F1 Bahrain Grand Prix Best Bets and Odds: 3 Picks & Predictions for Season Opener (Saturday, March 2)
Mark Thompson/Getty Images. Pictured: F1 driver Sergio Perez of Mexico and Oracle Red Bull Racing
Check out the F1 Bahrain Grand Prix Best Bets and latest F1 odds for the Formula 1 season opener on Saturday morning, March 2.
For the fourth straight year, we kick off the F1 season in the Kingdom of Bahrain. This season kicks off a week after testing, which also took place in the Middle East at the Bahrain International Circuit.
Coming off a three-peat as a champion in the World Drivers’ Championship, Max Verstappen is your heavy favorite both for the F1 season championship, but also the F1 Bahrain Grand Prix race itself on Saturday (10 a.m. ET, ESPN and ESPN+). Here are the latest race odds:
- Max Verstappen (-600)
- Charles Leclerc (+650)
- George Russell (+2200)
- Carlos Sainz (+2500)
- Sergio Perez (+2800)
- Lewis Hamilton (+3300)
Before we jump into our F1 Bahrain Best Bets, a little history and a track primer: The Bahrain International Circuit opened for racing in 2004, and it has been on the F1 calendar every year since except for 2011.
The track is best known as the host of the first Formula One event held in the Middle East. The F1 Bahrain GP features 57 laps on a track that has 15 corners, three DRS zones, and plenty of sand to contend with for a night race in the desert. New regulations for the 2024 season enable DRS after the first lap as opposed to having to wait until after Lap 2.
Use our bet365 bonus code to get bonus bets for today's F1 Bahrain Grand Prix.
Qualifying took place on Friday evening (local time) with unseasonably cool temperatures at the track. Despite up-and-down testing and free practice sessions, Verstappen puts in two flying laps in Q3 to secure pole position in Bahrain for the second consecutive year. With a final lap time of 1:29.179, he went 0.228 seconds clear of the field when it mattered most.
With the low time of the day, Charles Leclerc put in a lap time of 1:29.165 in Q2, but he managed only to get onto the front row with a 1:29.407 in Q3.
There weren’t any real surprise exits from Q1 or Q2. Both Red Bulls, Ferraris, McLarens and Mercedes made it into the final qualifying session. Veteran Fernando Alonso was the lone Aston Martin driver to make it into Q3. Nico Hulkenberg of Haas also had a surprise entry into Q3.
The most disappointing showing from qualifying had to be the lack of pace from the Alpine cars. Last season, the team was able to secure massive funding from celebrities and A-list athletes, which translated into a sixth-place finish in last year's World Constructors’ Championship. Alpine overhauled its entire car design, and the only remaining part from last season is the steering wheel.
Esteban Ocon finished P19 and Pierre Gasly was right behind him in P20 during Q1 to start at the back of the grid.
Here are my F1 Bahrain Grand Prix picks and predictions for post-qualifying.
*Odds as of Saturday and via bet365.
F1 Bahrain Grand Prix Odds and Best Bets
Opening-Lap Fade of Mercedes
While Mercedes was able to edge out Ferrari for second place in the Constructors’ Championship last season, both drivers were fighting their Mercedes car seemingly the entire season. George Russell in particular can’t be satisfied with his individual finish after finishing way down in eighth place in 2023.
Several times on the coverage you could see Russell and Hamilton complaining about the lack of pace in the car or that they were struggling with the car that particular race.
I do not have a lot of confidence that Mercedes has all of the kinks worked out to start the 2024 season. George Russell was having a pedestrian qualifying session before turning in a brilliant final lap in Q3 to start P3 for the race. In the previous two qualifying sessions, Russell was only P8 and P7 on the grid.
I am fading Russell’s opening lap of the race, thinking he will drop back at least one place coming out of Turn 1. With the Ferrari of Sainz next to him on the grid and Perez right behind him to start, I believe one of these two will be able to cut off the Mercedes before the end of the first lap.
The Pick: George Russell – End of 1st Lap Position – 4th or worse (1 unit, +120 at bet365)
Red Bull Continued Dominance
Max Verstappen blitzed the field from jump street last season, and he ran away with the title and won a record 19 races in a single season.
His teammate, Sergio Perez, despite his off-and-on struggles during qualifying, excelled on race day in the RB-19 that was miles ahead of the rest of the grid. Perez easily came in second in the driver's championship behind two race wins and eight podium finishes in 2023.
While Perez will start the race in P5, I feel that he will be driving a superior car compared to the Mercedes and Ferraris in front of him. Last year, Verstappen and Perez finished Nos. 1-2 in Bahrain, and it should be another double podium for the Red Bull teammates.
I will take the plus money price and expect Perez to once again show out on race day above and beyond his qualifying pace.
The Pick: Sergio Perez – Podium Finish (1 unit, +120 on DraftKings or ESPN BET)
Fastest Lap for Ferrari
Verstappen will start on pole position and is the heavy (-600) favorite to win the Bahrain GP. Starting right next to him on the grid will be the newly extended Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc.
As mentioned earlier, Leclerc had the fastest lap time of the qualifying session, but unfortunately for him, it came in Q2.
Coupled with that, two years ago, Leclerc on this same exact track won pole position, won the race and took home the extra point with the fastest lap of the race.
I don’t think Leclerc will be able to beat Verstappen during the race, but look for Charles and Ferrari to put on the soft tires at the end of the race and try to earn that extra point with the fastest lap.
The Pick: Charles Leclerc – Fastest Lap (0.5 units, +650 on BetRivers)
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