Alabama vs. Southern Mississippi Odds & Model Prediction: Are Tide Just Slightly Overvalued?

Alabama vs. Southern Miss Odds

• Odds: Alabama -38
• Over/Under: 61.5
• Time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
• Location: Tuscaloosa, Ala.

All odds above as of Saturday at 6 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Nick Saban as a big favorite in a non-conference game? Things haven't always gone Alabama's way in these spots, at least for bettors. The Tide don't actually have any trouble winning, of course.

Below we give out our projected Alabama vs. Southern Miss odds and one key for each team to cover the spread. We've got picks on plenty of other college football games on Saturday, which you can find in The Action Network app or in our staff favorite bets piece.

Wilson's Model Prediction for Alabama vs. Southern Miss

Collin Wilson uses an oddsmaker-style approach to creating his own power ratings that can set a point spread between any two teams on a neutral field. 

Action EDGE members can get his projections for every Week 4 game here, and his full power ratings for all 130 teams are here.

Spread: Alabama -34.9
Over/Under: 69.7

A Persistent Theme

Whether it's because he takes his foot off the gas or just tries to work on different things, Saban tends to not cover as a huge favorite. That's where Alabama finds itself today.

The Tide are 9-14 against the spread as a favorite of at least 38 points under Saban. They failed to cover two weeks ago against New Mexico State as a 54-point favorite, narrowly missing the cover in a 62-10 win.

One Key for Alabama to Cover the Spread

Score enough early to get outside this big number.

Here are Alabama's scoring splits by quarter as a favorite of five touchdowns or more:

• 1st: 13.9
• 2nd: 15.5
• 3rd: 10.2
• 4th: 7.4

One Key for Southern Miss

Shorten the game.

Southern Miss ran just 53 plays on 12 drives in a loss to Mississippi State two weeks ago, missing out on the cover by a touchdown.

The Eagles have a veteran quarterback in Jack Abraham who is capable of making some plays, so their best chance to cover is to limit the number of possessions in the game and hope he can put up two scoring drives.

Here is Alabama's opponent's scoring by quarter when the Tide are a five-touchdown favorite.

• 1st: 0.8
• 2nd: 1.6
• 3rd: 1.9
• 4th: 1.9

See! Modest improvements!

Alabama vs. Southern Miss Picks

Our college football team is not endorsing a play on either side, but you can get picks from all of our betting experts on this game and many others in The Action Network app.

Odds & Line Shopping for Other Key College Football Games

Michigan State at Northwestern (+9, 37)
Michigan at Wisconsin (-3, 44.5)
California at Ole Miss (-2.5, 41.5)
Tennessee at Florida (-14, 48.5)
Southern Mississippi at Alabama (-38, 61.5)
LSU at Vanderbilt (+24, 62.5)
Miami (Ohio) at Ohio State (-38.5, 56)
UCF at Pittsburgh (+10.5, 61)
Washington at BYU (+6.5, 51)
Auburn at Texas A&M (-4, 47.5)
Notre Dame at Georgia (-14.5, 57.5)
SMU at TCU (-8, 55)
Central Michigan at Miami (Fla.) (-29.5, 48.5)
Kentucky at Mississippi State (-6, 47.5)
South Carolina at Missouri (-9, 61)
Oregon at Stanford (+10.5, 57.5)
Charlotte at Clemson (-41.5, 61.5)
Oklahoma State at Texas (-7, 72.5)
Nebraska at Illinois (+13.5, 62)
Colorado at Arizona State (-8.5, 48.5)
UCLA at Washington State (-18.5, 58)