The Denver Nuggets (21-7) and Dallas Mavericks (11-19) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EST from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Nuggets are 7.5-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Nuggets -7.5), with the over/under set at 237.5 total points. Denver is a -280 to win outright on the moneyline, while Dallas is +230 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, December 23.
Nuggets vs Mavericks Prediction, Picks
- Nuggets vs Mavericks pick: Nuggets -6.5 (-110)
My Mavericks vs Nuggets best bet is on Denver to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Nuggets vs Mavericks Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 237.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 237.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
Nuggets vs Mavericks NBA Preview
I love the spot for the Nuggets here. Denver jumped out early in their last game against the Jazz, opening with a dominant start and building a 20-point lead that they maintained for virtually the entire game.
As a result, Denver was able to play on cruise control and rest some key players late in the fourth quarter.
Despite being on the second night of a back-to-back, the Nuggets historically play their core players in these situations. Nikola Jokic, in particular, rarely sits. Jokic almost always plays in these spots and does not regularly rest games.
That contrasts sharply with the Mavericks’ situation. Dallas played in a dog fight of a game with very high paceand physical running both ways against the Pelicans,
Entering that matchup, Cooper Flagg and Klay Thompson were both listed as questionable but ultimately played, while Anthony Davis was active on the first night of a back-to-back.
It is unclear whether Davis will play the second night, and there is similar uncertainty surrounding Flagg and Thompson.
Because of that, the injury report is going to be critical late. There is a major asymmetry here.
If all of Dallas’ key players are active, this line could close closer to Nuggets -6. However, if Anthony Davis or Cooper Flagg ends up sidelined, this spread could easily move to Nuggets -12.5.
That potential movement is why backing the Nuggets at this number makes sense. Any line movement is more likely to go further in Denver’s direction.
Nuggets vs Mavericks Prediction, Betting Analysis
There is no guarantee that Davis plays on the back-to-back, and there is also uncertainty around Flagg and Thompson, especially with Dallas facing Golden State on Christmas.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets will be at home against Timberwolves.
This ultimately shapes up as an injury asymmetry bet.
I think the Nuggets will play their guys and I can't say the same for the Mavericks here.
Pick: Nuggets -6.5 (-110)
