Tulane vs. USF Odds, Picks: Where Does Value Lie in AAC College Football Battle?

Tulane vs. USF Odds

Saturday, Oct. 15

4 p.m. ET

ESPNU

Tulane Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-12 -110	55 -110o / -110u	-435

USF Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+12 -110	55 -110o / -110u	+350

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Watch out, because Tulane looks like the best team in the AAC.

The defense is legit. Starting quarterback Michael Pratt beat up on East Carolina and backup quarterback Kai Horton did enough to beat Houston. Tulane is 5-1 on the season and tied atop the conference standings with Luke Fickell's Cincinnati Bearcats.

Tulane now flies east to face a South Florida Bulls team that has fallen short of expectations. The Bulls are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS.

But maybe South Florida will catch Tulane sleeping on a hot and humid day in Tampa. The Bulls only need to cover 12.

What should we expect? Where does the value lie?

Tulane Green Wave

This defense has been so effective. The Green Wave's advanced statistics are a mixed bag, but the team is good against the run (25th in Rush Success Rate Allowed) and good when it matters most (23rd in Points Per Opportunity Allowed).

The Green Wave are allowing just 151 passing yards per game and 135 rushing yards per game. They rank eighth in PFF's Tackling grades and are allowing 4.3 YPP.

The offensive statistics are also a mixed bag. The offensive line has yet to regroup after losing its all-time career starts leader in left guard Corey Dublin. Tulane is outside the top 100 in both Offensive Line Yards and PFF's Pass Blocking grades.

Somehow, the aerial attack has been relatively effective despite all that.

Tulane ranks among the top 50 in Pass Success Rate. Pratt had a tough game against Kansas State, but has otherwise been lights out, including putting up 326 yards and two touchdowns while completing 80% of his passes against East Carolina last week.

However, it's pretty clear Pratt isn't working under an ideal situation.

South Florida Bulls

I had high hopes for South Florida entering the season, as this is the second-most experienced roster in the FBS. 19 starters returned and the Bulls replaced a bad quarterback room with former Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon.

However, Bohanon has been horrendous and the defense is allowing over seven YPP. Any hope for a productive season from South Florida ended when the Bulls lost 51-20 to BYU.

The Bulls can run the ball. South Florida is 17th in Rush Success Rate this season, averaging over five YPC and over 180 rushing yards per game. Bohanon is completing just 55% of his passes with a 5:6 TD-to-INT ratio, but he has significantly added to the ground game.

Unfortunately, it all goes to waste when Bohanon makes throws like this:

The defense is allowing over six YPC and ranks outside the top 100 in Points Per Opportunity Allowed.

South Florida was 4-0 ATS as a home dog last season, but is 0-3 as an overall underdog this season. I'm hopeful the fighting Bohanons can be frisky in this game, but I'm not very hopeful.

Tulane vs. USF Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulane and USF match up statistically:

Tulane Offense vs. USF Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	91	92
Line Yards	99	99
Pass Success	49	114
Pass Blocking**	117	122
Havoc	56	74
Finishing Drives	73	100
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

USF Offense vs. Tulane Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	17	25
Line Yards	45	84
Pass Success	126	55
Pass Blocking**	72	40
Havoc	94	93
Finishing Drives	67	23
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	52	100
PFF Coverage	8	82
SP+ Special Teams	91	45
Seconds per Play	27.4 (86)	27.6 (93)
Rush Rate	57.6% (36)	56.8% (41)

Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Tulane vs. USF Betting Pick

South Florida is going to run into a brick wall. The Tulane defense is elite against the run and that's the only way the Bulls can move the ball. Bohanon may attempt to create chunk passing plays — which he's unable to do consistently — but Tulane is fifth nationally in Explosive plays Allowed.

South Florida is vulnerable to the ground game, but Tulane doesn't have a great ground game.

No matter what happens, both teams will continue to commit to the run. These teams are top-40 in rush rate and bottom-40 in seconds per play. I don't expect either team to go away from this strategy, even if it's going to be their detriment.

That means we're getting a clock-moving rock fight. I have three other stats to prove my point:

• Our Action PRO projections make this total just 51.
• Tulane is 5-1 to the under this season.
• The past two matchups between the two teams have gone under.

At anything above 53, I'll be on the under.

Pick: Under 55 at PointsBet (Play to 53.5)