Saturday’s Best NBA Player Props: Is Chris Paul Overvalued as a Scorer?
Pictured: Thunder PG Chris Paul (3), Photo Credit: Sean Gardner-Getty Images
- Saturday's four-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Bulls PG Tomas Satoransky, Thunder PG Chris Paul, and 76ers PF/C Al Horford
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Saturday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s four games:
- Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers: 8 p.m. ET
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves: 8 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers: 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Let’s dive in.
Bulls PG Tomas Satoransky
THE PICK: Under 10 points (-114)
Satoransky is starting at PG for the Bulls, but they’re playing a pretty balanced rotation at the position. He has to share the ball handling responsibilities with Kris Dunn — who is also starting for the Bulls — and Coby White, Ryan Arcidiacono, and Shaquille Harrison are all seeing minutes off the bench. Overall, Satoransky has played 25.6 minutes or fewer in each of his past three games.
Satoransky is not someone who typically commands a big usage rate, so he’s going to struggle to score double-digit points in limited playing time. He’s recorded eight points or fewer in each of his past five games.
I have no problem fading Satoransky, even in a good matchup vs. the Cavaliers. I like the under up to -130.
Thunder PG Chris Paul
THE PICK: Under 19.5 points (-130)
The Thunder are going to be pretty shorthanded today. Abdel Nader and Terrence Ferguson remain out while Danilo Gallinari will get the night off as well.
That sounds like a good thing for Paul, his usage rate his remained pretty steady with Gallinari off the court this season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder are the bigger candidates to see a bump in scoring, while Paul should continue to provide balanced production across the board.
This line seems a bit inflated. Paul has scored 19 points or fewer in seven of his past nine games, so I’d play this prop up to -140.
76ers PF/C Al Horford
THE PICK: Over 6.5 rebounds (-114)
Horford should benefit from the 76ers current injury situation. Joel Embiid remains out with a hand injury, and Josh Richardson will join him on the sidelines for today’s contest vs. the Lakers. Horford has increased his rebound rate with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 8.4 rebounds per 36 minutes. He’s coming off 36.3 minutes in his last game, so this line seems a bit low.
The Lakers are not a particularly imposing team on the glass, so I’d play this prop up to -125.