F1 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Back Lando Norris, Fade Ferrari at Mexican Grand Prix (Sunday, October 29)

Crossing over to the other side of the Rio Grande, F1 is in Mexico City today for the second consecutive Sunday race in North America.

The Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez hosts the F1 Mexican Grand Prix today (4 p.m. ET, ABC and ESPN+) for the 23rd time overall since coming back onto the calendar full-time back in 2015.

With the third-shortest lap this season, we get 71 racing laps to watch and enjoy today.

Last year, Max Verstappen won the F1 Mexican Grand Prix for the second consecutive year, that time from pole position. Lewis Hamilton and Sergio Perez both jumped Geroge Russell during the race to finish on the podium.

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A year prior in 2021, the podium finish of Verstappen, Hamilton and Perez was identical.

Can the trio repeat such a feat for the third consecutive time with the F1 race in Mexico City today?

This week, qualifying returned to its normal time slot on Saturday afternoon, and it was full of surprises.

While Verstappen, Hamilton and Russell all avoided grid penalties from being assessed after the session, that wouldn’t have even been the most intriguing storyline.

Verstappen will start on the second row of the grid, and Lando Norris didn’t even make it out of Q1 on Saturday. The McLaren driver failed to post a competitive lap time starting on the medium tires, and when switching to the softs near the end of the Q1 session, key mistakes prevented Norris from being the slowest on the grid.

F1 Mexican Grand Prix Odds and Bets 

Lando Norris Climbs Back

Lando Norris had a dreadful qualifying session and failed to post a lap time under 1:20.

He will start all the way back in P18 on the grid while, for comparison, his teammate starts in P7. Even with his poor starting position, the books have Norris well within the points for the Mexico City Grand Prix with his odds are set at around -250 for a points finish.

Norris leading into qualifying was near the top in all three practice sessions and will be able to overtake car after car during the race.

Specifically, Norris was the fourth-fastest driver during FP1 and the second-fastest on the grid during FP2. This gives me a lot of confidence that the McLaren will have great race pace, should he survive the inevitable mad dash at lights out to start.

Since Silverstone, the McLaren has consistently been the second-best car on the grid, and I don’t see that stopping on Sunday.

For example, take Sergio Perez and all of his qualifying struggles he has had this year. Round 9 in Canada, Perez started P12 on the grid and finished in P6. Round 10 in Austria, he started P15 and climbed all the way onto the podium, finishing P3.

Both of those tracks were shorter in length, having 70-plus laps during the race. Round 18 in Qatar, Perez started at the back of the grid and finished P10 in the points.

I see the points finish (top 10) for Norris being his floor for the Mexican Grand Prix, which is -250. For a similar prediction, I am also willing to take a +300 shot on the high upside that he can fight all the way back into a top-six spot at plus money.

Picks: Lando Norris Top 10 (2.5 units, -250 on bet365) | Norris Top 6 (1 unit, +300 on bet365) 

Double Ferrari Fade

Ferrari had a surprising one-two finish in Q3 to put both drivers on the front row of the grid to start the race. Sadly for the team, earning pole position has paid off only once this season with a victory: Carlos Sainz Jr. in Singapore a month and a half ago.

Of the three previous races starting on pole, Charles Leclerc has turned those into finishes of P3, P3 and the DSQ last week in Austin.

Despite the disqualification due to the excessive plank wear over the entire race weekend that was out of compliance with FIA rules, Leclerc still dropped back into P6 from pole due to a poor race strategy.

My point here is that Ferrari has shot themselves in the foot time and time again from the front of the grid this season whether due to the excessive tire wear problem, a poor race strategy, or the drivers not in good form.

For context, Sainz and Leclerc are still fifth and seventh, respectively, in the World Drivers’ Championship standings despite not living up to the lofty expectations of a top-three team.

There are several ways to bet this, but I am in favor of fading Leclerc at the top of the grid however I can. The results from this season support the fact that Leclerc will not win the race on Sunday, nor will he likely finish on the podium.

During qualifying alone, Leclerc was only sixth-fastest in Q1 and improved slightly and went fourth-fastest in Q2 before earning pole position in Q3. Ferrari have shown time and time again that they are strong on the straights and for one lap on Saturday, but more often than not they haven't backed that up on Sunday.

With both Red Bull cars behind them, starting in third and fifth, and Lewis Hamilton lurking in P6, it will take a monumental effort to hold off all of the ensuing pressure that will be on Ferrari from lights out.

I like betting against Leclerc and Sainz in all of their matchups on BetMGM, and my official pick is Charles Leclerc to not finish on the podium in Mexico City.

Pick: Charles Leclerc – Podium Finish? No (1 unit, -150 on bet365)