If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Utah State Aggies take on the San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, California, on Saturday, Nov. 14. Kickoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET on USA.
Utah State is favored by 2.5 (-125) points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. San Diego State is a 2.5-point (+105) underdog with a moneyline of +132. The over/under is set at 43.5 total points (-110o / -110u).
Here’s my Utah State vs. San Diego State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14.
Utah State vs San Diego State Predictions and Picks
- Utah State vs. San Diego State Pick: Utah State -3 (-105 or Better)
My San Diego State vs. Utah State best bet is on the Aggies to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Utah State vs San Diego State Odds, Spread, Line
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -125 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| San Diego St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +132 |
- Utah State vs San Diego State point spread: Utah State -2.5 (-125), San Diego State +2.5 (+105)
- Utah State vs San Diego State over/under: 43.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Utah State vs San Diego State moneyline: Utah State -160, San Diego State +132
Utah State vs San Diego State College Football Preview and Best Bets
Utah State Aggies Betting Trends, Props
It was a disappointing start for Bronco Mendenhall's second season in Logan, but things have started to look more promising recently.
Utah State is 4-5 on the season, with three wins in its last four games. The most recent loss was a valiant effort, a three-point loss on the road at Texas State.
The story for this Aggies team is the defense. Mendenhall and defensive coordinator Nick Howell are fielding one of the most dominant defenses in the Group of 6. U
tah State ranks in the top 40 nationally in Success Rate allowed. They have allowed fewer than 21 points in four straight games, including against Texas State and Colorado State, two of the Pac-12's top offenses.
The run defense in particular has been terrific, allowing just 113.4 rushing yards per game, 29th in the country. Linebacker Asher Cunningham has been dominant in the middle of this defense. He leads the team and ranks fourth in the conference with 73 tackles on the season. He has also added 9.5 tackles for loss and three sacks.
Utah State does a great job limiting explosives thanks to two hard-hitting safeties in the back of this defense, Brevin Hamblin and David Kabongo. The two of them are tackling machines for the Aggies.
Defense has needed to carry Utah State this season because the offense has been dreadful. The Aggies are just 123rd in Success Rate and have scored more than 21 points just once all season.
Things have looked a little better since switching back to McCae Hillstead over the last two games. He is at least mobile and adds a dangerous component with his legs. Hillstead rushed for 135 yards and two touchdowns over the last two games.
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Trends, Props
After going 9-4 last season and finishing tied atop the conference standings, San Diego State has taken a bit of a step back this season, already with five losses at 4-5.
It lost its defensive coordinator to Nebraska this offseason and is now also without starting quarterback Jayden Denegal.
The offense had already been struggling, ranking 125th in Success Rate on the season, and now has to rely on redshirt freshman Stone Saunders as his replacement.
Saunders has gone 1-1 as the starter with two touchdowns and three interceptions. He threw it all over the yard in a shootout with Colorado State but was more underwhelming against Washington State, going from 369 passing yards to just 102 in his first two starts.
San Diego State likely wants to lean on the running game more with standout back Lucky Sutton.
After rushing for 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns last year, Sutton has battled injuries this season, missing three games. But he has looked fully healthy recently, rushing for 323 yards in the last three games.
Javion Kinnard has also been terrific sharing the backfield with Sutton. They both average over 75 yards per game on the ground.
It seems so weird to say this about a San Diego State team, but defense has been a massive issue for the Aztecs. What has been its biggest calling card for seemingly as long as I can remember has been a disaster this season.
After finishing ninth in the country in Success Rate allowed last season, San Diego State sits 135th in the country this season.
Only seven teams have allowed more points than the Aztecs this season. Toledo put up 41, Oregon State put up 66, and Colorado State put up 56.
Every single opponent has scored at least 20 points on this defense. They rank outside the top 130 in Success Rate allowed against both the run and the pass.
How To Make My Utah State vs San Diego State Pick
If there was ever a game for Utah State to get something going on offense, this is the matchup. Everybody has been able to move the ball on this San Diego State defense.
Utah State has looked better on offense under Hillstead. He is a veteran quarterback, and his rushing ability gives the Aggies a much-needed boost.
San Diego State wants to run the ball with Sutton and Kinnard and ideally would not ask its backup quarterback to do too much. But good luck running the ball against this Aggies front seven.
Utah State sits 29th nationally in run defense and has been terrific up front. The Aggies have held each of their last three opponents under 100 total rushing yards.
They have allowed just 58.7 rushing yards per game over that stretch. That includes Texas State and Colorado State, who are first and third in the Pac-12 in rushing this season. They held Fresno State to 16 total rushing yards on 27 carries last week.
The Aggies enter this game in much better form right now. They have won two games in a row, the offense looks more capable with Hillstead, and the defense is playing absolutely lights out.
My one concern would be Utah State's struggles on the road this season (they're 0-4 on the road), but the Aggies have won four of the last meetings with San Diego State, including three straight wins in California.
Pick: Utah State -3 (-105 or Better)
Utah State vs San Diego State Betting Trends
