Hawks vs. Knicks Odds & Betting Predictions - April 29, 2026

Game log truthers should be all over KAT’s over after he’s cleared this in 3 of 4 games this series, including a 10-assist explosion last game. And yes, KAT always has the potential to rip off a huge assist game. But if you look at the 16 times he’s posted 6+ assists over the past two seasons, he’s averaged just 3.6 assists in the following game. Even KAT isn’t exempt from the laws of regression. A lot of his assists in Game 4 came on cuts to OG and Clarkson finishing high-% looks at the rim, so it’s not like he’s luck boxed his way into 20 assists on 23 potential assists. But his potential assist rate is way up while his actual pass rate is down, which is usually a strong regression signal. That could be helped along if the Hawks adjust and specifically take away some of the passing lanes he exploited last game. My Pass Mix analysis has him at just 11.3 expected assists for the series, 2.8 per game. My actual projection is a bit more bullish at 3.3 tonight, but still gives him a 58% chance to stay under 3.5. This is another prop where I’d guess almost all the action is on the over. KAT can absolutely clear 4+ again, but I’m betting regression shows up sooner than later.

The Knicks face off against the Hawks in a pivotal Game 5 at the Garden with this series tied up 2-2. KAT has been awesome during the Postseason - whenever he gets the touches that is. New York has continued to struggle getting him touches during this series; however, he saw a series high 46 touches in Game 4 where he put up a triple double on massive Usage. KAT almost took on a Sabonis-like role and used him to help run the offense from the high post and the nail. We have already waxed poetic about how good of a matchup this is for KAT and he has now cleared this line in 4 of 5 games this series but also in 5/6 this season against Atlanta. He can obviously go over on points alone but the assist upside is great to try and capture now.

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Running back the Knicks home 1h trend + escalator we circled before the series started: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/atlanta-hawks-vs-new-york-knicks-prediction-pick-odds-nba-playoffs-game-5-tuesday-april-28

IT’S 3PM SOMEWHERE!!

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

#EV 4.22% Pinny -121 BO -114

Am I trusting KAT *too much* this series? Lol...

@wheatonbrando ⭐️⭐️⭐️ https://myaction.app/y25z9PSZH2b