We have an excellent NBA slate on tap today — and our NBA betting expert Prop Bomb has locked in his top player prop bet for tonight's matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers.
Let's dive into our NBA prop bet for Zach Edey in Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers on Thursday, October 29.
NBA Prop Bet for Thursday, October 29
- Zach Edey Under 8.5 Rebounds (-138)
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Zach Edey Under 8.5 Rebounds (-138)
After playing just 11 games last season, Zach Edey has returned to the Grizzlies’ starting lineup, but his role on the glass looks different.
Memphis now has Cam Boozer (instead of Jaren Jackson Jr.) and Cedric Coward crashing the defensive boards, and Edey is splitting rebounds he used to own.
Edey now heads to Portland to face the best rebounding frontcourt he’s seen all season, and I’m eyeing him to go under his rebounding total.
This former Purdue big man averaged 11.1 rebounds last season, and the books are still pricing him close to that mark. However, I always weigh the matchup over the reputation, and this one doesn’t suit him.
Portland has won the glass in all three of its games — by 24 against Phoenix, by eight against Sacramento, and by 20 against the Lakers.
Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams have combined for 17, 17, and 20 boards in those games while splitting about 40 minutes at center.
The centers on the other side haven’t had much success. Walker Kessler played 32 minutes in Portland on Tuesday and finished with eight rebounds; just two of them offensive. Khaman Maluach managed six in 16 minutes.
The only big who got through was Domantas Sabonis, the league’s best rebounder, and it took him 38 minutes to grab 19.
Edey won’t get anywhere near 38 minutes. He’s played 21, 22 and 20 this season while picking up three, two, and five fouls — and he averaged 3.4 fouls per game a year ago.
Portland’s backcourt now runs through Ja Morant and Deni Avdija, two guards who make their living getting downhill. With Edey sitting in drop coverage, every one of those drives forces him to step up at the rim, and Portland closed its last game with Williams to switch more and pull bigs away from the basket.
Even in his minutes, Edey isn’t cleaning up the defensive glass like he used to. In his three games, Boozer grabbed 10, 11 and 7 defensive rebounds and Coward added 7 and 10, while Edey’s defensive totals were 6, 6 and 2.
That leaves Edey leaning on offensive rebounds, the most volatile part of any rebound line — and the part Clingan and Williams take away best.
Edey's good games this season came against Utah’s Hayes and a small Golden State lineup that gave him room inside. The one time he saw a true defensive big in Jaren Jackson Jr., he finished with 3 rebounds and 5 fouls in 20 minutes.
As for the past, In his last meeting with Portland, Edey grabbed 10 boards, but Clingan didn’t play and he was matched up against rookie Yang Hansen and Duop Reath.
At roughly 21 minutes and his current pace of about 0.35 rebounds per minute, I’m projecting Edey around 7 to 7.5 rebounds with some foul risk.
The market has already moved toward the under, from -128 to -138, and I’m buying that it won’t be easy for him to stat-stuff against a frontcourt this big.
