F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: 3 Best Bets for Sunday’s 2022 United States Grand Prix in Austin (October 9)
Clive Rose/Getty Images. Pictured: Sebastian Vettel of Germany and Aston Martin F1 Team
It’s official: Following his runaway victory in Japan, Max Verstappen is the Formula 1 World Champion for the second year on the bounce.
A rain-soaked race saw Verstappen win by 27 seconds over his teammate, Sergio Perez, who caught Charles Leclerc on the last lap with the help of a five-second penalty for Leclerc, giving Verstappen the title.
As for our bets, it was a race to forget. That time penalty marked our “Leclerc – winner without Verstappen” bet a loser. Elsewhere, we lost on Ferrari to win pole position while Lewis Hamilton missed out on a podium by two places.
Those results move our season-long record to 26-28 (+0.7 units) as we unleash a new trio of picks for this week’s United States Grand Prix in Austin.
Without delay, let’s get to the picks.
F1 Picks for United States Grand Prix
*Odds as of Wednesday
Sergio Perez Podium Finish (+100 at PointsBet)
(Sprinkle: Sergio Perez Race Winner at +1000 at FanDuel)
Since the second half of the season began, Sergio Perez has proven remarkable for Red Bull.
Just in his last five races, Perez has a win, two P2s along with a P5 in the Netherlands and a P6 at Monza. For the season as a whole, Perez has finished P3 or better in nine of the 15 grands prix in which he’s crossed the finish line.
But, what gives me the most confidence in this bet is that Perez has excelled this season at correlative circuits to Austin. In those five races – Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spa and Baku – Perez has gone DNF-P4-P1-P2-P2. However, I’m not the least bit concerned by that DNF as Perez was running in P3 on the final lap before spinning out.
Furthermore, Perez has established himself as an outstanding qualifier in the races at correlative circuits. Just in those five Saturday qualifying sessions, Perez has never qualified worse than P4, and he owns three qualifying outputs of P2 or better.
Finally, I’m encouraged by the market move on Perez as he opened at +100 and has since moved to -110, suggesting sharp action on Perez grabbing a podium.
Bet to -120 on Perez finishing atop the podium.
Fernando Alonso Top-6 Finish (+200 at BetMGM)
Much like Perez, Fernando Alonso has produced some outstanding results at the correlative circuits this year.
In qualifying, the Alpine representative averaged a P7.2 position and qualified P6 and P5, respectively, at Spa and Singapore. The race results have proven positive as well: In the three races at correlative tracks in which Alonso has finished, he owns an average finish of P7, including a P5 at Spa.
Plus, dating back to the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, Alonso has registered himself as one of the most consistent drivers on track.
Over that 11-race span, the two-time world champion has only two DNFs and zero finishes outside the top 10 in the remaining nine. In those nine finishes, Alonso owns four top-six finishes.
Finally, I believe there’s inherent value in Alonso as I rate him ahead of both Lando Norris and Esteban Ocon in this market. Just in the five qualifying outputs at correlative circuits, Ocon has averaged a finish of P10.4 while Norris has qualified in P10.2 on average.
For those reasons, bet Alonso top-six at +175 or better.
Sebastian Vettel Points Finish (+110 at BetMGM)
For a driver without any kind of motivation, Sebastian Vettel has bagged points for Aston Martin at a rate that’s somewhat surprising.
Just across his previous five grands prix, the four-time world champion has scored a points finish in three races, including two straight in Singapore and Japan. Expand the sample to include all grands prix in which he’s finished this year, and bettors will find Vettel has scored points in eight of 13 races.
Even with some poor results mixed in for those 13 races, Vettel is still averaging a finish of P10 and has scored more than a single point on six of those eight occasions.
But, it’s once again the record at correlative circuits that leads me to take Vettel at a great price. Just in the three grands prix he’s partaken in at such circuits, the Aston Martin representative has scored points in all three.
Expand the sample to include all of last season’s races at correlative circuits, and bettors will find Vettel has scored points in six of eight races at correlative circuits, including a P10 last year in Austin.
For all those reasons, I’ll bet Vettel to +100 for a points finish on Sunday.