NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen Ooze Value in Cavaliers vs. Warriors (November 11)
Brian Sevald/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Evan Mobley #4 of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Jarrett Allen | Evan Mobley
|Prop||Allen First Basket (+500) | Mobley Exact Method "Other" (+1600)|
|Matchup||Cavaliers vs. Warriors|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
The Golden State Warriors will host the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday night at Chase Center. Kevon Looney (33% opening-tip win rate) will likely be jumping at center against Jarrett Allen (67% win rate). The two centers have faced off against each other twice in the past two seasons, with Allen winning the tip both times.
The Cavs were great last year at scoring first (56% success rate), but they have been much less successful this season (36% success rate). They continue to win the tip frequently, but they are averaging 2.5 field goal attempts to make their first field goal this season.
The Warriors meanwhile, were pretty bad last season at scoring first (40% success rate), but they have been trended up this season (55% success rate). The Warriors are winning the tip less than 30% of the time this season but they are averaging a league best 1.4 field goal attempts to make their first field goal this season.
I'm pretty confident that the Cavs will win the tip tonight. I think the best match-up on the court for the Cavs is Allen vs Looney. The Warriors have allowed the opposing team center or power forward to score the first field goal in eight of 11 games this season. This is even more concentrated than last season when the opposing center or power forward scored the first team field goal 51% of the time against the Warriors.
I like Jarrett Allen to score first for the Cavs tonight, but I'm also going to play Evan Mobley Exact Method "Other" prop. I don't like playing both of these guys for straight first baskets because there is little value in doing so. The exact method bet allows us to lower our risk and retain value in the combined plays.
The Picks: Jarrett Allen (+500, 0.7 units) — Play down to +400 | Evan Mobley, Exact Method "Other" (+1600, 0.3u)
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Cavaliers vs. Warriors First Basket Data
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