Week 4’s afternoon slate brings us a few fascinating matchups, including conference battles between Auburn vs. Oklahoma (the Jackson Arnold revenge game) and NC State vs. Duke.
Check out more of our expert college football betting content for Week 4 below in our college football odds and NCAAF picks for Saturday, Sept. 20.
College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
 | Afternoon | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Collin's Card: Afternoon Best Bet
Despite toppling Baylor, Auburn had several red flags pop up.
The Bears beat the Tigers in overall yards per play while exposing a secondary that has issues in coverage and tackling fundamentals.
Auburn ranks 105th nationally in Tackling, per PFF. That could be troublesome against the top four targets in Oklahoma's passing attack, as Deion Burks, Keontez Lewis, Isaiah Sategna and Jaren Kanak have forced 17 missed tackles after the catch.
Auburn will look to continue playing Cover 3 and quarters against Oklahoma, but it also ranks 122nd nationally in PFF's Coverage grades, which could spell trouble for the Sooners.
Furthermore, Sooner quarterback John Mateer has engineered one of the most dangerous offenses in the nation when behind the chains.
Oklahoma sits 11th nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate and 22nd in Explosiveness, compared to an Auburn defense that sits outside the top 100 in Late Downs Explosiveness allowed.
Check out Collin's full Auburn-Oklahoma breakdown and the rest of his Week 4 card below:
Pick: Oklahoma -6.5 or Better
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Stuckey's Spots: Afternoon Best Bet
By Stuckey
It's time to buy the dip on Duke following two losses against Illinois and Tulane. If the Blue Devils want to even sniff some of their high preseason expectations, they absolutely need this game.
Well, I believe they'll at least get back on track against an NC State team that has raced out to a 3-0 start but has looked shaky at times in all three close victories against East Carolina, Wake Forest and Virginia.
I've liked some of the things I've seen from the Wolfpack offense. Still, the defense has taken a major step back after the talent drain in the offseason, in addition to the loss of highly respected defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, who left to take the Marshall head coach position.
It's also worth noting the Wolfpack will have to make do without stud defensive end Sabastian Harsh in the first half due to a targeting suspension. That's a big loss.
Duke has had a more challenging schedule and has been the unluckier team in terms of turnovers, fourth-down variance and other areas. The Blue Devils finished with a -5 turnover margin against Illinois and even had three failed field-goal attempts (one blocked and one failed snap) in a seven-point loss at Tulane.
The Blue Devils don't have the same coverage chops as last year, as they haven't found adequate replacements for cornerback Josh Pickett (now with the Broncos) and future NFL safety Terry Moore (currently injured).
Still, they should at least slow down running back Hollywood Smothers, the engine of NC State's offense.
I'm buying low on a desperate Duke effort that may have some overdue regression headed its way.
I project the Blue Devils as 4.1-point favorites, and NC State hasn't won in Durham since 2008.
Check out the rest of Stuckey's Week 4 situational spots here:
Pick: Duke -3 (-105, bet365)
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Ianniello's G5 Card: Afternoon Best Bet
Aside from Kent State, I believe Ball State is the worst team in the country.
The Cardinals rank 128th nationally in Success Rate allowed despite having played two below-average offenses and an FCS school. Last week, New Hampshire put up nearly 400 yards of offense and had the ball late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win.
The Cardinals have zero passing attack with quarterback Kiael Kelly. The only way they can move the ball is with Qua Ashley breaking a big, explosive run.
Meanwhile, UConn ranks in the top 25 nationally in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
The Huskies’ defense has been up and down, but Saturday is a get-right spot for them against a one-dimensional offense. They looked good against Syracuse in Week 1 before a letdown spot last week against Delaware.
UConn quarterback Joe Fagnano has been terrific, averaging 288 yards per game with five touchdowns and no interceptions. His top target, Skyler Bell, is among the best Group of 5 receivers and should shred the Ball State secondary.
I also expect the running game to cook behind the Cam Edwards-Mel Brown duo. Edwards is averaging over six yards per carry, while Brown is averaging nearly 10.
After back-to-back frustrating losses for the Huskies, they should come out here and get right against Ball State, taking out some of their frustrations.
Check out the rest of Ianniello's Week 4 Group of 5 card here:
Pick: UConn -21 (-110, bet365)
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Our Featured Bet Labs System
This game triggered one of our Action Labs PRO Betting Systems, powered by our guy Evan Abrams.
Unfamiliar Blowout Overs is a college football system that identifies high-scoring potential in non-conference games where mismatches often lead to inflated point totals.
During the regular season, when the home team is heavily favored by more than 30 points, the talent gap is wide enough that scoring can come quickly and often.
Non-conference opponents are less familiar with each other’s schemes, which reduces defensive preparation and increases the likelihood of big plays.
By focusing on games where the closing total is below sixty, the system finds situations where expectations are modest despite the conditions favoring offense.
In these contests, the stronger team can pile on points while the underdog often contributes through late scoring in garbage time, pushing results over the total more often than anticipated.
Pick: Over 55.5 (-110, bet365)
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Duck's Full Action App Card
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