UFC Vegas 70 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Andre Muniz vs. Brendan Allen: Take This Plus-money Prop in Co-main Event (Saturday, February 25)
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC middleweight Andre Muniz of Brazil
- Andre Muniz and Brendan Allen meet in Saturday's UFC Vegas 70 co-main event.
- The bout provides an interesting stylistic matchup, but Dan Tom thinks one fighter's jiu-jitsu could be the difference-maker.
- Check out his breakdown and recommended betting strategy for the ESPN+ bout below.
(Editor's note: As the UFC Vegas 70 main card kicked off, UFC officials announced the cancellation of the scheduled headliner after Nikita Krylov suffered an undisclosed illness and was forced out of his bout with Ryan Spann.)
Andre Muniz vs. Brendan Allen Odds
The UFC Vegas 70 co-main event on Saturday features an intriguing middleweight matchup between Andre Muniz and Brendan Allen.
After securing his third consecutive win since a short-notice loss to Chris Curtis, Allen is getting one of the names he's been asking for in Muniz.
Allen may be the more familiar face to fans given the fact that he's been more active in the organization, but his opponent has been steadily garnering hype from the hardcores.
Muniz, who is a fighter I've been high on for some time, is riding a nine-fight winning streak heading into the UFC Vegas 70 co-headliner (with his last five coming under the UFC banner).
Although I believe that Muniz should be fighting higher up in the rankings, Allen presents an interesting stylistic test for the 33-year-old Brazilian.
Tale of the Tape
| Muniz | Allen | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-4 | 20-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:06 | 8:20 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 75" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/17/1990 | 12/28/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.91 | 3.99 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.45 | 4.01 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 44% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.71 | 1.31 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 44% |
| TD Def | 45% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 2.1 | 1.5 |
Allen, who is officially 6-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws, has made some solid strides in his striking game in recent years.
Under the care of noted striking coach Henri Hooft, Allen has shored up a lot of his fundamentals, seemingly striking just as well with southpaw opposition as he does against orthodox opponents.
Whether Allen is staying active with jabs and feints off his lead hand or slamming home body kicks from the power side, the American will likely carry a slight edge in the standing exchanges. That said, Allen will need to be mindful of his cage positioning inside of the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex center.
Not only has Allen suffered both of his UFC losses along the fence of the Apex, but the Louisiana native also tends to surrender a majority of his takedowns in said space.
Muniz, who scores most of his takedowns against the cage, will probably be salivating for offensive-shot opportunities if Allen gets lackadaisical with his positioning.
Although Muniz is also an improved striker with a strong body kick in tow, the third-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt clearly butters his bread on the mat.
From slick trips in the close to single-leg attempts that encourage back exposure, Muniz is masterful at creating opportunistic openings while still staying sticky in transition. And outside of one suspect performance (a UFC debut at high elevation), Muniz has shown the ability to grapple for 15 minutes if unable to secure one of his patented armbars.
That said, Allen – albeit not with the same ranking or accolades – is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu whose grappling skills should be respected. Not only is Allen a dangerous opportunistic finisher, but the 27-year-old also seems to have a knack for reversing bad positions.
Muniz vs. Allen Pick
Despite opening as a pick'em, public money continues to trickle in on the Brazilian, listing Muniz -230 and Allen +180 as of Friday afternoon.
Although Muniz has been a money train for me since he entered the UFC, I can't say that I'm digging the betting spread above.
Perhaps it's my current cold streak that has me second-guessing my confidence in Muniz's moneyline, but the influx of line inflation from the "CLV" crowd certainly isn't helping my enthusiasm as a fight-week bettor.
Nevertheless, I'm ultimately confident in Muniz's skills opposite of most in the middleweight division.
Not only does Muniz have a "game-over" level of submission ability that almost acts as a constant kryptonite at 185 pounds and upward, but Allen also has costly grappling habits that involve dropping for leg-locks, going for guillotines and giving up his back in scrambles.
Couple that with the notes in the previous section on Allen's cage positioning, and I suspect that the smaller octagon continues to be kinder to the Brazilian than it does the American. I'm not sure I'll make it to the moneyline given current market trends, so I'll happily take a stab at a Muniz submission prop at plus money instead.
The Pick: Andre Muniz by submission (+128 at BetRivers) | Bet to +110
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