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The North Dakota State Bison take on the Hawai'i Warriors in Honolulu, Hawaii, on Saturday, Nov. 14. Kickoff is set for 11 p.m. ET on The CW.
North Dakota State is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -240. The total is set at 38.5 points.
Here’s my North Dakota State vs. Hawaii prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14.
North Dakota State vs Hawaii Prediction
- North Dakota State vs. Hawaii Pick: Under 38.5Â (-110)
My Hawaii vs. North Dakota State best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
North Dakota State vs Hawaii Odds
| North Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +198 |
- North Dakota State vs Hawaii point spread: North Dakota State -6.5 (-115), Hawaii +6.5 (-105)
- North Dakota State vs Hawaii over/under: 38.5 (-110o / -110u)
- North Dakota State vs Hawaii moneyline: North Dakota State -240, Hawaii +198
North Dakota State vs Hawaii College Football Preview
North Dakota State Bison Betting Preview: Lost Their Bite
North Dakota State has experienced a very successful first season at the FBS level, as the Bison sit at 7-2 and are still in the hunt to win the Mountain West Conference, although it will require winning out.
Last time out, at home against lowly UTEP, NDSU was in a serious battle for three quarters of a very close, hard-fought game. The game was 17-7 with under three minutes left in the fourth quarter before two very late scores made the final score 31-7.
The Bison have shown toughness and physicality in the trenches, and the defense has outperformed my expectations this season with the elevated level of competition faced.
The front has been serviceable against the run, but it hasn't been quite to the level we were used to seeing when NDSU played at the FCS level.
The defense is excellent against the pass, and getting teams off the field on third down has been critical. Air Force is the only team to amass more than 330 total yards or 21 points against NDSU's defense.
The Bison will run the football a lot here. It's what they do. But the problem is that the offensive line and running back play haven't been nearly as dominant or explosive this season due to a combination of less talented players and stiffer competition.
This isn't the vaunted NDSU team that can line up in 22 personnel and run the ball 30 times in the second half without being stopped.
In fact, NDSU hasn't averaged five yards per carry rushing in any game this season. Remember — this bunch has played UTEP, Sacramento State and Fordham. Not good.
Nathan Hayes has been a decent quarterback this season, but there has been very little "wow factor" out of the passing game. Hayes has completed 64% of his passes for 1,710 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Not bad, but not earth-shattering.
Jackson Williams is the alpha in the receiver room with 42 catches for 614 yards, while tight end Reis Kessel is the biggest red-zone threat.
The offense is serviceable, but this isn't a strong unit.
Hawai'i Warriors Betting Preview: Neither Run Nor Shoot
Hawaii has been a disaster this season, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. The run-and-shoot offense isn’t runnin’ or shootin’, as the Rainbow Warriors remain one of the least explosive offensive attacks in the country.
The explosion of points on the road against NIU was an anomaly not likely to be repeated the rest of the way this season.
Quarterback Micah Alejado hasn't regressed, but he hasn’t taken a significant step forward this season either. And how could he? With the depleted offensive line and receiver groups, he didn’t stand a chance to make progress this season.
Alejado has faced significant pressure all season, battled injuries and has had no continuity with his receivers.
Kainoa Carvalho and Audric Harris are the leading receivers, and they've combined to catch 58 passes for 830 yards with one combined touchdown.
Only one Hawaii receiver has multiple touchdown catches this season, and Alejado has thrown just 10 touchdowns the entire season.
The Bows are running the ball more than in prior seasons, and while they're not effective, the run game has kept defenses honest by forcing them to defend something other than five- to seven-yard passes.
The Hawaii defense was such a strong component of last year’s team, and a tremendous amount of talent was lost to graduation or the portal after 2025 concluded.
This year’s stop unit has actually played admirably, as Hawaii’s offense has been terrible and put this group in tough positions game after game.
Six times, opponents have been held to 21 points or less, and the Bows have only surrendered more than 400 total yards against Power 4-level opponents on the road.
North Dakota State vs Hawaii Pick, Betting Analysis
This game opened with NDSU as an 8.5-point favorite, and Hawaii has taken money in the market. The Bison are currently 6.5-point favorites.
The total opened at 41.5, and I did bet the under right away. The total currently sits at 38.5. This is the lowest purchase point I would have on the under, and it would be a small play at 38.5.
This game will be played at a slow pace. Hawaii is averaging 71 plays per game and utilized a significant uptick in pace against NIU and UTEP on the road.
But NDSU isn't going to play that style of game. The Bison don't allow explosive plays, and the defense will put Hawaii out of rhythm.
The defense doesn't have stars, but the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. When you consider NDSU's ability to prevent explosive pass plays, create pressure in the trenches and stop opponents in the red zone, it all points to Hawaii struggling to move the ball.
Hawaii's red-zone offense has been poor all season, as the Bows have converted 16-of-34 trips into touchdowns. Six of those touchdowns came against Northern Illinois, but there was quite a stretch where Hawaii couldn't score in the red zone.
I think we see that repeat itself here.
North Dakota State has allowed just seven red-zone touchdowns all season, so the Bows either have to settle for field goals or make tough fourth-down decisions in close.
NDSU will be a fish out of water on the island. The Bison will likely hunker down and run the ball, like we've seen for much of the season. The Bison have an effective rushing attack, but the unit isn't explosive.
They're comfortable in low-scoring, field-position games, and that's what should happen here.
Lastly, the wind will be a factor in this game. All three of my reliable weather sources show consistent winds of 22-24 MPH with gusts of 27-31 MPH. This will unquestionably affect the Hawaii passing offense and field-goal kicking.
The wind will be howling, and these offenses will have to fight through it, but this game should end up being a slow-burning grind.
Pick: Under 38.5
North Dakota State vs Hawaii Betting Trends
