Mavericks vs. Wizards Betting Odds and Picks: No Rest? No Problem

Mavericks vs. Wizards Odds

After a tough loss to the Magic, in which Luka Doncic struggled, the Mavericks will attempt to get back to their winning ways in the nation's capital on the second night of a back-to-back.

With Washington down its best player, is there a path to victory for the home side? Will Dallas right the ship? Let's answer these questions below.

Dallas Mavericks

Let's start with the pertinent news here, which is that Christian Wood won't play due to a left knee sprain, joining Davis Bertans on the sideline. Tim Hardaway Jr. will likely play again after being active on the front end of this back-to-back.

How does all that impact Dallas? Well, the Mavericks are +7.4 per 100 possessions with Wood on the floor, according to NBA.com, and +2.2 per 100 with him off. The biggest impact can be found on offense, where the Mavericks have been nearly eight points per 100 better with Wood. He has dominated on the second unit and has been a key to Dallas' hot streak.

It's hard to talk about key factors without mentioning Doncic. He clearly didn't have it on Wednesday night, going just 2-for-11 from three and 9-for-29 from the field for 24 points. Spencer Dinwiddie did well to pick him up with 29 points on 9-of-19 shooting, but the Mavericks ultimately fell flat. They are still looking for ways to win when Doncic doesn't go off, which he's been doing on a consistent basis lately.

I also want to point out that the Mavericks are perfectly mediocre when it comes to performing on the second night of a back-to-back under Jason Kidd. They're 6-6-1 against the spread in these situations with the one push coming earlier this year in a nine-point win over the Magic.

Washington Wizards

When handed a rest advantage, such as the one they'll receive Thursday, the Wizards have failed to capitalize. Since Wes Unseld Jr. took over in 2021, they're just 6-14-1 against the spread in said games.

So, you might say Washington is at a disadvantage on Thursday. You'd certainly say that when you take a glance at the injury report, which has Bradley Beal listed as out due to the league's health and safety protocols. Taj Gibson is listed as questionable, though it's unlikely that will make a big difference given he's played 4.5 minutes on average in his six contests this year.

Washington is coming off a win over the Hornets as two-point underdogs which pushed its record to 5-6 overall and against the spread. As it stands, the Wizards are 21st in defensive efficiency and 24th on offense, excelling only in rebounding the ball, where they are ranked a modest 13th.

While they've struggled defensively, they do rank third in defended field goal percentage inside of 10 feet at just 52.3%. As we'll get to in a second, that's not going to do them a whole lot of good.

Mavericks-Wizards Pick

Why, you may ask? Well, the Mavericks are scoring 34.8% of their points from three, which ranks 10th in the league. While they don't have Wood, Hardaway's presence on the court has seen them score 35.1% of their points from downtown.

Dallas feasts from three and is running into a team allowing 38.2% shooting from three on contested looks, the third-worst mark in the NBA.

So, while I'd love to be contrarian here and take the home side as short underdogs in what appears to be a trap spot, the matchup simply isn't very good for the Wizards. Even without Wood, this horrible three-point defense should be ambushed by the Mavericks, who have at least been competent on the second night of back-to-backs under Kidd. The Wizards, on the other hand, have been at their very worst under Unseld when playing with a rest advantage.

Pick: Mavericks -3

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