NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Picks: Bet Santi Aldama and LeBron James on Sunday (November 6th)
Via Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Santi Aldama #7 of the Memphis Grizzlies goes to the basket against Ben Simmons #10 of the Brooklyn Nets during the game at FedExForum on October 24, 2022 in Memphis, Tennessee.
- The NBA has a modest four-game slate on Sunday, but there is still prop value to be found.
- Our expert is eying two unders, including a play on Santi Aldama's points prop.
- Check out Tyler Schmidt's picks and analysis below.
Sundays are heavy NFL days, but don’t forget that there are four games on the NBA schedule today. After winning our two bets last night, we’ll look to do the same tonight. We may have won all three, but Rudy Gobert got ruled out.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
LeBron James, Under 7.5 Assists (-145)
|Lakers vs. Cavaliers||Cavaliers -4|
|Time | TV||3:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
After back-to-back wins, the Los Angeles Lakers lost by double-digits at home against the Utah Jazz last game. They are now four-point home underdogs against one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers are 7-1 this season and have the second-best Defensive Rating (103.3) entering today.
In his 20th season in the league, LeBron James continues to beat Father Time. He has increased his peripherals more than last year while decreasing his scoring production. However, with a 2-6 record, James may need to get more aggressive to keep this Lakers team afloat, which will bring down his assists.
Our model has James projected for only six assists in this brutal matchup against the Cavaliers, who allow 22.3 assists per game, which ranks as the fifth-best in the league. This defense has only allowed 103.3 points per 100 possessions, and the Lakers are projected for 109.25 points. It’s a tough spot for King James and the Lakers.
Make sure to shop for the best value that you feel comfortable with on this bet. There are several books that have this line at 6.5 with a ton of juice on the under. If you are feeling risky, you could get this prop at +120 on FanDuel for James to have under 6.5 assists. However risky you want to be, I love this bet.
Santi Aldama, Under 10.5 Points (-125)
|Grizzlies vs. Wizards||Grizzlies -10.5|
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Memphis Grizzlies have won two games in a row and are double-digit home favorites against the Washington Wizards, who have lost four of their last five games. Now that they are fully healthy, the Usage Rate for this Grizzlies offense has been dispersed evenly, and Santi Aldama isn’t a key option.
With a 14.4% Usage Rate that ranks 10th on the team, Aldama getting over this points prop will be extremely difficult. Despite starting, Aldama is still only averaging 10.1 points per game. He did most of his damage when Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and especially Dillon Brooks all missed action.
Our model has Aldama only projected for only 7.8 points in this matchup against the Wizards, which is well below this prop line. On the main three-game slate, this under prop bet is the best option. There are a few other Aldama under props to pick from, but I like the points with his low Usage Rate.
This game has a slate-high 225.5 total as the Grizzlies are implied for 118 points. This is quite a high total when the Wizards play at the fifth-slowest Pace in the league. Even if the Grizzlies put up a ton of points, it is hard to see Aldama getting over this prop playing alongside such high-usage guards on his team.