration of any fight.
Jung's best path to victory is to wrestle and get to dominant grappling positions as he did in his underdog win against Dan Ige (landed 3 of 5 takedowns for 10:10 of control time) in June 2021.
Holloway has excellent takedown defense (84%) and has shown urgency to scramble off his back after successful attempts.
I doubt that TKZ can take Holloway down, but if he does, he could secure the round with positional control or attempt to lock in a submission.
Ultimately, however, we haven't seen Jung perform in nearly 18 months, coming off the worst beating of his career, in which he already seemed to have regressed athletically and may continue to struggle to hang with the division's elite.
Holloway vs. Korean Zombie Pick
I projected Max Holloway as a -625 favorite (86.2% implied odds) in this matchup, and I don't see value on either side of the moneyline.
I expect the bout to end inside the distance 69% of the time (-222 implied odds) and see slight value concerning both the "Under" and the "Fight to End Inside the Distance" props.
However, I would prefer to bet Holloway to win inside the distance (projected -152) or by KO/TKO (projected -127) at a more significant edge and reduced juice compared to the unders.
I expect Holloway to finish an aging, slowing Jung at least 70% of the time if he does win, likely via an attritional-based stoppage in the later rounds.
As for some alternative angles, I also considered betting Holloway to win in Round 4, Round 5, or by decision, or playing an SGP with Holloway and the Over 2.5 Rounds (-165).
The Pick: Max Holloways wins inside the distance (-125 at DraftKings)
