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UFC Vegas 64 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos: Main Event Comes Down to Gas Tank (Saturday, November 5)

UFC Vegas 64 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos: Main Event Comes Down to Gas Tank (Saturday, November 5) article feature image
Credit:

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC strawweight Marina Rodriguez

  • Strawweight title challengers Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos tangle in Saturday's UFC Vegas 64 main event.
  • Analyst Sean Zerillo says this matchup has a drastic cardio discrepancy that could determine the eventual winner. 
  • Check out his breakdown below to see how he's betting this fight.

Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos Odds

Rodriguez Odds
-225
Lemos Odds
+190
Over/Under
4.5 (+105 / -135)
Venue
UFC Apex in Las Vegas
Time
9 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN+
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

A future strawweight title challenger could emerge from Saturday’s UFC Vegas 64 main event between a pair of Brazilians: No. 3-ranked contender Marina Rodriguez and No. 7-ranked Amanda Lemos.

Rodriguez enters on a four-fight winning streak, and Saturday’s bout (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+) will mark her third main event appearance, all at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.

Lemos has never been past the 15-minute mark in her career. She lost her only main event bout – against Jessica Andrade last April – but owns a 4-1 record in the small cage at the Apex.

Below, I’ll provide my analysis and projections for Saturday’s matchup and utilize those factors to bet on the UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos main event.

Tale of the Tape

Rodriguez Lemos
Record 16-1-2 12-2-1
Avg. Fight Time 14:54 6:59
Height 5’6″ 5’4″
Weight (pounds) 115 lbs. 115 lbs.
Reach (inches) 65″ 65″
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Date of birth 4/29/1987 5/22/1987
Sig Strikes Per Min 5.03 4.87
SS Accuracy 47% 57%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.07 4.40
SS Defense 57% 48%
Take Down Avg 0.20 1.07
TD Acc 33% 57%
TD Def 65% 81%
Submission Avg 0.2 0.5

Similar to other recent main events, this matchup has a drastic cardio discrepancy that could determine the eventual winner. 

As I mentioned, Lemos has never been past the third round in her career – but her output has slowed even in the third round of her fights.

Stylistically, I would classify her as a finisher (10 of 12 wins inside the distance). Lemos is violent, but she tends to cede minutes and volume to her opponents while she looks to counter and land explosive techniques. And being finish-reliant in the lightest division, with the lowest finish rate (32.2%), isn’t necessarily sustainable.

Still, Lemos is 2-0 on the scorecards in three-round fights.

I expect Rodriguez to win most of the minutes if this fight remains at kickboxing range. She’s faster, has cleaner technique, and offers more output and diversity than Lemos.

And the gap in volume should grow in the latter stages of the fight – as Rodriguez maintains or builds her pace while Lemos manages her energy and limits her offense.

Marina doesn’t load significant power into any individual shot, but she could find an attritional-based stoppage against a tiring opponent.

The underdog carries significantly more power and likely has the grappling upside too. Still, Lemos doesn’t often wrestle – attempting 1.9 takedowns per 15 minutes. She prefers to counter-wrestle (81% defense) and strike, and Rodriguez is happy to keep the fight standing.

Still, if Lemos does get on top, it could be a round in her favor. While Rodriguez offers solid first-level takedown defense – and solid defensive jiu-jitsu – she tends to close her guard and stay safe on her back rather than scrambling back to her feet. And Lemos is a dangerous submission grappler, so I’d expect her to get an early lead with top time (or find opportunities to finish) if she wrestles from the outset.

That said, Lemos doesn’t have the gas tank to proactively wrestle without finishing; her cardio would severely diminish in the second half of the fight – as it has in moderate-paced striking affairs.

Rodriguez should be able to keep this fight standing at some point – whether she denies takedowns initially – or later in the fight as Lemos tires. And while the striking should be competitive, Rodriguez should be the far more active fighter, particularly in the late rounds.

I’d expect to find a better price on Marina in the live market than you will get pre-fight.

Depending on the pace, you can search for a live bet on Rodriguez after Round 2 and/or Round 3. Any success Lemos might have should be frontloaded, and she may need a finish or a 10-8 round to win (or draw).

Rodriguez vs. Lemos Pick

I projected Marina Rodriguez as a 71.1% favorite (-246 implied) in this fight, and I would normally bet her moneyline up to -225 (69.2% implied), at nearly a 2% edge compared to my number.

As I mentioned, I expect to find a better live number on the favorite after the first few rounds. I’m not as interested in laying 2-to-1 to back Rodriguez pre-fight when most of Lemos’ finishing upside is tied to the opening 10 minutes.

I see value in the fight to reach a decision (projected 51%, -105) and in Rodriguez winning by decision (projected +134). Usually, when I check all three boxes (moneyline, over, decision prop; or moneyline, under, finish prop) – especially on a favorite – I bet the winning method prop instead of laying the juice.

However, the five-round format – and Lemos’ concerning cardio – led me to an alternative angle.

I played Rodriguez and the Over 2.5 Rounds in an SGP at DraftKings (+105), which gives me all of her decision equity and late finish equity as Lemos potentially fades.

I’m happy with a plus-money position on Rodriguez pre-fight and will look to add to her side live in the middle rounds.

The Pick: SGP: Marina Rodriguez and Over 2.5 Rounds (+105, 0.5u at Draftkings) | Rodriguez Live after Round 2 and Round 3

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