NBA Player Prop & Pick: Bet Josh Giddey in Thunder vs. Suns (March 8)

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Amid a playoff push where every game matters, the Thunder will be without their two leading scorers in a matchup in the Valley of the Sun. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams will miss tonight’s game, leaving Josh Giddey to be the leader on offense.

Even with a more significant role, I am looking to fade the second-year pro’s points line tonight. For starters, his underlying metrics do not show a real change in this situation. In a 354.4-minute sample size with both SGA and J-Dub off the court this season, Giddey is averaging 16.9 points per 36 Min, according to CourtIQ.

Additionally, in the 13 games where SGA was out last season (Williams is a rookie and was not in the NBA then), Giddey averaged 16.4 points per game, failing to cover his current points prop in 10 of the 13 games.

On the matchup side, this is an extremely tough spot. He will face a Phoenix Suns defense permitting the second-fewest points on shots within 10 feet of the basket (38.4) over the last 10 games. The Australian profiles by taking 62.4% of his shots in the paint and shoots a below-average 37.5% from the field on jump shots when he cannot drive to the rim.

Additionally, since Kevin Durant entered their rotation, the Suns are allowing the second-fewest points per game and are among the top 10 in Defensive Rating.

And not to mention, this will be Durant’s first home game with his new team playing on two days of rest. The Thunder are on a back-to-back and are at a considerable risk of a blowout with a 13.5-point spread.

Overall, this is a high line for the sophomore in a brutal matchup. I would play this line up to -130 as my threshold.

Pick: Josh Giddey Under 18.5 Points

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