Lakers vs. Suns, Nets vs. 76ers NBA Predictions: Picks on Inefficient Lines (Tuesday, Nov. 22)
Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Deandre Ayton #22 of the Phoenix Suns.
Lakers vs. Suns and Nets vs. 76ers on Tuesday night both have inefficient lines with value.
For Nets vs. 76ers (7:30 p.m. ET), the algorithm indicates a value pick on the spread.
For Lakers vs. Suns, there’s a betting model that has gone 382-286-8 since 2005. That’s a 57% win rate since “Let Me Love You” by Mario topped the charts. The algorithm’s 12% return on investment is even better.
The model’s parameters factor in public action, line movement and more to pick which games to target.
If you had bet $100 on each game that has fit the betting trend since 2005, you’d be up about $7,850. That’s roughly $475 per year.
And this is across a substantial sample size: 650 or so games over the past 17 seasons.
We don’t recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is much less forgiving in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to profits over a long time horizon.
Lakers vs. Suns, Nets vs. 76ers Inefficient Line Prediction
The betting system for Lakers vs. Suns targets the under in division games when sharp action has moved the total downward.
In other words, the under has lost value because sharps have been betting it in droves.
The last parameter requires the number of bets to be 40% or less on the under. That indicates you’re fading the public, which typically ride with overs because they’re more fun to root for.
For Lakers vs. Suns, all signs point toward the under at a market-best price of under 227 points (-107) at PointsBet.
Do keep in mind that this historically profitable algorithm applies to about 40 NBA games per year. This might be an opportunity to cash in, but keep in mind that this is a long-term investment.
The best way to make money through this algorithm is to bet on every game that fits these parameters for the rest of the year.
We’ll continue to write about them.
Meanwhile, for Nets vs. 76ers, our proprietary betting models think Philly’s spread should be closer to +6. But the best price on the market is with Caesars at +8 (-110).
That represents a roughly 5% betting edge. Effectively, you’re receiving a 5% discount on that line.
PRO Picks: Under 227 (-107) or better (Lakers vs. Suns) | 76ers +8 (-110) or better