The NBA playoffs resume this Monday, as two crucial Game 1s take center stage tonight — and our NBA betting expert Joe Dellera has identified player prop picks showing significant value in both of today's contests.
Let's get into the breakdown of his top NBA player props for Josh Hart and Julius Randle on Monday, May 4.
NBA Player Props: Friday, May 1
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
76ers vs. Knicks Player Prop Bet
Josh Hart Over 12.5 Rebounds & Assists (-130)
I’m going with a classic for Game 1 tonight: Josh Hart Rebounds + Assists. Look, it’s not a surprise here. If you’ve followed my analysis, you know I love Hart’s hustle, and in this spot, I’m just combining the two facets of his game that I like the most.
The numbers against Philadelphia are staggering. Hart has gone over this 12.5 mark in all three games against the 76ers this season. If you want to zoom out even further, he has hit this over in 15 of his last 17 games against Philly.
This isn't just a hot streak; it’s a systematic mismatch. Hart simply knows how to navigate matchups against the Sixers, finding the ball on the glass and finding his teammates in transition. I don’t know exactly why he does it, but he just gets after it against this Philly team.
I’m surprised we’re even seeing this line at 12.5 in the market. Earlier this season against this exact 76ers roster, Hart’s closing lines for this prop were 13.5, 13.5, and even 14.5. So, we are getting a nice discount here compared to where the market usually sits for this matchup.
So, why is the line so low? It was likely suppressed because his assist and rebound numbers dipped a bit at the back end of that Atlanta series. But let’s be real—that was the Hawks, and this is a brand-new series. The schematic challenges Philadelphia presents are totally different.
New series, new matchup, and the historical data tells us that 12.5 is just too light for Hart in this spot.
Pick: Josh Hart Over 12.5 Rebounds & Assists (-130)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Player Prop Bet
Julius Randle Under 20.5 Points (-115)
I think Julius Randle has the ability to get into the teeth of the Spurs' defense, but I’m just not convinced he’s going to be efficient once he gets there. Finishing and scoring the basketball against this specific San Antonio frontcourt is a tall task, and I don't see him being productive enough to clear a number this high.
The biggest factor here is the status of Anthony Edwards. It sounds like Ant might actually play tonight, and if he’s on the floor, the ball is naturally going to be out of Randle’s hands a lot more often.
But even in the scenarios where Ant has been sidelined, we haven't seen Randle just absorb an overwhelming amount of that missing usage. It tends to get skewed toward a couple of other players as well, so the idea that Randle just becomes a high-volume scoring machine without Ant doesn't totally hold up in the data.
The "Wemby Factor" is real here. If you look back at the season, you might see that Randle dropped 22 on the Spurs back in November and think he may be in for a big night. But, Wembanyama didn't play in that game.
In the two matchups this season where Victor was on the court, Randle finished with just 15 and 17 points. He played significant minutes in both of those spots, but the efficiency just wasn't there. Trying to score over or around that kind of length is clearly a struggle for him.
There’s also the blowout risk to consider. If this game gets one-sided, Randle isn't exactly the guy they’re going to keep on the floor to grind through garbage time. He’ll get pulled early, and your window to hit the over disappears.
Pick: Julius Randle Under 20.5 Points (-115)
