Promotion Banner

NBA Player Prop & Pick: Bet Josh Giddey in Thunder vs. Suns (March 8)

NBA Player Prop & Pick: Bet Josh Giddey in Thunder vs. Suns (March 8) article feature image

Via Alex Goodlett/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Giddey #3 of the Oklahoma City Thunder in action during a game against the Utah Jazz at Vivint Arena on February 28, 2023 in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Prop Bomb will be contributing to Action Network’s NBA coverage this season, also tracking all his bets in the Action Network app. Follow him on Twitter.

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Prop Josh Giddey Under 18.5 Points (+100)
Matchup Thunder vs. Suns
Time 9 p.m. ET
Best Book BetMGM

Amid a playoff push where every game matters, the Thunder will be without their two leading scorers in a matchup in the Valley of the Sun. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams will miss tonight’s game, leaving Josh Giddey to be the leader on offense.

Even with a more significant role, I am looking to fade the second-year pro’s points line tonight. For starters, his underlying metrics do not show a real change in this situation. In a 354.4-minute sample size with both SGA and J-Dub off the court this season, Giddey is averaging 16.9 points per 36 Min, according to CourtIQ.

Additionally, in the 13 games where SGA was out last season (Williams is a rookie and was not in the NBA then), Giddey averaged 16.4 points per game, failing to cover his current points prop in 10 of the 13 games.

On the matchup side, this is an extremely tough spot. He will face a Phoenix Suns defense permitting the second-fewest points on shots within 10 feet of the basket (38.4) over the last 10 games. The Australian profiles by taking 62.4% of his shots in the paint and shoots a below-average 37.5% from the field on jump shots when he cannot drive to the rim.

Additionally, since Kevin Durant entered their rotation, the Suns are allowing the second-fewest points per game and are among the top 10 in Defensive Rating.

And not to mention, this will be Durant’s first home game with his new team playing on two days of rest. The Thunder are on a back-to-back and are at a considerable risk of a blowout with a 13.5-point spread.

Overall, this is a high line for the sophomore in a brutal matchup. I would play this line up to -130 as my threshold.

Pick: Josh Giddey Under 18.5 Points

The must-have app for NBA bettors

The best NBA betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.