Hawaii vs. Nevada Odds, Picks, Prediction: College Football’s Late-Night Betting Preview

Hawaii vs. Nevada Odds, Picks, Prediction: College Football’s Late-Night Betting Preview article feature image
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Darryl Oumi/Getty Images. Pictured: Dedricl Parson.

  • Hawaii and Nevada conclude Saturday's college football slate.
  • The Rainbow Warriors had last week off, while the Wolf Pack are riding hot with a 4-1 record.
  • Check out Kody Malstrom's breakdown and top pick of the game, below.

Hawaii vs. Nevada Odds

Hawaii Odds +14
Nevada Odds -14
Moneyline +435 / -600
Over/Under 60.5
Time 10:30 p.m. ET
TV CBS Sports Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Baseball. Apple pie. Hot dogs. Chasing day bets on a losing day with a Hawaii game late at night. All some of America’s favorite pastimes.

While I never recommend chasing losses on a losing day, I will always recommend watching the late-night Hawaii games. They’re always entertaining for your viewing pleasure whether you have money on it or not.

Hawaii comes into this game 3-3, with a bye last weekend. Before the break, it picked up a huge win over Fresno State. The Rainbow Warriors come into this one refreshed and ready for potential first-round NFL Draft pick Carson Strong.

Nevada sits at 4-1, coming off of a track meet against NM State. Winning 41-21, Strong looks to build on his resume this season and continue to climb up the draft boards.

In a much anticipated high-scoring affair, both the Wolf Pack and Rainbow Warriors will look to battle in an exciting shootout to end the night.


Hawaii vs. Nevada Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 16
10:30 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Hawaii Offense

Sometimes when the product you watch is so ugly, it’s somehow even more entertaining. That’s the Hawaii offense, which boasts some gross offensive metrics.

The Rainbow Warriors struggle to pass the ball, they constantly turn it over, and they can’t score past the 40 — all recipes for a disaster of an offense.

Yet, they still won their last one against Fresno in a shocker, all while playing backup quarterback Brayden Schager. Schager threw for 116 yards on 11-of-27 passing for two touchdowns and zero interceptions. The numbers weren’t pretty, but a win is a win.

Whether they roll with Schager again or starter Chevan Cordeiro comes back (probable), they will have great protection.

The Hawaii offensive line ranks 17th in pass block, a metric it will need to continue to succeed at, as Nevada has a ferocious pass rush.


Hawaii Defense

This may be a long day for the Hawaii secondary.

Not only is its Def. Pass Success near the bottom of the nation at 102nd, but it also has to go against one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Nevada’s Strong.

Not all hope is lost, though, as Nevada has one of the worst offensive lines in the nation. If Hawaii wants to avoid this one getting out of hand fast, it will need to get to Strong consistently and force him to make mistakes.

Getting to the quarterback will be more important than ever, as Hawaii is prone to giving up the big play. With a defensive big play ranking of 120th, Strong will be looking to throw the big one any chance he can get if his offensive line can stop the rush and buy him time in the pocket.

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Nevada Wolf Pack

Nevada Offense

He’s already been mentioned multiple times, but Nevada’s offense starts and ends with Strong.

He has flown up the draft boards as the season has progressed, throwing for 1,595 yards, 14 touchdowns, and three interceptions at a 69.3% completion percentage. This has led Nevada to a Pass Success ranking of 12th in the nation.

Nevada relies heavily on Strong’s arm, as it owns one of the lowest rush rates in the nation. The effectiveness of the passing game shows, as Nevada has six receivers averaging over 10 yards per reception.

The offensive line will need to step it up if it wants Strong to keep cooking, as it ranks 112th in pass blocking. If the blocking holds up, Strong will look to torch Hawaii’s poor pass defense all night.


Nevada Defense

While Nevada’s offense is electric, its defense leaves much to be desired.

While Hawaii’s run game is nothing special, Nevada’s rush defense is capable of making any opposing run game look good. Ranking 122nd in Def. Rush Success and 97th in Def. Line Yards, its defensive line has been getting ripped to shreds this season.

Not only do they struggle to defend the rush, but the Wolf Pack also struggle against the pass.

Ranking 91st in Def. Pass Success, they will need to rely on getting pressure on the quarterback to ease the burden on the secondary. Nevada ranks 21st in Def. Pass Rush, but it will have its hands full with that task, as the Hawaii offensive line ranks 17th in pass blocking.


Hawaii vs. Nevada Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Hawaii and Nevada match up statistically:

Hawaii Offense vs. Nevada Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 69 122
Line Yards 86 97
Pass Success 110 91
Pass Blocking** 17 21
Big Play 21 15
Havoc 113 74
Finishing Drives 106 95
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Nevada Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 90 87
Line Yards 70 61
Pass Success 12 102
Pass Blocking** 112 50
Big Play 59 120
Havoc 33 44
Finishing Drives 73 55
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 59 105
Coverage 87 46
Middle 8 110 2
SP+ Special Teams 40 57
Plays per Minute 19 48
Rush Rate 49.3% (100) 36.6% (127)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


When it comes to betting on a total, you need both sides to produce to feel comfortable about it. For an over, you want the underdog to be able to put up points as you expect the favorite to do its part.

With that said, the statistical analysis that catches my eye is Hawaii’s Finishing Drives rate against Nevada’s Def. Finishing Drive rate. Strong will get his, but will Hawaii do its part?


Hawaii vs. Nevada Betting Pick

I think so Hawaii will do enough, and that’s why I’m on the over.

Strong is the truth right now. Eviscerating opposing secondaries, he will be a kid in a candy shop picking apart the Rainbow Warriors’ pass defense.

With a Rush Rate that sits at the bottom of the nation , Nevada will be airing it out all game. This presents more opportunities for the big play, a slower clock, and scoring opportunities.

With such a high total, we will need Hawaii to do its part as well. I believe it will find a way, as Nevada’s defense is horrible. If the pass blocking holds up, Hawaii will have opportunities to drive down the field.

If the Rainbow Warriors can take advantage of the poor Nevada defense, I may take a look at a live add on Hawaii’s spread. I will need to have it prove to me that it can score when it makes its way past the 40.

I grabbed the opener at 59.5 and would play this up to 61.

Pick: Over 59.5

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