Tonight, we have a trio of Game 5s on the slate, but I will be focusing on the Eastern Conference. The Celtics will be looking to close out the 76ers for their third consecutive first round series victory in five games. Jayson Tatum will look to lead the way.
Meanwhile, the Hawks and Knicks will play a pivotal Game 5 back at Madison Square Garden. CJ McCollum has been a thorn for the Knicks all series, but Karl-Anthony Towns may have an answer.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Tuesday, April 28.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide: Tuesday, April 28
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NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for 76ers vs Celtics
The Angle: Embiid's Return Not Enough to Extend 76ers' Season
Jayson Tatum 25+ Points
Tatum continues to look better and better every game 11 months removed from his torn Achilles injury. In this series, he is averaging 24.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game. He has scored 25 points in three of the first games in this series and Game 4 was his best performance yet.
He finished with 30 points, seven rebounds, and 11 assists while shooting 8-for-16 from the field. He has scored 25 points in eight of his last 11 games against the 76ers while averaging 26.8 points per game. He has scored 30 points in four of those games.
After knocking down just three triples in Games 1 and 2, Tatum has made five 3s in each of the last two games. If he continues to stay hot from the perimeter, he should get to 25 points and more tonight.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 25+ Points
The Contrarian SGP: Embiid Overs, Celtics Spread
Joel Embiid 25+ Points
After initially being listed as doubtful on the injury report, Embiid was a late addition to the 76ers lineup. In his first game in 20 days, Embiid has 26 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists. He has now scored 25 points in nine of his last 10 games and in 26 of 39 games this season.
Compared to his usual dominance against most teams, the Celtics have been able to keep him in check to a degree in the regular season. However, he has scored 25 points in five of his last seven playoff games against the Celtics. He is listed as probable for tonight's game and when he is, the gameplan is usually to force-feed him the ball.
He has a 34.1% usage rate over his last 10 games and hit 40% on Sunday. That kind of usage should help to get to 25 points once again.
Pick: Joel Embiid 25+ Points
Celtics -11.5
The 76ers won Game 2 outright and Game 3 came down to the wire. Despite Embiid's return, the Celtics cruised to a 128-96 Game 4 victory. They have posted a +15.8 net rating in this series and have won seven of the last 10 meetings. Five of those victories have been by 16 points or more.
Additionally, the Celtics have had four opportunities to close out a Game 5 at home in the last two postseasons. They have won those games by 34, 15, 18, and 31 for an average margin of victory of 24 points. With the chance to lay down the hammer again look for the Celtics to take advantage.
Pick: Celtics -11.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+493)
- Jayson Tatum 25+ Points
- Joel Embiid 25+ Points
- Celtics -11.5
Compounding Angle (+1305)
- Jayson Tatum 30+ Points
- Joel Embiid 25+ Points
- Celtics -15.5
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Hawks vs Knicks
The Angle: KAT & Hart Help Knicks Stave Off Atlanta
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 24.5 Points + Assists
The Knicks' biggest advantage in this series is Towns against the Hawks' frontcourt. Even though Towns is not always assertive enough to take advantage of it, he is still averaging 21 points and 10.8 rebounds per game in this series. He has scored 20 points in three of the first four games.
Towns is also averaging five assists per game in this series. Most notably, he posted a triple-double in Game 4 with 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists. That game may be an outlier, but he also had four assists in Games 1 and 3. Jalen Brunson also left Game 4 briefly with an injury before returning to the game.
Brunson is expected to play tonight and he is not on the injury report. However, Mike Brown may have found something running the offense through Towns. Even if the assists aren't there tonight, Towns can clear this line with 25 points. He has done so in five of his last 11 games against the Hawks with 30 points in four of those games. That may also provide some value to his ladder as well.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 24.5 Points + Assists
Josh Hart Over 8.5 Rebounds
Given the attention paid to some of his teammates like Towns and Brunson, I thought Josh Hart's points would be in play in this series as someone the Hawks dared to shoot. He has scored in double-double figures in three of the first games, but he has done what he does best- aggressively attack the glass despite being undersized for his position.
Hart has recorded nine rebounds in each of the first four games in this series and is he averaging 11.3 rebounds per game in the series. In Games 1 and 2, he had 14 and 13 rebounds. He took advantage of his chances as he had 19 rebound chances in both games. He is averaging 17 rebound chances per game in the series and collecting at least half of them will help him clear his rebounds again.
Pick: Josh Hart Over 8.5 Rebounds
The Contrarian SGP: McCollum Points & Knicks Moneyline
CJ McCollum 20+ Points
A few players have made themselves villains in New York by defeating the Knicks in the playoffs. The Hawks had one themselves after Trae Young helped the Hawks defeat them in the first round a few seasons ago. After being traded for Young, McCollum may be joining the list himself.
In Game 4, McCollum had his worst game of the series thus far, but still finished with 17 points. He has scored 20 points in three of the first four games while averaging 24.5 points per game in the series. He returns to Madison Square where he scored 26 and 32 points in the first two games. He also made the game-winning basket in Game 2.
McCollum has a 32.2% usage rate in the series and he is shooting 51% from the field on 19 attempts per game. He did not make any of his four 3-point attempts on Saturday, which is part of the reason he landed under 20 points. He made nine in the first three games and if he gets a couple to fall tonight, he should go for 20 points or more again.
Pick: CJ McCollum 20+ Points
Knicks Moneyline
The Knicks may feel like they should be up 3-1 in this series as they blew a 14-point second half lead in Game 2. They did get the chance to redeem themselves on their home floor tonight. I did not expect the Hawks to be a pushover in this series, but I did like the Knicks to win in six games.
The Knicks have been the better team in this series as they have a +6.2 net rating through the first four games. If they are going to close this series out in six games, they have to win tonight's game. Brunson being good to go along with a big game from Towns should help them get there.
Pick: Knicks Moneyline
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+596)
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 24.5 Points + Assists
- CJ McCollum 20+ Points
- Josh Hart Over 8.5 Rebounds
- Knicks Moneyline
Compounding Angle (+4110)
- Karl-Anthony Towns 30+ Points + Assists
- CJ McCollum 25+ Points
- Josh Hart Over 12+ Rebounds
- Knicks Moneyline
