F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: 2 Bets for Season Finale at Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (Sunday, November 26)
Mark Thompson/Getty Images. Pictured: F1 driver Max Verstappen of the Netherlands and Oracle Red Bull
With much of the 2023 Formula 1 season's results already decided, the circuit now heads to Dubai for this 2023 season finale: the F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on Sunday morning (8 a.m. ET, ESPN and ESPN+).
Despite getting off to a rough start this past weekend, the F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix ended up being the spectacle that I believe F1 had hoped it would be when the event was planned. This track made for great racing, and the long straightaways provided plenty of passing opportunities, which also led to more cautions and variance.
Following his strong last two weekends, Sergio Perez has now locked up second place in the driver standings over third place Lewis Hamilton. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t other season-long battles to watch on the track at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix this weekend.
Fourth through seventh places in the driver standings are still up for grabs. Carlos Sainz and Fernando Alonso are currently tied for fourth with Lando Norris just five points behind and Charles Leclerc trailing the top two by just 12 points.
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Similar battles are shaping up in the constructor standings race, which is a much bigger deal among the teams on the grid as this affects their payouts for the season. Mercedes is four points ahead of Ferrari for second place while Aston Martin trails McLaren by 11 points for fourth.
As of Friday of race week, the F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix odds have Verstappen (-333) as the clear race favorite, and he's followed by hopefuls Norris (+1200), Perez (+1400), Leclerc (+1600) and Hamilton (+1800), according to Caesars.
Abu Dhabi is a much more balanced track than what we saw in Las Vegas. Teams will be rewarded much more for their downforce, which gives them the ability to take corners at a higher speed.
While Red Bull should be at the front of the grid once again, this helps out teams such Mercedes and McLaren, which may not have been perfectly suited to the streets of Las Vegas but should fare better at a course like this.
Before qualifying on Saturday morning (9 a.m. ET, ESPN and ESPN+), I've perused the F1 odds and now have my F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix prediction and best bets.
F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Odds and Picks
Max Verstappen's Grand Finale
If you’ve been following along with this column each race week, chances are that you haven’t placed many bets on Max Verstappen.
The world champ has been running away with the title, winning 18 of the 21 races this season and dominating almost every weekend.
While that may be super predictable, the books usually see it that way too, and he is priced accordingly, so we haven’t been looking to back him much this season.
That changes this week as there is a line that I believe to be heavily mispriced. Red Bull should once again be the strongest car, and Max will very likely win yet another grand prix in dominating fashion to cap off his historic season. The Red Bull is well-suited to this track, and there won’t be a single car on the grid that can provide too much resistance for them at Abu Dhabi.
Verstappen's toughest competition may be his teammate Sergio Perez, who is trying his best to keep his seat at Red Bull. Verstappen has been able to outdrive his teammate at almost every point this season, especially in the second half of the calendar.
Verstappen is priced between -170 to -175 to both win the pole in qualifying and win the race. However, Caesars prices Verstappen at -110 to do this, leaving an edge of approximately 10% by just taking the better line on the market here.
In this last race of the season, just sit back, take the champ to do his thing, and relax.
The Pick: Max Verstappen Fastest Qualifier & Race Winner (-110 at Caesars)
Oscar Piastri Top 6
If just betting Max Verstappen to dominate yet again doesn’t do it for you, I also have another driver whom I believe to be underpriced this weekend.
McLaren and Mercedes have been the main competition for Red Bull at balanced tracks such as this. Since Silverstone this summer, both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have had impressive showings with multiple podiums each and even a sprint race win in Qatar for Piastri.
McLaren is still in a tight fight for their final place in the constructor standings and will be fighting tooth and nail for position. I believe that Mercedes and McLaren will battle among themselves to be the second- and third-best teams on the weekend.
With that being said, Norris is fairly priced with the second-shortest odds to win the race. However, his teammate Piastri, who has matched Norris for much of the year, has the eighth-best odds.
I believe that Piastri will run better this weekend than the market is giving him credit for. I like backing the Aussie at +105 to score a top-six finish to cap off his strong rookie campaign.
The Pick: Oscar Piastri Top 6 Finish (+105 at DraftKings)
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