NCAAF Moneyline Underdog Bets: Plus-Money Value for Week 11
Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: Rob Hanna (19) of the Syracuse Orange.
For the fifth straight season on our college football betting podcast (now Big Bets on Campus), Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
After three sweeps in four weeks, we have split in back-to-back weeks after Kansas got home for me but James Madison fell short at Louisville in a disappointing effort for Collin on a play I loved myself.
For Week 11, I'm kicking things off with a home dog at noon, while Collin will finish things up for us in prime time with another home conference pup.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays over 6-1 odds.
- 2018-21: 49-83 +4.1 units
- 2022: 10-10 +8.03 units
- Overall: 57-93 +12.13 units
Stuckey: Arkansas +155
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 61.5 -115o / -105u | -180 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 61.5 -115o / -105u | +155 |
This could be the situational home underdog spot of the year.
One week after upsetting Alabama on a walk-off two-point conversion in overtime, LSU will have to regain focus for an 11 a.m. local kick in Fayetteville. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks suffered a bad home loss to Liberty after falling behind 21-0.
Buy low, sell high, anybody?
The Tigers have certainly improved as the season has progressed, as I anticipated in Brian Kelly's first season. However, this feels like the top of the market for a team that should have lost at Auburn last month.
Look, LSU will score its fair share of points against a bad Arkansas defense. The Hogs lack push up front (101st in Line Yards) and really miss All-American safety Jalen Catalon, who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1.
They also lost defensive back Myles Slusher, who received a one-week suspension after last weekend's arrest. His versatility will be missed, but he's struggled (primarily playing strong safety) since returning from injury.
In a home hype spot, the Razorbacks have the bodies that can step up on defense.
On the other side of the ball, Arkansas has a few potential advantages. It has one of the nation's best offensive lines, which paves the way for a powerful ground game in a rush-first offense.
It could play the ball-control game against an LSU defense that has had trouble against the run. The Tigers rank below average nationally in both Rush Success Rate, yards per rush and EPA per Rush.
When KJ Jefferson does drop back to throw, he has actually been one of the most underrated passers in the country, especially when considering he lost Treylon Burks to the NFL. He's been especially elite when under pressure.
For what it's worth, Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is an impressive 12-6 against the spread record as an underdog, covering by 4.25 points per game. That includes an 8-3 ATS (72.7%) mark against top-20 teams with a perfect 6-0 mark excluding games against Alabama and Georgia.
This is simply too good of a spot to pass up. Woo Pig Sooie.
Pick: Arkansas +155 |
Wilson: Syracuse +245
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -102 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -310 |
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -120 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +245 |
First off, I project this spread much lower, so there's value in the number. I also think this is the right time to buy back into a Syracuse team that may be a bit undervalued after three straight losses and non-covers in uninspired efforts.
Plus, the Orange do not allow explosive plays, ranking in the top 20 nationally in that category against both the run and pass. That's important against Florida State.
They also have major advantages in the tackling department and excel at limiting scoring opportunities, ranking sixth in FBS in Finishing Drives.
It's worth noting that quarterback Garret Shrader is dealing with an injury. That means Carlos Del Rio-Wilson could get his second straight start.
No matter who lines up under center, Syracuse can lean on star running back Sean Tucker. He should find plenty of holes to burst through against a Florida State defense that ranks outside the top 90 in both Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
After dominating Miami in a rivalry game, it's also not out of the question that Florida State comes out a bit flat. I think this is a good spot to sell the 'Noles.
Pick: Syracuse +245 |
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