The Knicks advanced to the NBA Finals last night, but they will have to wait a few days for their opponent. The Spurs and Thunder are set for at least two more after the Spurs cruised to a 103-82 victory in Game 4. The Thunder were without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell on Sunday and they will be without at least Mitchell tonight as Williams remains questionable.
Without both of them, the Thunder are just 11-10 this season and more ball-handling responsibilities are placed on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Regardless of whether they play or not, the Thunder will figure out to slow down Victor Wembanyama.
Continue below for my NBA same game parlay for Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 on Tuesday, May 26.
NBA Same Game Parlay for Spurs vs Thunder Game 5
The Angle: MVP Candidates Perform in Defensive Duel
Victor Wembanyama 25+ Points
While Wembanyama likely had it out for Chet Holmgren, given their history, he also finished third behind SGA in MVP. So he entered this series highly motivated, in addition to his team being four wins away from the NBA Finals. He immediately set the tone in Game 1 with 41 points and 24 rebounds as the Spurs won in double overtime.
While the Thunder have managed to limit his impact on the glass to a degree over the last two games, he still has scored 25 points in three of the first four games in this series.
He is averaging 30.3 points per game and has two 30-point games in the series. With 33 points in Game 4, he may have gotten up to 40 again if he had played more in the fourth quarter.
Wembanyama is averaging 39.1 minutes per game and 19.5 field goal attempts in this series. He also has a 29.7% usage rate and nearly got up to 40% in Game 4.
That kind of volume should help him get 25-30 points once again.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama 25+ Points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 Assists
Through the first three games of the series, SGA had recorded at least nine assists in every game. On Sunday, he was on pace to get there again as he had seven assists through three quarters.
However, his usual rotation is to exit the game for the start of the fourth quarter, but the Thunder could not make a substantial dent in the Spurs' lead and he did not play at all in the fourth.
Gilgeous-Alexander likely gets one more assist if he plays five to six minutes in the fourth quarter, but I am going back to this play for a few more reasons.
He had 16 potential assists for the third time in four games. The first three games produced 12, nine, and 12 assists. However, he did not get the one more assist he needed because the Thunder shot 33% as a team.
As you will see later on, I do like the under tonight. However, the Thunder figure to have some positive shooting regression, particularly playing at home.
That, combined with the Spurs doubling him, should lead to one more assist and potentially reaching his value lines again as well.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 Assists
Devin Vassell Over 12.5 Points
With two more 3s in Game 4, Devin Vassell has now made 14 triples in the series. He has made two or more 3s in nine of his last 10 playoff games. That has helped him score in double digits in each of those games, as well as all 15 games for him this postseason.
Vassell is averaging 13.7 points per game in the playoffs, but the margin for him is slim. He has only scored 20 points twice (both in this series), but he has been between 10 and 14 points nine times.
If you are solely going for the hit rate, you can go safer and drop him to 10 points, which has a 100% hit rate in the playoffs.
However, we can extract a little more value by taking him for 13 points. He has scored 13 points in all four games this series and in seven of his last 10 games, still giving us a 70% hit rate at -160 odds.
Pick: Devin Vassell Over 12.5 Points
The Contrarian SGP: Player Prop Overs + Under 220.5
Under 220.5
The first eight meetings between these teams all had at least 217 points and five of those games went over. I backed the over in Game 3, but laid off in Game 4, which proved to be a better decision than I realized.
The game soared under and finished with 185 points as the Thunder scored their fewest points in a game since 2014, which also was against San Antonio.
These teams are elite defensively and have now seen each other for four games.
However, even going back home, the Thunder have some questions to answer without potentially two of their shot creators in Williams and Mitchell. They also have not gotten much from Holmgren in this series.
The total has been 218.5 or 219.5 in three games and has dropped to 217.5 tonight.
Due to the value of the first three legs, negative correlation still provides us with a substantial boost to the odds with an alternative total and buys us a little cushion. Four of the meetings this season have finished with 220 points or less.
Pick: Under 220.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+750)
- Victor Wembanyama 25+ Points
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 Assists
- Devin Vassell Over 12.5 Points
- Under 220.5
Compounding Angle (+2351)
- Victor Wembanyama 30+ Points
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 10+ Assists
- Devin Vassell Over 12.5 Points
- Under 220.5
