Read our UFC Vegas 110 predictions for the Saturday, November 1 event at the UFC Apex. The entire 13-fight card airs on ESPN+ starting at 4:00 p.m. ET, with the main card officially starting at 7:00 p.m.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Vegas 110 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 110 Prop Projections
Alice Ardelean vs. Montserrat Ruiz
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:45 a.m. ET
While I typically choose to interpret "best bet" as the bet I feel is mostly likely to hit, this week's is instead the one I like best relative to the current odds.
That's because there's absolutely no reason Alice Ardelean should be the heaviest favorite on any UFC card. She's a -355 favorite — tied with Donte Johnson for the best odds on the slate — against Montserrat "Conejo" Ruiz at DraftKings.
As Sean Zerillo correctly pointed out in our UFC betting preview (available exclusively on Discord) this week, Ruiz is a one-trick pony. The former Mexican women's national wrestling champion has an excellent headlock throw, which she then transitions into a kesa-gatame or "scarfhold" position that allows her to pin her opponents down while she deals damage and hunts for submissions. Her short frame — she stands 5'0" with a 61" reach — makes that particular position easier to secure, as she can more effectively concentrate her weight into a smaller area.
Plus, that one trick is one more trick than Alice Ardelean brings to the Octagon. The inlfuencer-turned-fighter isn't particularly adept at any aspect of mixed martial arts, with her one UFC win coming via activity more than effectiveness. She's landed nearly seven significant strikes per minute in the UFC but connects at just a 44% clip, and is yet to score a knockdown in her 45 minutes of cage time.
To be fair, she also doesn't have the massive flaw that Ruiz has in her game. The underdog has been knocked out in three straight fights, with extremely poor striking defense and durability. However, she's also been out of competition for nearly two years, so there's an outside shot her chin has recovered and/or she's made some improvements in terms of striking defense.
Either way, I'm happy to get +310 odds on the fighter with the best singular ability, especially in a fight that's -225 to go the distance. That's Ruiz, with her best odds on BetMGM
The Pick: Montserrat Ruiz +310 (BetMGM)
Themba Gorimbo vs. Jeremiah Wells
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
