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NCAAB Odds, Best Bets: 6 Top Picks for Kansas State vs. Kansas & More

NCAAB Odds, Best Bets: 6 Top Picks for Kansas State vs. Kansas & More article feature image

Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images. Pictured: Keyontae Johnson (Kansas State)

Monday featured the drama of Iowa State blowing a 20+ point lead vs. Texas Tech, but we have an even bigger Big 12 matchup on Tuesday.

Kansas State travels to Lawrence to take on Kansas in a top-10 duel.

However, that’s not all we’re looking forward to on Tuesday.

Our staff has six total best bets for tonight’s slate, giving you a plethora of betting value to help formulate your college basketball card.

Dive in below and get the top college basketball odds and picks for Tuesday’s slate.

Tuesday’s 6 College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from Tuesday’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

8 p.m. ET
Kansas State +8.5
8 p.m. ET
Kansas State +8.5
8 p.m. ET
Under 146
9 p.m. ET
West Virginia +2.5
9 p.m. ET
Indiana +3
9 p.m. ET
Indiana +3
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Kansas State vs. Kansas

Tuesday, Jan. 31
8 p.m. ET
Kansas State +8.5

By Brett Pund

Kansas State won the first matchup of the Sunflower Showdown at home, and I feel the bookmakers are giving Kansas too many points in the rematch.

For one, this is a more difficult scheduling spot for the Jayhawks after they had to travel to Rupp Arena to take on Kentucky on Saturday night.

I would expect head coach Bill Self to have his team up for this rivalry game, but you know the Jayhawks already had to get up to beat the SEC program.

Another reason for this bet is how Kansas has played at home in conference play. In the four contests at Allen Fieldhouse, Self’s squad failed to cover this number in all four, with an average margin of victory of just 2.67.

This also includes a TCU team coming in and beating the Jayhawks by 23 points in their last home game.

Meanwhile, Kansas State has victories on the road at Texas and Baylor in Big 12 play, so it’s proven it can play well away from home.

In the first matchup, Kansas closed as a -1.5 favorite, which makes you wonder what’s causing this big change after Kansas State won that game. It’s just too many points for me.

Pick: Kansas State +8.5 (Play to +7.5)

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Kansas State +8.5

By Cooper Van Tatenhove

Kansas State and Kansas will meet in a rematch of one of the most entertaining games in the Big 12 so far this season. In their first meeting, the Wildcats were able to outlast the Jayhawks, 83-82, in overtime.

This loss sparked an uncharacteristic three-game losing streak for Self and the Jayhawks that included losses to TCU and Baylor.

This Saturday, the Jayhawks were able to get back on the winning side in Lexington against a Kentucky team that has had its ups and downs this season. Kansas was led by junior Jalen Wilson, who scored a game-high 22 points on 9-of-18 shooting.

Although this is a great spot to back a Jayhawks team looking for revenge at Allen Fieldhouse, I believe this number has gotten too high considering what Kansas State brings to the table.

On the offensive end, Kansas State is able to score 65.5% of its shots off an assist, the sixth-highest rate in the country. This ability to create in the open floor and half-court is critical when facing a Jayhawks defense that is limiting its opponents to 47.6% of their baskets off an assist.

The one area this Wildcats team has struggled offensively is from the 3-point line. As a result, the Wildcats score just 28% of their points from beyond the arc, which is 273rd nationally.

However, this is also an area Kansas has struggled in defensively in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks are allowing teams to shoot 36.1% from deep (10th in the Big 12).

In the first matchup, the Wildcats were able to connect on seven of their 17 total 3-point attempts.

Additionally, Kansas State has thrived on its ability to get to the free-throw line, scoring 20.6% of its points from the charity stripe. This is an area the Wildcats can expose a Kansas defense that is allowing 20% of its opponents’ points to come from this range.

A Jayhawks team that lost Zuby Ejiofor to a foot injury and has Kevin McCullar Jr. practicing through an ankle injury can’t afford to get into foul trouble.

Overall, I’m happy to back Kansas State to cover a spread that has ballooned to over two possessions against a Kansas team that has won just one game by double digits in Big 12 play.

Pick: Kansas State +8.5 (Play to +8)

Under 146

By Patrick Strollo

The No. 8 Kansas Jayhawks host the No. 7 Kansas State Wildcats in a battle for hegemony in the Big 12 and the Sunflower State.

Tonight’s high-stakes matchup will be the 10th duel when both teams are ranked in the top 10 and the first top-10 matchup between the two since the 2010 Big 12 Championship.

Both teams last met on Jan. 17 in a game that saw Kansas State defeat Kansas in overtime, 83-82. Had the game not gone to overtime, the final total would have been 144.

I think taking the under is the angle here, as both teams will have a better feel for what to expect tonight.

The Wildcats were lethal from downtown in that victory, connecting on 41.2% of attempts from deep. The Jayhawks will look to contest the deep ball more effectively in this game.

We should see a mean reversion from beyond the arc for a Wildcat team that has a season average of 35.5% from 3-point land.

Both teams play at a moderate tempo, with each program averaging 68 possessions per game. Kansas and Kansas State rank 121st and 82nd in Adjusted Tempo, respectively. This should allow the Kansas defense to gain traction on its home court.

Look for redshirt senior McCullar to be a difference maker for the Jayhawks on defense. McCullar leads the Big 12 in steals (2.5), which ranks ninth in the nation. He had just one steal in the previous meeting, but I expect him to have a stronger performance tonight.

Expect both teams to have a better grasp on each other this time around after the high-scoring, feeling-out game that took place in Manhattan.

I like the Kansas defense to make a stand at home as the Jayhawks look to even out the season series.

I am projecting the total for this game at 140.5, and I recommend playing the under at 144 or higher.

West Virginia vs. TCU

Tuesday, Jan. 31
9 p.m. ET
West Virginia +2.5

By Stuckey

I know TCU has revenge on its mind after a loss in Morgantown to these Mountaineers earlier in the season.

I also am aware TCU is coming off of a loss, so it’s not the best spot on the surface.

However, I’m willing to back the road dog here and fade a TCU team that I believe will be lost without star guard Mike Miles.

Miles is just so important to the Horned Frogs’ transition offense, which is the deadliest in the country. He’s the engine that makes the entire car go and also takes all of the biggest shots in the clutch.

It will take some time for the Frogs to adjust to life without him.

Meanwhile, West Virginia is playing great basketball of late and is due for some positive shooting regression in league play.

It should also dominate the offensive glass in this particular matchup.

Indiana vs. Maryland

Tuesday, Jan. 31
9 p.m. ET
Indiana +3

By BJ Cunningham

The Hoosiers are hot right now — winners of four straight — and this is a fantastic matchup for them.

Ever since Indiana got Trayce Jackson-Davis back from injury, it’s been attacking the rim at an elite level. The Hoosiers are putting up 1.30 PPP and are shooting 65% on shot attempts at the rim, which is a top-35 mark in the country.

During Big Ten play, Maryland is 13th in FG% allowed at the rim.

Indiana is also one of the higher-frequency transition teams in the Big Ten, which will work out well against Maryland. The Terps are second-to-last during conference play in PPP allowed in transition.

On top of that, Indiana is putting up 0.99 PPP in the half-court during conference play while Maryland is 10th defensively.

During Big Ten play, Maryland is 13th in effective field goal percentage and is shooting under 32% from behind the arc. The Terrapins are one of the highest-frequency teams in the country running pick-and-roll, and it’s second in the Big Ten in PPP in pick-and-roll.

Meanwhile, Indiana is pretty average at defending PnR sets, so that will be the Terps’ best path to success offensively. However, the Terps are not finishing at the rim at a high level, and like I already mentioned, they’re struggling shooting from deep, so that means they will be forced into a lot of mid-range jumpers.

During conference play, Indiana owns a +6.6 adjusted efficiency differential while Maryland is at -2.5. I really don’t think Indiana should be an underdog, so I like the value of +2.5.

Pick: Indiana +3 (Play to +1)

Indiana +3

By Mike McNamara

I get that the XFINITY Center will be absolutely rocking tonight, but I still think the wrong team is favored here.

Maryland enters its final leg of a three-game home stand after dominating both Wisconsin and Nebraska over the last week.

The Terps are playing good basketball right now, but the Hoosiers are on another level.

Indiana has won five in a row, with only one of those games being decided by single digits.

The biggest reason for the uptick in IU’s play? A commitment to the defensive end of the floor.

That defense should travel to College Park on Tuesday night, and the Hoosiers also have a big advantage on the interior in this one.

Maryland doesn’t really have anybody that can cover Jackson-Davis one-on-one on the block, which should lead to plenty of kick-out, catch-and-shoot opportunities for guys like Miller Kopp and Trey Galloway.

I like the Hoosiers’ chances of securing the road victory and moving their winning streak to six games, so I will gladly back them as short underdogs in this one.

Pick: Indiana +3 (Play to +2)

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