CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Depaul-St. John’s, 2 Other Wednesday Games
St. John’s Red Storm forward Marvin Clark II. Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on three conference tournament games on Wednesday, headlined by Depaul-St. John's (9:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1).
- Sharps are also betting Stanford-UCLA (9 p.m. ET on PAC 12 Network) and Northwestern-Illinois (9 p,m. ET on Big Ten Network).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys posted their second straight winning day on Tuesday, cashing two of their three conference tourney plays (Pittsburgh spread and App-State Over). With postseason games on tap all day, sharps will look to pick their spots and keep the good times rolling. Fearless but disciplined, always.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Stanford vs. UCLA
9 p.m. ET | PAC 12 Network
Sharp angle: Under (line freeze at 151.5)
In order to make a smart bet, you need to answer two important questions: Where is the public? And where are the sharps?
The answer can be found by comparing the percentage of bets to dollars and how the line has moved. This Pac-12 over/under is a perfect example.
The total opened at 151.5. Nearly 60% of bets are taking the over, indicating public support. However, the under is receiving 56% of dollars, signaling smart money from respected players.
This total has also remained frozen at 151.5. Reading between the lines, this means the books aren’t too concerned about the public betting on the over, it’s the wiseguy under they’re sweating.
This game is being played on a neutral court, which provides added edge to unders thanks to the unfamiliar courts and a “road game atmosphere” for both sides.
Also, high totals are historically profitable this time of year. According to Bet Labs, conference tournament totals of 150 and above have gone under 57.2% of the time since 2005.
Northwestern vs. Illinois
9 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
Sharp angle: Northwestern (moved from +2 to +1.5)
We’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes disagreement when it comes to this Big Ten spread.
Illinois (11-20) opened as a short 2-point favorite against rival Northwestern (13-18). The public is pounding the Illini to the tune of 82% of spread bets, making them one of the most lopsided plays of the day.
However, despite this overwhelming recreational support, Illinois has fallen from -2 to -1.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to give the public an easier shot at covering?
If it looks too good to be true, it almost always is.
In situations such as this, public players double down on the Illini, knowing they can now bet them at a better number. But seasoned bettors know this reverse line movement was caused by wiseguys loading up on Northwestern, which created big liability for the house and forced them to adjust the line in favor of the short dog.
This Fade the Public spot has been historically profitable. Since 2005, conference tournament teams getting less than 25% of bets in the Power Conferences (Big East, Big 12, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC) have gone 55.2% ATS.
Depaul vs. St. John’s
9:30 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 155.5 to 154.5)
Recreational bettors are torn on this Big East over/under, but wiseguys have taken a clear side.
The total opened at 155.5. The public sees two high-scoring offenses (Depaul 76.97 PPG and St. John’s 78.13 PPG), but also a high total. As a result, they’re split right down the middle, with 50% taking the over and 50% taking the under.
However, the under has received nearly 80% of dollars, indicating heavy money banking on a low-scoring game. We also tracked a big steam move on the Under, with sharps crushing the Under 155.5 as soon as the line opened.
This under also fits the neutral court, high total conference under spot (57.2% since 2005).