Updated Final Four Odds, Chances, Projections: Duke and Virginia Lead the Way

As the NCAA Tournament progresses, things change. Quickly.

We’re updating each team’s chances to make each round of the NCAA Tournament using Sean Koerner’s projections. You can access those full projections and make spreads for every game in our bracket simulator.

There’s also a full round-by-round sortable table at the bottom of this post.

#1 Duke NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 85.2%
• Final 4: 60.4%
• Finals: 40.1%
• Win Championship: 26.8%

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#1 Virginia NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 84.1%
• Final 4: 53%
• Finals: 31.5%
• Win Championship: 15.5%

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#1 Gonzaga NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 75.2%
• Final 4: 47.4%
• Finals: 23.6%
• Win Championship: 13.8%

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#2 Kentucky NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 75.2%
• Final 4: 42.1%
• Finals: 21.7%
• Win Championship: 9.6%

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#1 North Carolina NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 69.1%
• Final 4: 38.9%
• Finals: 20.1%
• Win Championship: 8.8%

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#2 Michigan State NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 72.3%
• Final 4: 28.9%
• Finals: 14.7%
• Win Championship: 7.5%

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#2 Michigan NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 55.4%
• Final 4: 25.4%
• Finals: 10%
• Win Championship: 4.8%

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#2 Tennessee NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 55.4%
• Final 4: 25%
• Finals: 12.2%
• Win Championship: 4.8%

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#3 Texas Tech NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 44.6%
• Final 4: 18.2%
• Finals: 6.3%
• Win Championship: 2.7%

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#3 Purdue NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 44.6%
• Final 4: 17.9%
• Finals: 7.8%
• Win Championship: 2.6%

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#5 Auburn NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 30.9%
• Final 4: 11.5%
• Finals: 3.8%
• Win Championship: 1%

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#4 Florida State NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 24.8%
• Final 4: 9%
• Finals: 2.3%
• Win Championship: 0.7%

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#3 Houston NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 24.8%
• Final 4: 7.5%
• Finals: 2%
• Win Championship: 0.4%

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#3 LSU NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 27.7%
• Final 4: 5.9%
• Finals: 1.7%
• Win Championship: 0.5%

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#4 Virginia Tech NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 14.8%
• Final 4: 4.8%
• Finals: 1.3%
• Win Championship: 0.4%

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#12 Oregon NCAA Tournament Projections

• Elite 8: 15.9%
• Final 4: 4%
• Finals: 0.9%
• Win Championship: 0.2%

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Koerner’s Full Round-by-Round Projections for Every NCAA Tournament Team